Thank you, I'll give up REKO and return to basic strategy.
I wouldn't do that so rashly. Griffin said employing your index early can costs you more than the gain for the index play. Employing the index late costs some of the gain. This is for positive indices and true counted counts. It has to do with the frequency bell curve. Higher frequencies for the lower magnitude TC's. Sim your indices against BS or learn the indices for the game you are playing.Originally Posted by Philippe B
If you are not using an index, then you are essentially using an index of +999 or -999. If you are using an index that is reasonably close to the actual index, you are usually using a better index than using basic strategy.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
Yes. The graphs of the plays and their EV with respect to count sometimes intersect at a very shallow angle, meaning the EV lost is not much if the deviation is incorrectly applied when the lines are still close together. 12v4, for instance, doesn't change much close to TC 0 I believe. Others, like insurance, deviate much more rapidly and are much more important to apply correctly.
I've identified seven steps to win money playing Blackjack:
1. Master Basic Strategy and never deviate from it.
2. Test you Basic Strategy skills to make sure you don't make any mistakes.
3. Master a card counting system and optimal betting strategy associated with the count system. Does not require using index deviations.
4. Learn and master the Illustrious 18 and Fab 4 indices.
5. Learn and master the full indices for the count system you are using.
6. Hide your skills as a counter.
7. Use good judgement on Money Management.
Once you master 1-3 you have an advantage over the casino and could win money at Blackjack. To increase your edge over the casino master 4-7.
This generalization can be misleading. It depends on how fast gain accumulates or is lost on either side of the index, the relative TC frequencies close to the index, and some other factors. Using a positive index early is what costs you money. You make the mistake more frequently as the mistaken index moves toward the peak of the frequency bell curve from the actual index. The gain/loss per use will be fairly linear for the same TC difference on either side of the actual index. The frequencies of use will not be. Understanding that statement allows you to understand what Griffin meant. Not understanding it causes poor use of his statement. Using a positive index 1 TC too early wipes out all the gain from 1 TC above the index plus some of the gain beyond it. Make a 2 TC early error and you will likely wipe out all the gain from the index play and perhaps lose money using the incorrect index as a whole.
Cacarulo and I ran a ton of sims on this long ago and discovered that indicies that are reasonably close provide a gain over BS. There are a handful, like splitting tens, where a low index is bad.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
It is not about the rate of gain/loss as it is probably similar on both sides of an index. It is about the amount lost to the mistake compared to what the correct index gains. Think of the bell curve at TC increments. The area under each increment represents the relative gain for that TC on the tail side of the index for that TC integer. The area under the bell curve between the actual index and the mistaken index is the relative loss for the mistake. The difference between the areas under those two bell curve sections as looked at in increments of 1 integer TC is the actual gain from the poor index would represent (each TC increment away from the actual decimal index would have a larger gain/area). Gain at the index can vary from almost nothing (when broken into decimal segments almost half is negative or positive for the integer TC) to a decimal index equal to an integer index. In the latter the areas would be equivalent in value/area for the index TC and 1 TC in the wrong direction. For the former the areas would equate with the same gain/area at equal increments around the index, with the actual index TC being fairly neutral.
Probably hard to follow if you don't know what I am talking about to begin with. Basically the graph of gain times the frequency of use from the TC bell curve gives the gain/loss as you go out from the index. The area under the frequency bell curve for each TC increment is the frequency for that TC. The gain/loss from the index graph is multiplied by the area under the graph. Areas with the same gain as another loss can be cancelled to leave the difference as the cost of the mistake. Areas left after the cancellation are adjusted by the difference in gain when canceling an area that has a larger gain.
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