Last edited by Gramazeka; 07-18-2022 at 09:00 PM.
"Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)
Good. Let's go in order. Do you think Zenfighter took the Kelly factor into account in the simulation above?
The second question is how much +EV does one unit of TC give? RPC and EBJ. For example Hi Lo 1 TC give +0.5 EV.
p.s. 0.56 ))
Last edited by Gramazeka; 07-18-2022 at 08:54 PM.
"Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)
HiLo does NOT give .5% EV per TC. That is a back of the envelop estimate that the vast majority take as golden. Worse, people think you can add this estimate to basic strategy EV -- when basic strategy EV is not the same as that achieved with a counting strategy. See:
https://www.blackjackincolor.com/truecount2.htm
And that's for one set of indices. Clearly indices will change this, as well as penetration and other factors. Rules of thumb are estimates and often quite inaccurate.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
The Hi-Lo incremental edge per true count is no single, fixed number. That's because when you employ index departures, they kick in at different levels and obviously affect your advantage at that true count. As you look at your chart, you will see edges anywhere from, say, 0.54 to 0.60.
Don
0.5 % is a rule of thumb for Hi-Lo. It's not uniform. Let's take 6D,S17 with 22 indices as an example:
Hi-Lo
Code:10 0.000476488880 0.061209382263 9 0.000962523080 0.054479161165 8 0.001894033079 0.047515923006 7 0.003549913439 0.040629630113 6 0.006461209698 0.033793818826 5 0.011887739096 0.027073550933 4 0.021078035653 0.020736322732 3 0.036924567448 0.014957618139 2 0.065058029179 0.009545233196 1 0.118179208902 0.004229703977 0 0.267033329275 -0.001757881127 -1 0.188816929980 -0.006267781336 -2 0.123654982060 -0.010779987732 -3 0.067056553499 -0.015782591178 -4 0.038778760688 -0.020796967604 -5 0.021111953793 -0.026068963357 -6 0.012343745076 -0.031574742307 -7 0.006673581358 -0.037552766121 -8 0.003759524559 -0.043790938820 -9 0.001920320239 -0.050448226281 -10 0.001009002920 -0.057649010570
RPC
Calculate the difference between one TC and the next, multiply it by 100 and see what result you get.Code:10 0.006372829899 0.027301855334 9 0.008569372839 0.024063123854 8 0.011653612678 0.020926467757 7 0.015385171578 0.017679132702 6 0.020620626037 0.014609527830 5 0.027652105676 0.011741223029 4 0.037335565274 0.008935352324 3 0.049935327772 0.006160542519 2 0.067904886609 0.003336525709 1 0.094138976165 0.000473857076 0 0.162769829314 -0.002723333936 -1 0.109741408322 -0.005086927518 -2 0.098787306224 -0.007418290243 -3 0.070139308069 -0.009979178426 -4 0.052547268312 -0.012487106009 -5 0.037899048414 -0.015071285529 -6 0.028790138055 -0.017582050108 -7 0.021189757057 -0.020216572978 -8 0.016134736997 -0.022816386161 -9 0.011748251658 -0.025605774264 -10 0.008891312039 -0.028480907976
Sincerely,
Cac
Last edited by Cacarulo; 07-19-2022 at 10:10 AM.
This is an old study using pure Combinatorial Analysis to compute advantage at true count. https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...orial-Analysis
The advantage per true count is all over the place
Chance favors the prepared mind
There are a couple of things in relation to this study that I would like to mention.
At no time is there any reference to the system used, so I assume we are talking about Hi-Lo.
There is only one floored TC that does not exist in SD and it is the one corresponding to "minus one". If others are missing, I think it should be reviewed.
What is being tested is that the differences between one TC and the next are around 0.5%, sometimes more and sometimes less, which is the same as what is seen in the simulation that I published in post #75.
But this is Hi-Lo, if we look at RPC we will see that the percentages are different.
Sincerely,
Cac
Sorry i have a bad habit of not indicating the count used when i think of Hi-Lo
As far as the floored TC count, please note that this study was done at the 1/4 deck removed from the deck. So the TV divisor would be 0.75. And the missing TC counts are a result of flooring. For example a TC of -5 will never be possible.
Chance favors the prepared mind
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