Cover play

[ZeeBabar]

If you are a fairly inexperienced player, you are getting a lot of bad advice here that is putting the kart way ahead of the horse.

Agree 100%. There is an excellent thread currently active on blackjackinfo.com about selecting a count for newbies. It seems that every thread here by a couple of posters is aimed at putting down HiLo players. When evidence is presented everywhere that in today's game the gain by using a higher count is really not much, you are drowned by graphs that show a significant difference in extreme counts that occur an insignificant amount of time or assumptions that HiLo will get you caught and backed off. This despite the fact that a majority of successful counters use HiLo or other one level counts. Some of us are now succeeding playing HiLo, many while even playing with a players card.

I started playing with a $15k BR, still around 200 hours a year and despite learning through many many initial mistakes (not doubling on A7 or splitting 9's against a 9 and many correct risk averse plays), after roughly 600 hours, my BR crossed $50k three days ago. This despite earning zero in year 2. $19k, Zero, $31k over the past 3 years starting August 2014.

[hypercube]

Agree 100%. There is an excellent thread currently active on blackjackinfo.com about selecting a count for newbies. It seems that every thread here by a couple of posters is aimed at putting down HiLo players. When evidence is presented everywhere that in today's game the gain by using a higher count is really not much, you are drowned by graphs that show a significant difference in extreme counts that occur an insignificant amount of time or assumptions that HiLo will get you caught and backed off. This despite the fact that a majority of successful counters use HiLo or other one level counts. Some of us are now succeeding playing HiLo, many while even playing with a players card.

I started playing with a $15k BR, still around 200 hours a year and despite learning through many many initial mistakes (not doubling on A7 or splitting 9's against a 9 and many correct risk averse plays), after roughly 600 hours, my BR crossed $50k three days ago. This despite earning zero in year 2. $19k, Zero, $31k over the past 3 years starting August 2014.

Hilo is the worst for beginners because, becuase beginners have small bankrolls and hilo has huge variance compared to a strong count system like hi opt2!

[Stealth]

Hilo is the worst for beginners because, becuase beginners have small bankrolls and hilo has huge variance compared to a strong count system like hi opt2!

Another categorical statement without any validation. The answer continues to be "it depends". How much variance are the errors caused by an inexperienced player? There is no one size fits all guys. And it is not HI OptII ASC or nothing. Open your mind and begin to evaluate what tools you need to do what job and with what level of people.

[BoSox]

Hilo is the worst for beginners because, becuase beginners have small bankrolls and hilo has huge variance compared to a strong count system like hi opt2!

You also wrote the below quote this week:

" I also think there is something to being able to reduce short term session variance with negligible impact on long term ev that makes things like splitting 88, 99 v 10 and A questionable at their simed index."

Do you also side count two's ? If not splitting 99 vs a 10 up is also going to cause a little bit of extra variance. Twenty four post on the board and suddenly we have another expert.

[hypercube]

You also wrote the below quote this week:

" I also think there is something to being able to reduce short term session variance with negligible impact on long term ev that makes things like splitting 88, 99 v 10 and A questionable at their simed index."

Do you also side count two's ? If not splitting 99 vs a 10 up is also going to cause a little bit of extra variance. Twenty four post on the board and suddenly we have another expert.

why would i side count 2s? and yes splitting 88s v 9,10,A is a stupid play.

[ZeeBabar]

why would i side count 2s? and yes splitting 88s v 9,10,A is a stupid play.

Wow, you won't split 8's and it's a stupid play? Wonder why all these pros do it and why the great authors on this site say, both in their books and on the forum that it's a smart play. In my experience, when Surrender is not offered, there have been far too many times when I have either one one or both by splitting and very few by standing or hitting two 8's.

[hypercube]

Wow, you won't split 8's and it's a stupid play? Wonder why all these pros do it and why the great authors on this site say, both in their books and on the forum that it's a smart play. In my experience, when Surrender is not offered, there have been far too many times when I have either one one or both by splitting and very few by standing or hitting two 8's.

nope i dont split 8s v 9,10,A, because my sim results optimizing score and RA betting for the system i play tell me it reduces $$/hr if it do it in high counts. I get that its technically borderline better in low counts, not doing it gives up nothing and reduces session variance and you can simply take that $$ where you were going to split the 88s v 9,10,a and wait and place an extra bet in a better double down or split situation v a weaker dealer card, so not splitting the 8s become huge +ev that way

[NB10]

nope i dont split 8s v 9,10,A, because my sim results optimizing score and RA betting for the system i play tell me it reduces $$/hr if it do it in high counts. I get that its technically borderline better in low counts, not doing it gives up nothing and reduces session variance and you can simply take that $$ where you were going to split the 88s v 9,10,a and wait and place an extra bet in a better double down or split situation v a weaker dealer card, so not splitting the 8s become huge +ev that way

What sim do you use? I thought BS said to split 88 against these dealer cards?

