True. It appears there isn't much discussion on the multi deck game. 21mgr started a thread about 8 deck and it lasted about 8 posts.Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash
But these changed threads go on for 200 posts. Create confusion to confound the understanding.
You neglect to focus on the subject of the phrase, namely gathering enough information to make low cost decisions. Playing in a casino isn't about counting and making bets. It is about gathering information and using it intelligently. To use it intelligently you must have done two things. The first is gather enough useful information so intelligent decisions can be made. The second is researching your count stats enough to know what an intelligent use of the information is. If you count is very poor at betting accurately then being almost at the border of a betting bin really doesn't mean anything because you may be way off the actual advantage in the first place. But you can still favor the bet closer to the last bet made. I think one of BigPlayers great advice hinted at this. He said to be successful you must be willing to make your change from one hand to 2 or raise your bet off your waiting bet before you have an advantage but the advantage seems imminent. Your move is not when they expect it but at practically no cost you are in position to not change bets much when the advantage hits. Waiting for advantage to hit makes you easy to pick off. The better the information you gather and the more you understand your count and the playing decisions advantage gain the more you can use that information to your advantage in the way of being tolerated while counting.
I give advice that shapes a counter's plans on how to progress as a counter over time. If they want to have any chance at success they need to have a plan of progression as their skills and knowledge increase. Making them believe that the simplest approach is all they need is a recipe for disaster. It makes it sound like they will be an expert counter in weeks. It takes around a year or years of research and study to become an expert. There is a weird thing about beginners. They tend to be underfunded. The techniques people say are not worth it in many cases are worth the most to an underfunded player. The trouble is they need to dedicate a lot of time to learning and research to be ready. The get pushed out to play way too quickly using simple approaches. An underfunded player is trying to outrun ruin. Quoting Don, If he busts out it is likely to be quick because EV growth he should be having reduces RoR quickly. After and more certain BR growth allows a player to outrun ruin faster. This is about being an underfunded player not a beginner. A beginner can choose to rush out before he is ready with a simple count and risk his small BR or he can study and save a bigger BR so he can play better to a smaller initial RoR. Which is the better advice for the beginner? Play to a really high RoR when you can do a simple count but still don't know how to be an AP or choose a count whether simple or complex and play to a much lower RoR after spending a lot more time learning money management, table selection, wonging styles, selecting good conditions when all tables have the same rules and pen, the importance of scouting to managing your use of other information, how to get and use player options on a misdeal, what to do with additional information, how to handle the pit to get the best conditions, how not to look and act like a counter, etc. You guys have him rushing out there and playing a system that is not well tailored to a weak BR when they don't know anything about being an AP that is beyond counting. That is about the worst advice you can give a beginner. Learning to count and the index plays doesn't take much time for any count. Being ready to play like an AP in the casino takes a long time of study and research. Please tell beginners that. So many learn to count a simple system and then come to Flash or me to save them and make them professionals. I select pupils very carefully. I don't waste time with people that have untrainable personalities. I don't have time for that. But Flash is always taking on new students.
I recommend Don's book as the bible constantly. As for chapter 10, I said repeatedly that if you have the BR and stomach to withstand the swings it really doesn't matter what count you use. The slash and burn camp is full of simple count user's. These are pros that use huge spreads with huge BR's while anticipating a quick BO so count selection isn't that much of an issue. Simple counts suit their game fine. They write of winning and losing $250K regularly. The trouble is most people seeking information to better their game don't have a huge BR and swings are a large concern. Their RoR is unacceptably high so outrunning ruin is the prime consideration. Second there are two facets to counting. First is the count's statistics from sims. That is what chapter 10 is about. Second is getting away with using your count in the casino. There all counts aren't created equal. And the things you do to get away with counting can really hurt your sim figure or hardly affect it depending on how accurate the information gathered is for the decision being made. About half the difference of performance between counts is the different optimal bet sizes for the same spread, BR, and RoR on the same game. The other half is the count actually performing better independent of optimal bet differences. Chapter 10 only addresses the the sim results half and not the casino use half. That is why I am absolutely not contradicting chapter 10. If you have a huge BR and don't care about a BO the count you use doesn't matter one bit. If you want to play for longevity there is a lot more to it than the count you use but some counts gather more useful information that can be used toward that end if used intelligently. This is my addition to chapter 10. The other half of the equation for people that care about longevity.
