Forgot to sort. Besides, I only care about positive numbers.
Don't know if this was answered directly anywhere else in the subsequent posts, but here is the explanation. The first part of what you wrote is correct, namely: "... the high card gives higher probability to bust the dealer more often when dealer has 2-6, which is also why players always stand against low cards at high count." But you failed to continue: However, since the count is high, the dealer frequency of 2-6 upcards is much lower than usual and the higher upcards, like T and Ace, are much more likely. This latter phenomenon more than offsets the former, such that, overall, with higher counts, dealers are less likely, by about 2-3%, to bust.
Clear?
Don
I see the point. Sometimes at high count I get many 12-16 against 7 up and these are even more horrible against high count (no surrender offered), I don't even want to look at the table after hitting at over +3, waiting to hear "Too many". Some sessions can be very frustrating if BJ does not come over to me and I realize getting 20 against a picture is less and less worthy at high count that I have to keep pushing and pushing and the count falls by 4 without doing any good.
I have been thinking about this graph for some time. Why does the number of players affect the dealer's bust rate?
Also, Dog Hand recently posted some simulation results on bust rates vs TC, for both the dealer and the player; however, it seems there are no good counting systems to identify the dealer's bust hand. Right?
The more players, the more likely the dealer must complete his hand as at a full table, one of the players is likely to end up not busting or getting a BJ.
Unless you are playing a bust side bet, there is no need for a counting system to look at this one stat in isolation. There are a large number of voodoo myths based on dealer bust rates, which is actually one of the least interesting stats.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
Don't know, don't care. Dealer bust rate is a useless stat unless you are playing a game with a side bet that involves dealer busts.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
aceside,
In those sims from 2003, I had three "never-bust" players, so the only time the dealer did not complete her hand was when all three players had simultaneous BJ's and the dealer did not have a pat hand.
Nowadays, Norm has bowed to public sentiment and included a "Dealer Must Complete Hand" in CVData... thanks, Norm!
Dog Hand
Of course dealer bust rate is meaningful. Not only as it relates to standing on stiffs, but also to success rate of soft doubles. The higher the stiff (between 2 & 6), the higher the success rate of soft doubles. An extension to that would be success rate Ax v 2,3,4,5,6. The higher x is for player, the higher the success rate for the soft double. So it seems - of course, what do I know.
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