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Thread: Calculate EV

  1. #14


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    The reason I wanted to know the EV was actually to know if surrenderEV (-50%) was better than the best EV decision (could still be negative EV therefore) from the chart. So you were ahead of me there.
    TBH my neural blood flow is not existent, because I cant make sense of your chart. The only thing I can think of is that you mean pulling out totally is that you receive your complete bet (and these are the positive EV situations)? Is this even a rule somewhere?

  2. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrBrightside View Post
    The reason I wanted to know the EV was actually to know if surrenderEV (-50%) was better than the best EV decision (could still be negative EV therefore) from the chart. So you were ahead of me there.
    TBH my neural blood flow is not existent, because I cant make sense of your chart. The only thing I can think of is that you mean pulling out totally is that you receive your complete bet (and these are the positive EV situations)? Is this even a rule somewhere?
    I can calculate these numbers but it will probably take me three days to do it. Another thing bothers me is that every time I publish some number here, nobody seems interested in verifying my numbers.

    If the dealer offers you pulling out your hand bet totally, that often means she made a mistake somewhere and thus would give the player a one-hand promotion. Not a rule.

  3. #16


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    Quote Originally Posted by MrBrightside View Post
    The reason I wanted to know the EV was actually to know if surrenderEV (-50%) was better than the best EV decision (could still be negative EV therefore) from the chart. So you were ahead of me there.
    TBH my neural blood flow is not existent, because I cant make sense of your chart. The only thing I can think of is that you mean pulling out totally is that you receive your complete bet (and these are the positive EV situations)? Is this even a rule somewhere?
    I can’t actually decipher your question as you’re responding to an aceside undecipherable response. However,
    1. Yes, your best EV decision may well result in a long term loss for that hand composition
    2. The mathematics of surrender are simple enough. If you win =< than 1 in 4 hands, then surrender is warranted

    Example for breakeven on hands where surrender is warranted
    100 $5 bets, total of $500 at risk.
    Win 25 hands, lose 75 hands, or win $125 lose $375 for overall loss of $250
    Surrender 100 hands, forfeit half your bet or lose $250.

  4. #17


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    I can calculate these numbers but it will probably take me three days to do it. Another thing bothers me is that every time I publish some number here, nobody seems interested in verifying my numbers.

    If the dealer offers you pulling out your hand bet totally, that often means she made a mistake somewhere and thus would give the player a one-hand promotion. Not a rule.
    Then I can follow that the white boxes are the actual positve EV situations
    Thats kind of you, but first Ill try to figure out CVData before bothering you.
    Last edited by MrBrightside; 09-09-2021 at 05:39 PM.

  5. #18


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    I can’t actually decipher your question as you’re responding to an aceside undecipherable response. However,
    1. Yes, your best EV decision may well result in a long term loss for that hand composition
    2. The mathematics of surrender are simple enough. If you win =< than 1 in 4 hands, then surrender is warranted

    Example for breakeven on hands where surrender is warranted
    100 $5 bets, total of $500 at risk.
    Win 25 hands, lose 75 hands, or win $125 lose $375 for overall loss of $250
    Surrender 100 hands, forfeit half your bet or lose $250.
    I understand what you say and I think your example is correct. But the question is: when do you win less than 1 in 4 hands when the dealer has his hole card exposed?
    So a 16 is surrender against an A in general, but is a 16 also surrender against A5/do you win less or more than 1 in 4 hands with 16 against a5?
    Your example is the same as EV, just looked from a different/angle perspective no?

  6. #19


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    Quote Originally Posted by MrBrightside View Post
    I understand what you say and I think your example is correct. But the question is: when do you win less than 1 in 4 hands when the dealer has his hole card exposed?
    So a 16 is surrender against an A in general, but is a 16 also surrender against A5/do you win less or more than 1 in 4 hands with 16 against a5?
    Your example is the same as EV, just looked from a different/angle perspective no?

    I suppose I should have reviewed the entire thread before responding - My answer to you is that I don’t know. There are hole card players who have this info, wheather they’re here or willing to share is another matter.

    That being said, they’re a number of other situations where the answer would be obvious. I should point out the bulk of my play is no hole card, and where I do play hole card, I don’t attempt to see the hole card.

  7. #20


    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    My CA will compute the expectation value and standard deviation knowing the dealer hole card, you just need to have two cards in dealer's hand instead of one. So in the example below we have the EV for dealer Ace with a hole card of 2 vs a player's soft eighteen. You can find my CA below

    https://code.google.com/archive/p/bl...yzer/downloads

    HoleCard.JPG
    Chance favors the prepared mind

  8. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by iCountNTrack View Post
    My CA will compute the expectation value and standard deviation knowing the dealer hole card, you just need to have two cards in dealer's hand instead of one.
    This is exactly what MrBrightSide and me are looking for. I cast out a minnow but hooked back a big shark. We definitely have advanced APs here in this forum. Thank you for your hard work.

  9. #22


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    This is exactly what MrBrightSide and me are looking for.
    Would you like to try that again in English this time!

    Don

  10. #23


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Would you like to try that again in English this time!
    Don - You're not giving aceside the credit he deserves. He's a Renaissance man. He's equally inept in several fields besides math.
    Last edited by 21forme; 09-11-2021 at 06:46 AM.

  11. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Would you like to try that again in English this time!

    Don
    I am grateful to you for correcting my English problem. You are a super AP after all, so when you comment I know there is a problem somewhere. Let me also take the opportunity to correct the math problems in the chart I posted here earlier.

    The calculator from ICountNTrack has verified some of my mistakes in this chart. The biggest mistakes are these: player 10 vs dealer 10, EV<0; 10 vs 11, EV<0. There are also a few other mistakes, so please use the chart with your own discretion.

    There are also a few strategy discrepancies between Wizard’s chart and ICountNTrack calculator. Most notable one is 11 vs 10. Wizard says to hit but ICountNTrack says to double. I guess this is because Wizard used infinite deck.
    Last edited by aceside; 09-12-2021 at 06:33 AM.

  12. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by iCountNTrack View Post
    My CA will compute the expectation value and standard deviation knowing the dealer hole card, you just need to have two cards in dealer's hand instead of one.
    Hi ICountNTrack, I found your calculator very powerful but also extremely slow. It took me more than 15 minutes to calculate the player hand 2, 2 vs T, 2 when I chose single deck and 1-split. For my laptop, it is impossible to calculate this hand when I chose 6 deck 1-split. Do you have any simpler calculator for this purpose?

  13. #26


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    My CA computes split EV fully optimally and will take a long time to compute especially for low ranked cards.

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