I consider the above quote an extreme insult to chapter ten. The numbers in the sims that make up chapter chapter ten, again have proven themselves true for many years for myself.
Very insulting Tthree. Think whatever you like.
I am a big fan of bigplayer, and I am aware of the quote, only I have seen a slightly different version from him saying it. I remember him saying you need to make your biggest jump at a TC of +2 to which you most likely think is a waiting bet anyway.
You and I do not see eye to eye and that is fine no problem.
Last edited by BoSox; 12-30-2016 at 01:41 PM.
At TC +2 my version of Hiopt2/BASC has a +0.69% advantage in S17,DAS,LS 75% pen 6 deck. I am sure BP was referring to Hilo which would have a larger advantage. The less info you gather the less you can do intelligently with the info that you do gather. That is just basic common sense. I know what they think I would do as a counter given the cards removed on the last round and I know what the optimal move is and the cost of deviating from the optimal in order to opposition bet. Sometimes optimal play is opposition betting and sometimes you see the opportunity to opposition bet at almost no cost. But you need to gather different information that their standard to have that opportunity. If you use what they are using to get their what you will do then not doing it is expensive. There is no opportunity to opposition bet that isn't costly. What they expect you to do is based on the count both you and the catchers are using. He can walk up to the table not knowing the count and see these cards removed with that many decks remaining and know how it affects your advantage estimate. If you didn't gather the information in a different manner than they are basing their assumption on deviating from what is expected will be costly. That is a given because the expectation is just what you count says to do. I don't know why you are having trouble with it. gather more information or information differently and your assessment can be different enough to allow either optimal opposition betting or almost cost free opposition betting. Remember opposition betting is betting in opposition of how their count moves. If you use the same count it is also in opposition to how your count moves. If you don't it is a different story quite often. That is why I like unusual counts that gather and use information in unusual ways.
Tthree, first you definitely are in fact disagreeing with chapter 10 in BJ Attack 3 without question. Here is the reason why:
Chapter 10 is only about sims period. Getting away with using a cc system is covered in Chapter 7.
Obviously you do not agree with the sims in chapter 10 when you wrote the following:
"Looking like you don't know what you are doing with a simple count means actually playing stupid and usually at a high cost. You just don't have enough useful info to make smart plays that look stupid. You don't even have good enough info to make bets and plays that are accurate."
" As for chapter 10, I said repeatedly that if you have the BR and stomach to withstand the swings it really doesn't matter what count you use. The slash and burn camp is full of simple count user's. These are pros that use huge spreads with huge BR's while anticipating a quick BO so count selection isn't that much of an issue. Simple counts suit their game fine. They write of winning and losing $250K regularly."
If this is not in fact a direct contradiction to chapter 10 I do not know what is. I believe the sims in the chapter, and you apparently do not. I also believe i am doing the right things to get away with it at higher stakes tables. Since no two players play the same system the exact same way, "no offense meant" please do not try to judge me.
Bosox, you're not quite "getting it" with what T3 has mentioned. He's not so much refuting the contents of the chapter, but pointing out how useless/useful the information can be depending upon your desired game.
Let me put it like this. If everyone around the world read Don's book, and played according to Don's suggestions, there would be no successful card counters in the world. You'd all be so focused on using the right count, playing the right indices, and right bet sizing and timing, that you'd miss focusing and mastering the core tenets of what being an AP is truly about, and you'd all ultimately end up being banned.
Nothing about he or his his literature truly educates the reader on how to be an AP, and unfortunately its bred way too many blind followers. Don is all about the mathematics and proving that the game can be beaten, even going as far as teaching how to do it, and providing all of the required material to show it being done.
Don's mathematics are sound, his advice about how to become an AP, or how to master all that encompasses the AP world, however, is not.
I won't hold it against you since you spent so much time on Wall Street trying to outperform the S&P 500 while taking your commissions"Don's mathematics are sound, his advice about how to become an AP, or how to master all that encompasses the AP world, however, is not."
I guess that's because I never really played the game or won any money at it -- just wrote about the math.
Don
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