If the game is as he described it, I believe he is ahead at TC+1 by about .38%, certainly borderline but IMHO he is going to be short lived with his 1:30 or 1:50 depending on his "froggy"
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Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!
Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!
Should have elaborated further on Sharkys plus 2 comment. Very Valid point when playing shitty games.
For myself when eyeballing a shoe game. I use a benchmark house edge of .5%. Won't often get to much better than .45 at shoe, except at exceptional games. Really easy go to do a shit load worse, and this is where ramping at plus 1 tends to be a mistake. A rule exception may be tactical if not concerned about trading variance with the house - but again, the higher the house edge us, the poorer the move.
The other point Sharky was alluding to, worded differently. Shittier rules create a higher house edge which requires a higher true count in order to firstly, break even, secondly reducing the number of hands worthy of big bet opportunities, further requiring faster bet ramping in marginal p,plus opportunities - thus increasing variance. I got buried at such a game last night.
For a counter, the HE on a game is not that important. It's the player's advantage that is important. Pen and bet spread dwarf HE. Other factors being equal, would you believe that an 8-decker with crummy rules (HE of .65%) and pen of 7.5/8 is a better game than a 6-decker with great rules (.26% HE) and pen of 4.5/6? You might be surprised. Run the SCORE and let the SCORE decide if it's a good game....
Good comments. I suppose i should have elaborated lousy rules with shitty pen. 7.5/8 super deep pen makes up for many poor rule transgressions.
The HE is still important to the degree that the higher HE still needs to be overcome - which still translates into fewer big bet opportunities, now subsidized by that very important deep pen which assists in doing so.
The fewer unseen cards, the better.
Last edited by Freightman; 05-03-2016 at 12:59 PM. Reason: To add comment
Just got in to read all the comments.
The game doesn't allow for surrender of any kind BUT you can RESPLIT aces. and when I use the already loaded sim for hi/lo sweet16 and fab 4 it says I have a advantage at +1 but small and I learned that keeping it at min bet at that time is not a bad idea.
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