Well that makes absolutely no sense. The jackpot is 1 million and if two people win they pay out $20K and $20.4K?
If only 1 winner(advantage player who only bet $0.0408 per pair of 4digit number), payout = $20400
if 2 winners, 1st winner will get = $20000 and 2nd winner will get = $980000
Meaning additional winner (in same draw) will only have minimum impact to advantage player who bet "small" !
Last edited by James989; 07-28-2018 at 10:08 AM.
Some of our most senior members are advising you there's a safer way to invest your bankroll.
They're pointing out this is how MIT and other advantage play teams have beaten lotteries in the past -- buying thousands of tickets for the same draw. This tactic will not work for this game. A 16% EV is unusual however...
...you'd have to buy more tickets than the jackpot is worth.
You'd be more likely to split a jackpot with repetitive numbers (1111) or sequential (1234), since other people will play these. Split jackpots are more likely to happen on the biggest jackpots since more people will play those.
if one winner(1 cheap ticket), then the cheap ticket will win = 0.0408*1000000/2= $20400.
if two winners(1 cheap ticket, one $2 tickets), then the cheap ticket will win = 0.0408*1000000/(0.0408+2)= $20000(98% OF $20400).
if three winners(1 cheap ticket, two other $2 tickets), then the cheap ticket will win = 0.0408*1000000/(0.0408+2+2)= $10101(49% OF $20400).
If four winners....... cheap ticket will win = 0.0408*1000000/(0.0408+2+2+2)=$6757(33% OF $20400)
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If there are two winners the prize is only reduce by 2%( from $20400 to $20000). If there are 3 or more winners, the prize amount won will reduce drastically, but I THINK the probability for 3 or more jackpot winners in a draw is extremely low.
Last edited by James989; 07-28-2018 at 04:39 PM.
Thank you! That's awesome it took so long for the government to figure it out.
I wonder how pissed the rest of the team was that Voltaire unintentionally ended up getting the play found out. Reminds me of another story I read recently, can't remember where though, or the details...
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