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Thread: Chance of dealer busting of each upcard at various index count

  1. #14
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Forgot to sort. Besides, I only care about positive numbers.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  2. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by PromVRT View Post
    Bust rate lower at higher count? This sounds conflicting. I think bust rate at higher count is supposed to be higher because the high card gives higher probability to bust the dealer more often when dealer has 2-6, which is also why players always stand against low cards at high count. For the ace and ten, she is not supposed to bust regardless.
    Don't know if this was answered directly anywhere else in the subsequent posts, but here is the explanation. The first part of what you wrote is correct, namely: "... the high card gives higher probability to bust the dealer more often when dealer has 2-6, which is also why players always stand against low cards at high count." But you failed to continue: However, since the count is high, the dealer frequency of 2-6 upcards is much lower than usual and the higher upcards, like T and Ace, are much more likely. This latter phenomenon more than offsets the former, such that, overall, with higher counts, dealers are less likely, by about 2-3%, to bust.

    Clear?

    Don

  3. #16


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Don't know if this was answered directly anywhere else in the subsequent posts, but here is the explanation. The first part of what you wrote is correct, namely: "... the high card gives higher probability to bust the dealer more often when dealer has 2-6, which is also why players always stand against low cards at high count." But you failed to continue: However, since the count is high, the dealer frequency of 2-6 upcards is much lower than usual and the higher upcards, like T and Ace, are much more likely. This latter phenomenon more than offsets the former, such that, overall, with higher counts, dealers are less likely, by about 2-3%, to bust.

    Clear?

    Don
    Excellent. Did not realize it, thought they busted just as often....

  4. #17


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Don't know if this was answered directly anywhere else in the subsequent posts, but here is the explanation. The first part of what you wrote is correct, namely: "... the high card gives higher probability to bust the dealer more often when dealer has 2-6, which is also why players always stand against low cards at high count." But you failed to continue: However, since the count is high, the dealer frequency of 2-6 upcards is much lower than usual and the higher upcards, like T and Ace, are much more likely. This latter phenomenon more than offsets the former, such that, overall, with higher counts, dealers are less likely, by about 2-3%, to bust.

    Clear?

    Don
    I see the point. Sometimes at high count I get many 12-16 against 7 up and these are even more horrible against high count (no surrender offered), I don't even want to look at the table after hitting at over +3, waiting to hear "Too many". Some sessions can be very frustrating if BJ does not come over to me and I realize getting 20 against a picture is less and less worthy at high count that I have to keep pushing and pushing and the count falls by 4 without doing any good.

  5. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    This is 1, 3, and 6 players. I ran it also with dealer always completes, and it was imperceptibly different from 6 players. This is six decks, S17.

    Attachment 4113
    I have been thinking about this graph for some time. Why does the number of players affect the dealer's bust rate?

    Also, Dog Hand recently posted some simulation results on bust rates vs TC, for both the dealer and the player; however, it seems there are no good counting systems to identify the dealer's bust hand. Right?

  6. #19
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    The more players, the more likely the dealer must complete his hand as at a full table, one of the players is likely to end up not busting or getting a BJ.

    Unless you are playing a bust side bet, there is no need for a counting system to look at this one stat in isolation. There are a large number of voodoo myths based on dealer bust rates, which is actually one of the least interesting stats.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  7. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by PromVRT View Post
    https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...ncy-vs-HiLo-TC

    This one works. Many thanks to Dog hand

    But I'll try the sim anyway as I play S17 games, the chance of busting is less, especially 6 upcard where some busts are replaced by dealer soft 17.
    Norm explained this very well: The more players, the more likely the dealer must complete his hand, no matter what; however, this brought up a can of worms. In the above simulated dealer’s bust rate from Dog Hand, does the dealer complete all her hands?

  8. #21
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Don't know, don't care. Dealer bust rate is a useless stat unless you are playing a game with a side bet that involves dealer busts.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  9. #22


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    Norm explained this very well: The more players, the more likely the dealer must complete his hand, no matter what; however, this brought up a can of worms. In the above simulated dealer’s bust rate from Dog Hand, does the dealer complete all her hands?
    aceside,

    In those sims from 2003, I had three "never-bust" players, so the only time the dealer did not complete her hand was when all three players had simultaneous BJ's and the dealer did not have a pat hand.

    Nowadays, Norm has bowed to public sentiment and included a "Dealer Must Complete Hand" in CVData... thanks, Norm!

    Dog Hand

  10. #23


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    Norm can you explain why you think dealer bust rate is meaningless?
    I don't understand.
    When standing on our stiffs, bust rate becomes everything!
    I would certainly like to see that feature on CV at least when standing on our stiffs.

  11. #24


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    Quote Originally Posted by Secretariat View Post
    Norm can you explain why you think dealer bust rate is meaningless?
    I don't understand.
    When standing on our stiffs, bust rate becomes everything!
    I would certainly like to see that feature on CV at least when standing on our stiffs.
    Of course dealer bust rate is meaningful. Not only as it relates to standing on stiffs, but also to success rate of soft doubles. The higher the stiff (between 2 & 6), the higher the success rate of soft doubles. An extension to that would be success rate Ax v 2,3,4,5,6. The higher x is for player, the higher the success rate for the soft double. So it seems - of course, what do I know.

  12. #25


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Don't know if this was answered directly anywhere else in the subsequent posts, but here is the explanation. The first part of what you wrote is correct, namely: "... the high card gives higher probability to bust the dealer more often when dealer has 2-6, which is also why players always stand against low cards at high count." But you failed to continue: However, since the count is high, the dealer frequency of 2-6 upcards is much lower than usual and the higher upcards, like T and Ace, are much more likely. This latter phenomenon more than offsets the former, such that, overall, with higher counts, dealers are less likely, by about 2-3%, to bust.

    Clear?

    Don
    Granted, bust rate is lower as a whole which you’ve clarified. However, the relevancy is to the play at hand. Dealer rates to bust more often when holding, in descending order - 6,5,4,3,2.

  13. #26


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Of course dealer bust rate is meaningful.
    It is, but not in isolation. It's not something most people would have the time or expertise to evaluate on the fly. That's why there are tables and indices to tell you what to do.

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