Luck at Home vs. Luck at Casino

[21zen]

I am a newer player, but my roommate and I have played a lot at home, so I know what I'm doing. I don't count cards. We play with a 6-deck shoe and all the cards are correct. My issue is - why am I so much luckier at home than in the casino? Am I just imagining this? It seems it should be about the same. At the casino I don't play with more than two other players at the table. We mimic this at home. At home it seems that I hit a bad shoe about 25% of the time. At the casino it sometimes seems like I hit them 75% of the time. Am I imagining this, or . . . ? Why would the casino be different? I am going to a casino in the Midwest, but it seemed to be the same at Treasure Island in Vegas. At home we end the shoe about 9 cards from the end. At the casino they seem to end it further in. Does this make a big difference? Thank you!

[DSchles]

Absolutely none of what you're saying or doing makes any difference whatsoever except if you are playing more accurately at home, because you're forced to play faster in the casino and you make mistakes. Of course, we also assume that the rules are identical and that you're not playing under less favorable rules at the casino.

It's impossible to draw any conclusions from your personal results, which comprise a much too small sample to have any statistical meaning.

Don

[Intermediate]

At home we end the shoe about 9 cards from the end. At the casino they seem to end it further in. Does this make a big difference? Thank you!

If you're not counting cards, the number of cards dealt from the shoe i.e., Penetration, makes no difference. You might as well just play a CSM (Continuous Shuffle Machine)

[21zen]

Okay - that is reassuring. Yes, playing with the same rules. I have played quite a bit at home - 10 shoes a day for 3 months or something. Not as much at the casino, as when I start losing 90% of the hands I freak out. I'm not making play mistakes, but I do tend to get overly conservative with my betting strategy. Thanks!

[21zen]

Okay - good to know. Thank you!

[DSchles]

I'm not making play mistakes, but I do tend to get overly conservative with my betting strategy. Thanks!

You can't possibly be too conservative with your betting strategy. You're not counting. The less you bet the better! You have no edge, so what would be your your "strategy"?

Don

[LVBear584]

If you don't learn an advantage play technique (usually card counting), what is the point of playing? The casinos are successful enough without your contributions. I'm not being disrespectful, but I cannot imagine going to a casino to essentially give away your money. Why, why, why? What is the attraction?

[Zabut]

I would also advise to play for real money if you dont have any type of Edge. I know it could be seen as fun, but the dopamine rushes are no joke, you can get addicted on thoose. If you want healty dopamine , go running or excersice . I know that seem strange advise on Blackjack forum....

[Overkill]

21zen,

In the following, I am only commenting on players using basic strategy with flat betting and no card counting whatsoever.

Are the casinos using machines to shuffle the cards, or are the dealers using only their hands to shuffle the cards? And I assume at home, you are not using a machine, correct?

Ending a shoe 9 cards from the end is not similar to what the casinos do. I would try to control as much as you can, so consider ending your home shoes where the casino does. I believe that at home you are waiting too long to shuffle. As a result, before each shuffle, your cards at home vs. the cards at the casino have a higher percentage of cards that have been played (what I call "charged") from the just-completed shoe. And, I believe that there is something non-random and player-favoring in the subsequent shoe to cards that were just charged (that is, played with proper basic strategy and that were picked up properly each round by the dealer).

Finally, I believe most folks will disagree with the above.

[DSchles]

Finally, I believe most folks will disagree with the above.

You got that part right, at least!

Don

[Bricklayer]

Absolutely none of what you're saying or doing makes any difference whatsoever except if you are playing more accurately at home, because you're forced to play faster in the casino and you make mistakes. Of course, we also assume that the rules are identical and that you're not playing under less favorable rules at the casino.

It's impossible to draw any conclusions from your personal results, which comprise a much too small sample to have any statistical meaning.

Don

Hey Don,

My question for you is…Isn’t it true if you have a home advantage of lets say 10% rather than the typical card counter’s edge of 1-2%….The “edge” should show up at/around, if not before the 1000 sample mark? Using 95% confidence intervals?

And if the 10% edge does not show up, the game would be legitimately rigged?

BL

[DSchles]

Hey Don,

My question for you is…Isn’t it true if you have a home advantage of lets say 10% rather than the typical card counter’s edge of 1-2%….The “edge” should show up at/around, if not before the 1000 sample mark? Using 95% confidence intervals?

And if the 10% edge does not show up, the game would be legitimately rigged?

BL

Well, if you're not winning after that amount of hands, with that edge, yes, you would have experienced approximately a 2-SD loss. But, since that has about a 2.28% probability, or about one chance in 44, I'm not sure you can be certain that the game was not honest. Have you ever experienced a 1 in 44 event in your lifetime?

Don

[Bricklayer]

Hey Don,

First off, thanks for always keeping things intelligent. And yes. 1:44 happens all the time. Haha it’s always possible. Thanks for your valuable input!

I’m willing to accept these odds. However, when things look rigged. Imo, it’s possible as well. Time will tell I guess.

BL