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Thread: Little help with bet sizing/spred I should be using.

  1. 06-18-2015, 05:14 AM #27
    Three
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    Am I the only one that thinks he should hit max bet before TC +6?
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  2. 06-18-2015, 05:20 AM #28
    DickFer
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    If i'm betting according to Kelly criterion I wouldn't have a max bet would I? If I'm doing TC-1*Kelly I would just go by that wouldn't I? If TC hits 15, I would go 15-1*3.75=$52.50
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  3. 06-18-2015, 05:45 AM #29
    DickFer
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    I plugged the game type into chapter x it program thing that runs a sim on your game type. I entered all my details that ive given out in this thread. 1000 br, etc, etc. And it gives a list of optimal bets at different TC. It's pretty dang close to what that formula TC-1*Kelly gives me.
    pic.jpg
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  4. 06-18-2015, 05:45 AM #30
    Three
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    Full kelly would have you bet 0 at all disadvantage counts so you wouldn't be betting at TC 0 or -1 and maybe +1. Kelly betting decides each bet by this formula of current advantage times variance times BR. Those who actually do full kelly betting can correct me if I am wrong. Don you love catching my mistakes. I am sketchy on this one since I never used full kelly. Let me know how I did.
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  5. 06-18-2015, 05:50 AM #31
    DickFer
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    I think you're correct on that no betting at 0 and -1. I don't think you necessarily have to stick to that but that is what it recommends in order to maximize your gain/min risk(which makes sense, you don't want to be betting when odds are not in your favor.) Right? wrong? I think if I use this strategy I would just have to be sitting out quite a bit or going to the bathroom when count gets bad, or back counting, etc etc

    someone correct me if i'm wrong lol. i'm still learning
    Last edited by DickFer; 06-18-2015 at 05:59 AM.
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  6. 06-18-2015, 06:03 AM #32
    Three
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    Yeah you would be avoiding all those counts were you would be losing money if you played them.
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  7. 06-18-2015, 12:32 PM #33
    DSchles
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    "Kelly betting decides each bet by this formula of current advantage times variance times BR."

    Close!

    "Don you love catching my mistakes."

    No more so than anyone else's!

    "Let me know how I did."

    Well, I might have written, "Kelly betting decides each bet by this formula of current advantage divided by variance times BR."

    Don
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  8. 06-18-2015, 12:49 PM #34
    Shadowless
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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    "Kelly betting decides each bet by this formula of current advantage times variance times BR."

    Close!

    "Don you love catching my mistakes."

    No more so than anyone else's!

    "Let me know how I did."

    Well, I might have written, "Kelly betting decides each bet by this formula of current advantage divided by variance times BR."

    Don
    Multiplying by the reciprocal is so much easier though!
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  9. 06-18-2015, 01:26 PM #35
    Three
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    Thanks for the correction Don. I wasn't quite sure I had it right. That is why I asked to be checked on.
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  10. 06-18-2015, 02:41 PM #36
    DSchles
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    "Multiplying by the reciprocal is so much easier though!"

    Fine with me. Divide by 1.33 (4/3) or multiply by 0.75 (3/4), which, of course, is the same thing. Just don't multiply by the variance.

    Don
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