This post is for the technical analysts -
From the beginning of this year, I've been meticulously tracking my results, including number of rounds in the session, win/loss, EV, estimated average bet and standard deviation based on the game rules and spread employed (thanks to CVCX).
I have around 5,000 rounds in so far and I'm running way above EV, but substantially all of the overage appears to be attributable to one or two crazy sessions where everything went right; i.e., sessions that were greater than 1.5 standard deviations.
So it occurred to me that maybe I could make something more meaningful out of my 5,000-round results if I were to look at the results only for sessions that had a z-score of between -1.3 to +1.3. This covers about 80% of expected results. The thinking is that the distribution of these results should tend to accumulate closer to the true EV number. And if I was way over or way under EV based on those sessions, then that might be an indication that I was using an incorrect EV (either over or underestimated).
What do you think?
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