Real-Life Example of Variance

[Exoter175]

I see the point you are making Exoter and I agree to it the way you express it.

Having said that I believe when people (including me in some ways) decide to end up sessions after time spent or some win or lose limit, the IMPLICIT assumption is that you NEVER walk away from a positive count. In fact most of the time the exit wil happen at a shuffle or a shoe count going down enough to not make it worthwhile.

The whole idea I get by reading your post seems not considering this assumption.

I tend not to make assumptions of other peoples' play, though I expect most all players never to leave during a period where you'll have a player advantage. What I was really hitting at, is that there should be no arbitrary "decision" to force you to leave, such as a stop win/loss, time limit, etc.

The only two limitations I place upon myself are based on fatigue and heat. I won't stay long after I've let my "max" slip out more than 2 or 3 times, and I won't stay very long after a "super max" has gone out just one time. The fatigue limitation, of course, I lay upon myself if I find myself not focused or "clear" while counting and/or I find myself catching an error in my index plays and/or my count. At that point I'll WO to the bathroom or soda fountains and conduct a quick "diagnostic" of my game, usually in the form of about 10-15 mental questions and I'll either decide to continue with a strict revision of spread limitations, or I"ll bow out for the evening and go take a nap.

Fatigue, and Heat, in my opinion, are the only "allowable" reasons to "end" a session. Of course, within that "heat" limitation is going to be a "you won too much money, now get off the table asap and leave" clause, which I'm sure all players are conscious of.

I have to agree. A session will tell you when it's over. And I have had many 2-3+ hour sessions as well as many 10-20+ sessions. I have tried to cut back on the 20-hour+ sessions, which are a combination of stubbornness in not wanting to end on a sour note, excess energy that propels me forward, and a realization that it's all one continuous session, with some impatience about gettingto the long run. The reason I try to cut back is because it can be damaging to my life away from the casinos, interfering with other commitments. One thing I've learned is that life consists of more than a room without windows.

Attachment 1885

Completely agree with you there. If I have a time constraint within my "normal" window of play, I'll try to size the situation and variance up as best I can with a mind for n0 as well. Life is one long continuous session, and sometimes it has its way of interrupting. I've had times where I've had to walk from "epic" counts due to an emergency IRL, just as I've had convenient session ending phone calls that required my attention and I had an "easy out".

I think the most important thing to note here, and I missed it in my original commentary, is mental fatigue. Even if you commit yourself to a life of free drinks and smoky rooms, you absolutely HAVE to keep tabs on your mental fatigue and health.

I've seen and heard of guys "losing their shit" on the tables before and costing them dearly. Hell, I myself had one occurrence last year where I went on "tilt" and set myself back about 45 hours of play in an hour long tilt session.

Gotta keep yourself in check first and foremost before arbitrary matters like stop losses and stop sessions.

[Goodboy]

I tend not to make assumptions of other peoples' play, though I expect most all players never to leave during a period where you'll have a player advantage. What I was really hitting at, is that there should be no arbitrary "decision" to force you to leave, such as a stop win/loss, time limit, etc.

The only two limitations I place upon myself are based on fatigue and heat. I won't stay long after I've let my "max" slip out more than 2 or 3 times, and I won't stay very long after a "super max" has gone out just one time. The fatigue limitation, of course, I lay upon myself if I find myself not focused or "clear" while counting and/or I find myself catching an error in my index plays and/or my count. At that point I'll WO to the bathroom or soda fountains and conduct a quick "diagnostic" of my game, usually in the form of about 10-15 mental questions and I'll either decide to continue with a strict revision of spread limitations, or I"ll bow out for the evening and go take a nap.

Fatigue, and Heat, in my opinion, are the only "allowable" reasons to "end" a session. Of course, within that "heat" limitation is going to be a "you won too much money, now get off the table asap and leave" clause, which I'm sure all players are conscious of.

I agree with both Fatigue and Heat. So we are on the same camp about that.

Personally I also use predetermined time (triggers 95% of the time) and win / loss limits (triggers 5% of the time) but that's just personal preference related with lifestyle and personal mind aspects of the game. No mathematical or advantage argument for those.

