If you are a fairly inexperienced player, you are getting a lot of bad advice here that is putting the kart way ahead of the horse.
Agree 100%. There is an excellent thread currently active on blackjackinfo.com about selecting a count for newbies. It seems that every thread here by a couple of posters is aimed at putting down HiLo players. When evidence is presented everywhere that in today's game the gain by using a higher count is really not much, you are drowned by graphs that show a significant difference in extreme counts that occur an insignificant amount of time or assumptions that HiLo will get you caught and backed off. This despite the fact that a majority of successful counters use HiLo or other one level counts. Some of us are now succeeding playing HiLo, many while even playing with a players card.
I started playing with a $15k BR, still around 200 hours a year and despite learning through many many initial mistakes (not doubling on A7 or splitting 9's against a 9 and many correct risk averse plays), after roughly 600 hours, my BR crossed $50k three days ago. This despite earning zero in year 2. $19k, Zero, $31k over the past 3 years starting August 2014.
Another categorical statement without any validation. The answer continues to be "it depends". How much variance are the errors caused by an inexperienced player? There is no one size fits all guys. And it is not HI OptII ASC or nothing. Open your mind and begin to evaluate what tools you need to do what job and with what level of people.
Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!
You also wrote the below quote this week:
" I also think there is something to being able to reduce short term session variance with negligible impact on long term ev that makes things like splitting 88, 99 v 10 and A questionable at their simed index."
Do you also side count two's ? If not splitting 99 vs a 10 up is also going to cause a little bit of extra variance. Twenty four post on the board and suddenly we have another expert.
Wow, you won't split 8's and it's a stupid play? Wonder why all these pros do it and why the great authors on this site say, both in their books and on the forum that it's a smart play. In my experience, when Surrender is not offered, there have been far too many times when I have either one one or both by splitting and very few by standing or hitting two 8's.
nope i dont split 8s v 9,10,A, because my sim results optimizing score and RA betting for the system i play tell me it reduces $$/hr if it do it in high counts. I get that its technically borderline better in low counts, not doing it gives up nothing and reduces session variance and you can simply take that $$ where you were going to split the 88s v 9,10,a and wait and place an extra bet in a better double down or split situation v a weaker dealer card, so not splitting the 8s become huge +ev that way
Last edited by hypercube; 08-12-2017 at 08:37 AM.
Hypercube, there is so much wrong with the above quote that if this is how you think I will kindly ignore you. You can not play that way "wait and place an extra bet in a better double down or split situation v a weaker dealer card" by picking and choosing your own basic strategy, and rightfully say "so not splitting the 8s become huge +ev that way" that is simply not true. Using risk averse indexes is a good thing, and I recommend players use them, but you are taking this to a whole new level.
" Originally Posted by hypercubeOriginally Posted by NB10
Wanted to get the thoughts of more experienced players, what are the most effective cover plays for lessening heat whilst minimising the amount of EV sacrificed?"
Hypercube responded with:
"if I have max bet out and i want to split 10s v 4,5,6 i take out my double sided tail coin out and say heads i stand tails I split!! if its a low count i use my double sided head coin!"
Go ahead and use your two sided coin flip, and go get that extra EV for that play. What about beyond that one play? Oh yes, in your world no one saw a thing, great idea, that is completely ridiculous.
Last edited by BoSox; 08-13-2017 at 07:41 AM.
you say border line anything is weak, i say splitting 88v9,10 is borderline and weak and comes with high short term variance and that their are many more borderline plays to choose from where you actually have the odds to win the hand and so your variance will be lower, unlike the splitting 88 where you have odds to lose the hand. So take that money and deploy it on a soft 20 double versus a 4,5,6 in a high count instead.
I get the sense people are not understanding, what i am suggesting is stop splitting 88 against a dealer 9,10 in a high count and it will lower session variance and the effect on longterm ev is minuscule which can be more than made up by deploying that capitol in a better way. What I suggest instead is finding a better advantage situation to take that max bet that would have gone out on the split 88 and deploy in a +ev situation instead, merely learning one more index you are not using today for example gains back more ev, pick one of these.
A2v4 A4v3 A5v3 A8v4 44v4 99v7
A3v3 A8v3 A9v5 A9v6 1010v5 1010v6
A8v2 A9v4 A10v4 A10v5 A10v6 1010v4
This is a game played with real players and you guys are smart I am sure you can find a way to deploy an extra max bet in advantage situation over the course of a session that is better than splitting 88v10 to theoretically lose less in the long run in a monster count when you know the dealer has a 10!
Last edited by hypercube; 08-13-2017 at 07:46 AM.
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