Blackjack is an extremely volatile game, so very extreme results are commonplace.
If you continue playing you WILL experience -2 SD results almost as often as +2 SD results.
A close friend, and one of the very best A.P.'s, has had +400 K years.
So far this year, his results are hovering around "break-even."
ZMF says BJ (card-counting) is extremely volatile. I agree....but also disagree.
It is volatile in the sense that your hourly swings (SD) compared to your EV. However, if you compare your SD to your max bets, it is not a volatile game. One game I simmed has an EV of $100 and SD of $1,500 -- with 2x$250 max bet. So basically SD is about 3 max-bets. Another [stronger game] has EV of $200 and SD of $1700 with a 2x$200 max - about 4 max bets for the SD.
Swings happen both ways, of course. I don't track my EV too accurately, given my style of play. I don't have a hard and fast plan I stick to 100% when I enter a casino. I have a general plan of how long I'll play, what games and conditions I'm looking for, what my spread is going to be, etc. But I don't always play the same way. Sometimes I'll have a max bet of maybe $100, other times $200, and if I can get away with it, $300. If there's a full table, I'll only play with deep penetration. If I'm playing heads up, I'll play with much poorer penetration. Even with the worst playing conditions that I'll play in, the hourly is still worth it for me. Sometimes I may be playing with $50/hour in EV, other times $250/hour in EV. I don't count the # of rounds I play, fast/slow dealer, whatever. I rather focus my attention on playing my game and keeping an eye on the pit critters -- like if they decide to take special attention to me, go to the phones, if they're congregating and (possibly) talking about me, etc.
That being said, my results over the last few months have been astonishingly above expectation. Although I can't say for sure, but, I'd say a little less than 2 SD's above EV. It's come to the point where it seems like I can do no wrong, having a winning session of only 2x or 3x my EV seems like a "bad session"...and having a win of 10x my EV is expected or normal.
What I've done in the past, is, if I haven't been doing well, then I take a break from BJ. It's no fun to lose, lose, lose! I don't need to play BJ as there are plenty of other AP opportunities out there. Plus, I don't want to burn myself out by playing too much and not wanting to play the game or by playing too much and getting BO'd. After a break from BJ, I saddle right back up, open up CVBJ, practice for a while making sure my counting game is still good and make sure I know my indices, and go back out there.
apkevy, you (and anyone who's at least semi-serious at CC BJ) should purchase CVBJ and CVCX. Run a sim of the game you play, tweak it around so the outcomes fit your needs (EV, SD, SCORE, N0, ROR). Load that style of play into CVBJ and practice in the same conditions you would be playing in a casino. Not only is it good for practice and getting better at the game, but you'll learn something too. It's one thing to see a program tell you, "EV is $100, SD is $1500"....it's something totally different to actually play and experience what the swings look and feel like. CVCX might show you those figures and you say, "Hell yeah that's awesome, I can stomach the variance, Imma go grind it out!" But if you actually experience the swings in the game in CVBJ, you might quickly realize a $1500 hourly SD [or whatever figure suits your game] is too much for you to stomach.
"Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]
A excellent post above by RS which summarizes everything really well.
I don't even notice much anymore, but often times within a single session I will swing huge between +/- 5 SD- it depends on spread, conditions etc. That is just how it's gonna be in this game and completely normal. Performing a sim on the game is critical to determining your betting strategy, ROR, EV and other parameters etc., but at the end of the day REAL TABLE TIME is just that- real table time.
My feeling is too many beginners spend too much time screwing around on the computer with sims and practicing and reading tons of theory, and don't just go out there and play- developing real life table experience- dealing with the emotions and mental aspects of the game, getting into your game, developing a game YOU'RE comfortable with. You'll find your own niche and develop strategies and game plans you're comfortable with, sims only tell you so much. You might see everything on a computer screen and be like yeah, ok check EV, check SD, looks like my bankroll is solid, I can count down a 6d shoe in 3 minutes. It's different on a real table- you don't have "sim conditions" and we're playing for real cash- figure it out for yourself what works for you, but go out and play!! Experience the SD for yourself, see what swings you're comfortable with and learn to deal with the psychological aspects accordingly.
When I first started out with 5k bank, my hands would be shaking and my palms sweating when I pushed out my max bet of 2x$100. I would be sooooo rattled losing like $500-1000 and elated winning the same. You eventually learn to control those emotions and just play. Now I can lose 30k in one session, thank the dealer with a huge smile, go eat a meal and sleep like a baby through the night. It comes with experience.
Kev, you ain't seen nothing yet buddy, I assure you. When you swing 10-20 sd down and kill like a huge part of your bank, lose 200 units in one hand, lose 1000 units, experience 300+ hours losing, THAT'LL be the true test of whether you have the balls to stomach the game, and the worst games with the worst conditions- terrible scores and huge variance. I know where you play, the game is bad, but it ain't THAT bad- a lot of $$ can be made for sure. Put your head down, just keep a cool head dealing with the swings and get some $$- you'll gain maturity and experience along the way and figure out what you're comfy with.
Last edited by Masterhoudini; 08-18-2015 at 07:17 AM.
Masterhoudini, I totally agree with you. Some here advise a newbie not to get real table time until they have read a ton of books, mastered a count with indices, purchased software and practiced, practiced and more practice, talk about counting down a deck in 22 seconds and such before entering a casino. I don't agree.
i met one good long time AP and he said that he just read a couple of books back in the '80's (Patterson and Wong), figured just the basics, that you bet more in positive counts and the rest was all learned from playing in casinos. He said he later heard about the I-18 and became more accurate but he had used his own experience and instincts for basic strategy deviations. He makes upper 5 figures from BJ to go along with his soc. security income and he has never ever used software.
his words "I don't want to train to be a mechanic to drive my car, I do ok".
Of course I am emotionally attached to money. I'm new at playing blackjack with an advantage, my BR was fully built from waiting tables at something close to minimum salary. My BR represents a full year salary.Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash
If you don't value money, then why are you playing ?
Edit: Also, my self-esteem IS affected by my performance at the table, but not by the RESULTS.
I sometimes come back from a winning session and feel ashamed of myself because I lost count a couple times or deviated from my original "attack plan"..
Last edited by apkevy; 08-27-2015 at 08:02 PM.
I think the key point is to try and keep levelheaded and not let it affect your game and your personal life when you're on a winning or losing streak. It is good that you are evaluating your sessions to constantly refine and improve your game. This is easier said than done- we are humans at the end of the day and not robots and often times a lot of $$ is involved.
Yesterday I lost 9 max bets in one shoe, and dealer capped off the shoe with 3 backdoor blackjacks in a row and then 21. It was totally disgusting and I was frustrated- actually frustrated and it showed. You just cool off, get your mind in a better place and battle another day.
You may have a comfortable bankroll but the goal is still to win $$ or else why would we be playing? You gotta have a little attachment to the cash, or else the business becomes meaningless and you may as well be a robot. Most important thing is to keep humble, grounded and don't get complacent. Be confident in your skills, set your goals high, but always look for ways to refine your game, network with people, and go forge out opportunities for yourself.
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