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Originally Posted by
aceside
Hi Gronbog, Can you look into these probability numbers calculated from the MGP CA program? Each probability is exceptionally large and there is also a huge jump from the hand of 16 vs 6 to 16 vs 7. I don't understand at all.
From MGP CA, Hard TD Strategy, Probability:
16 vs 2: 0.092
16 vs 3: 0.091
16 vs 4: 0.083
16 vs 5: 0.079
16 vs 6: 0.073
16 vs 7: 0.120
16 vs 8: 0.121
16 vs 9: 0.123
16 vs 10: 0.127
16 vs A: 0.128
aceside,
The "jump" that occurs when the dealer's upcard moves from 6 to 7 is easy: say you're dealt a 6-8. If the dealer is showing a 6 (or less), B.S. says to stand, but if the dealer is showing a 7 (or more), B.S. says to hit. Thus, this hand will never become a 16 vs. 6, because you stood, but it may become a 16 vs. 7, if your hit card is a deuce.
To a lesser extent you can see this same phenomenon in the "drop" that occurs when the dealer's upcard moves from a 3 to a 4: this is because is you have 12 vs. a 2 or 3, you'll hit (and perhaps draw a 4 to make 16), but vs. a 4, 5, or 6, you'll stand.
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
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