[BoSox]

nope i dont split 8s v 9,10,A, because my sim results optimizing score and RA betting for the system i play tell me it reduces $$/hr if it do it in high counts. I get that its technically borderline better in low counts, not doing it gives up nothing and reduces session variance and you can simply take that $$ where you were going to split the 88s v 9,10,a and wait and place an extra bet in a better double down or split situation v a weaker dealer card, so not splitting the 8s become huge +ev that way

Hypercube, there is so much wrong with the above quote that if this is how you think I will kindly ignore you. You can not play that way "wait and place an extra bet in a better double down or split situation v a weaker dealer card" by picking and choosing your own basic strategy, and rightfully say "so not splitting the 8s become huge +ev that way" that is simply not true. Using risk averse indexes is a good thing, and I recommend players use them, but you are taking this to a whole new level.


" Originally Posted by hypercubeOriginally Posted by NB10
Wanted to get the thoughts of more experienced players, what are the most effective cover plays for lessening heat whilst minimising the amount of EV sacrificed?"

Hypercube responded with:

"if I have max bet out and i want to split 10s v 4,5,6 i take out my double sided tail coin out and say heads i stand tails I split!! if its a low count i use my double sided head coin!"

Go ahead and use your two sided coin flip, and go get that extra EV for that play. What about beyond that one play? Oh yes, in your world no one saw a thing, great idea, that is completely ridiculous.

[BoSox]

I get that its technically borderline better in low counts, not doing it gives up nothing and reduces session variance and you can simply take that $$ where you were going to split the 88s v 9,10,a and wait and place an extra bet in a better double down or split situation v a weaker dealer card, so not splitting the 8s become huge +ev that way

For the record you can double down, or split. but you can not place an extra bet knowing ahead of time that the hand will be a double down, or split situation.

[hypercube]

For the record you can double down, or split. but you can not place an extra bet knowing ahead of time that the hand will be a double down, or split situation.

no choosing a borderline offensive advantage split or double to put that money on the felt instead of a defensive split with the 88 i am saying is more +ev use of the capitol, and the sims are not going to show that directly

[hypercube]

I am with your wanting to be risk averse but this logic is bad. Borderline anything is weak and would not make sense to use the money on even if you found the chips in a cup holder. Finding a great situation you can use it for is another story. Like increasing your max bet a hair all the time. But then you have selected your bets carefully to work as a team so there is a reason for the selection made already. Splits are just such rare plays that whatever you do has a minimal impact. I like the idea of giving up a little EV to get a smoother ride but most of these I can't get behind without a closer look. I would only consider 8,8 because it also has cover value not splitting it and I would only do it against a T especially when surrender is an option. It is giving up EV but your count is a terrible indicator of what to do with 8,8vT. How do you know that making the moves you are talking about is +EV?


Oh, I see. You don't say that. You say using the money on a weaker split or double is better because it is an offensive split. But if it is an offensive split aren't you doing it anyway unless it is already a RA adjusted index? You should never double for less when playing for real money and you can't double or split for more. Sorry, I am just having trouble understanding what you are saying in a way that you can actually do it or that makes sense. Could you clarify with an example of using it to double or split an offensive split that you aren't already splitting or a double that you aren't already doubling?

you say border line anything is weak, i say splitting 88v9,10 is borderline and weak and comes with high short term variance and that their are many more borderline plays to choose from where you actually have the odds to win the hand and so your variance will be lower, unlike the splitting 88 where you have odds to lose the hand. So take that money and deploy it on a soft 20 double versus a 4,5,6 in a high count instead.

I get the sense people are not understanding, what i am suggesting is stop splitting 88 against a dealer 9,10 in a high count and it will lower session variance and the effect on longterm ev is minuscule which can be more than made up by deploying that capitol in a better way. What I suggest instead is finding a better advantage situation to take that max bet that would have gone out on the split 88 and deploy in a +ev situation instead, merely learning one more index you are not using today for example gains back more ev, pick one of these.

A2v4

A4v3

A5v3

A8v4

44v4

99v7

A3v3

A8v3

A9v5

A9v6

1010v5

1010v6

A8v2

A9v4

A10v4

A10v5

A10v6

1010v4

This is a game played with real players and you guys are smart I am sure you can find a way to deploy an extra max bet in advantage situation over the course of a session that is better than splitting 88v10 to theoretically lose less in the long run in a monster count when you know the dealer has a 10!

[BoSox]

why would i side count 2s?

Sorry, I was just being sarcastic.

and yes splitting 88s v 9,10,A is a stupid play.

I did not say that, as I often split 88 vs 9, 10, ace up. They are not stupid plays, they are referred to as defensive splits, which lose you less money than making the alternative move.
I will surrender 88 vs a ten up with a TC of +2 in a S17 shoe game. I have not yet seen the situation to surrender 88 vs a 9 up, which requires a TC of +7 to do so.