The only down side to the dealer cut card is that if the count gets good toward the end of the shoe, you may not get to the cards that will help you. Right? Just by variance, I guess, most of my good counts come early or mid-shoe and then I min-bet into my profits. I have a pretty good spread so it's not so bad at all.
Cloudstreets7087,
I was about to suggest that you edit your post for greater clarity;
before realizing that you are rather handicapped by innumeracy.
Your impressions re: "good counts", etc. are
superstitiously-derived by way of selective memory.
In simple terms - "You have no idea of what you speak."
As an example: a true count of +4 has no "awareness" that a cut card exists deeper into a shoe. What difference does it make? If that sort of count is reached midway through the deck wouldn't you act the same cut card or not? Seems like it's a countermeasure that only works sometimes. Just asking a question here and trying to understand.Originally Posted by metronome
Arnold Snyder discussed the issue of high card clumping behind the cut card in Blackbelt in Blackjack in the section titled Opposition Betting.
Basically if the count keeps climbing and does not fall, then that means a disproportionate amount of low cards have been dealt and the player has not been playing at an advantage if the shuffle comes before the count can fall down.
This statement is not a good one although I think most know what you are saying. Counting is about the long run. You get the bets down at the appropriate level sometimes the cards that are expected don't come , sometimes they come as expected and the TC stays the same as you eat through the cards and other times they come even more than expected. It averages out in the long run. The long run is where your advantage is found not the short term. Looking at what cards fell and saying you didn't ave an advantage flies in the face of the basic principles counting is based upon.
Sure, high cards could be clumped right behind the cut card....that sucks. But they can also be clumped right before the cut card. Or they could be spread out. Or they could be clumped in a small section 2 decks before the cut card. They could be anywhere, really. But all we care about is the ratio of high cards to little cards....and we know in the long run, we'll get to play our fair share of the high cards. We don't care WHERE the cards are (unless we're shuffle tracking)...we just care about their density in the remaining shoe.
Deeper pen = better game [all else being equal]. On a 6 decker, cut off 1.5 decks and I'm likely not to play it. Cut off half a deck....you'll know where to find me.
"Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]
This is good stuff. Thank you.Sure, high cards could be clumped right behind the cut card....that sucks. But they can also be clumped right before the cut card. Or they could be spread out. Or they could be clumped in a small section 2 decks before the cut card. They could be anywhere, really. But all we care about is the ratio of high cards to little cards....and we know in the long run, we'll get to play our fair share of the high cards. We don't care WHERE the cards are (unless we're shuffle tracking)...we just care about their density in the remaining shoe.
Deeper pen = better game [all else being equal]. On a 6 decker, cut off 1.5 decks and I'm likely not to play it. Cut off half a deck....you'll know where to find me.
We ramp, though, immediately after the count has reached a level where we should increase the bet. So, we are increasing our bet based on the probability that the low cards will not continue coming out in a disproportionate way. Correct?
Posting Permissions
-*-
Reply With Quote
Bookmarks