TY for the answer, gonna buy CVData and play a bit with it.
And regarding Ax, I meant an ace with a random other card (at least thats the way it is/was described in poker back in the day).
I thought about this Wizard table again and found a problem here. If the dealer's hand is accidently exposed, the player should have a lot of hands to be able to surrender at least, but this surrender decision is not considered by the Wizard.
Also, it seems it is useless to find the exact EV numbers for a particular hand. All we care about is if this hand has a positive EV. Attached I list the positive EV hands when the dealer has small card values. This table will be useful when the dealer offers pulling out your hand totally in some situations.
When the dealer has large hand values, I hope Norm can post these numbers. However, it seems it should be very easy to estimate when to surrender. For a dealer A+x hand, you can mostly treat it as a 1+x hard hand. Attachment 4614Capture2.JPG
Last edited by aceside; 09-08-2021 at 05:20 PM.
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The reason I wanted to know the EV was actually to know if surrenderEV (-50%) was better than the best EV decision (could still be negative EV therefore) from the chart. So you were ahead of me there.
TBH my neural blood flow is not existent, because I cant make sense of your chart. The only thing I can think of is that you mean pulling out totally is that you receive your complete bet (and these are the positive EV situations)? Is this even a rule somewhere?
I can calculate these numbers but it will probably take me three days to do it. Another thing bothers me is that every time I publish some number here, nobody seems interested in verifying my numbers.
If the dealer offers you pulling out your hand bet totally, that often means she made a mistake somewhere and thus would give the player a one-hand promotion. Not a rule.
I can’t actually decipher your question as you’re responding to an aceside undecipherable response. However,
1. Yes, your best EV decision may well result in a long term loss for that hand composition
2. The mathematics of surrender are simple enough. If you win =< than 1 in 4 hands, then surrender is warranted
Example for breakeven on hands where surrender is warranted
100 $5 bets, total of $500 at risk.
Win 25 hands, lose 75 hands, or win $125 lose $375 for overall loss of $250
Surrender 100 hands, forfeit half your bet or lose $250.
I understand what you say and I think your example is correct. But the question is: when do you win less than 1 in 4 hands when the dealer has his hole card exposed?
So a 16 is surrender against an A in general, but is a 16 also surrender against A5/do you win less or more than 1 in 4 hands with 16 against a5?
Your example is the same as EV, just looked from a different/angle perspective no?
I suppose I should have reviewed the entire thread before responding - My answer to you is that I don’t know. There are hole card players who have this info, wheather they’re here or willing to share is another matter.
That being said, they’re a number of other situations where the answer would be obvious. I should point out the bulk of my play is no hole card, and where I do play hole card, I don’t attempt to see the hole card.
My CA will compute the expectation value and standard deviation knowing the dealer hole card, you just need to have two cards in dealer's hand instead of one. So in the example below we have the EV for dealer Ace with a hole card of 2 vs a player's soft eighteen. You can find my CA below
https://code.google.com/archive/p/bl...yzer/downloads
HoleCard.JPG
Chance favors the prepared mind
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