[Three]

I'd be very angry and frustrated if I had that kind of downturn.

Angry? You should never get emotional about your play. Frustrated of course. When I was red chipping a small 10K BR not that long ago I won $3K and lost it back several times before getting an even luckier run. I say even luckier because had the loss came first it would have been much worse. When a sustained losing streak could easily wipe you out getting the win first should be recognized as the blessing it is. Of course I worked I thought I was really onto something with the winning streak and after losing went back to work trying to improve my game. I altered methods of true count calculation that made left no chance to forgetting my count and/or side count. I stopped playing tired and playing just because I showed up and didn't find good conditions. I took the time to learn when and where to find the conditions I was looking for. I figured out my biorhythms to find when I play at peak efficiency and when I am off some as the day progresses. I made sure I got food and drink to keep hydrated and my blood sugar at levels that didn't turn me into an idiot. I also learned more indices and RA indices to lower my N0 and RoR. I read each chapter of BJA3 again individually and made a trip to incorporate each improvement into my game. Finally a large uninterrupted steady gain of enough to get me green chipping. That was the biggest improvement, the better game available to a green chipper. One of the important things red chipping was the incentives that help offset expenses. As a green chipper they only got better. Red chipping I tried to combine playing with travel I was doing anyway. there was one low limit game I would travel to just for the game. When your EV is that small a huge part of success is limiting or eliminating the cost of expenses.

[stopgambling]

Knowledge reduces risk. That's about 30,000 to 50,0000 hands a year.

Money - Assuming you play at a $25 table, (can't see a point to playing that many hours for less) then your financial investment will run $750k to $1.25m - in minimum bets.

The big question is how are you going to spend your time and effort? Finding the best games possible for your TEM seems prudent.

Time - On average, this means sitting at a table about 35 hrs a month or just a little more than an hour a day.
What are you going to do with the other 23 hours? Improve ones game is a novel idea.

Effort - How to spend that hour? With a bunch of half-drunk people providing their opinion? Or straight up against the dealer? Playing a shoe? Or a double deck game with deep pen?

This seems like some "no-brainers" to improve ones bottom line.

You forgot about travelling time . If one doesnt live close to a place that has many games eg LV , time spent on traveling takes a big dent out of you. As far as adequately "bank" , i don't think many players are playing at 1/4 kelly or less .The risk of losing ones bank and the stress is huge. Without any stability on ones living standard ,a player probably would not last for than a few years before hitting a tremendous downturn or unbearable and health threatening stress. Therefore i do think the statement of playing it part time for most is generally accurate. If my logic is as bad as my writing then i would have stopped playing this game a long time ago.

[stopgambling]

Knowledge reduces risk. That's about 30,000 to 50,0000 hands a year.

Money - Assuming you play at a $25 table, (can't see a point to playing that many hours for less) then your financial investment will run $750k to $1.25m - in minimum bets.

The big question is how are you going to spend your time and effort? Finding the best games possible for your TEM seems prudent.

Time - On average, this means sitting at a table about 35 hrs a month or just a little more than an hour a day.
What are you going to do with the other 23 hours? Improve ones game is a novel idea.

Effort - How to spend that hour? With a bunch of half-drunk people providing their opinion? Or straight up against the dealer? Playing a shoe? Or a double deck game with deep pen?

This seems like some "no-brainers" to improve ones bottom line.

You assume i am playing a 100 hand /hr and a few other thing which is not quite true. there are lots of other type of opportunities that just arise out of the blue all the time .what is the point of playing $25 table if you can not spread 1-30 ? what is the point of deep pen DD if you can only play 1 shoe( there is actually a point ) ? Even playing a csm game one can get advantage thru ...... I would not let myself to think just 1 way to win anymore. I was able to wong like a maniac in a center cut double deck for 4-6 hrs a day for few hundred hours just for an example.

[stopgambling]

i also agree with t three although i dont quite agree with his higher level count theory( it is certainly useful with certain condition). eg. speed can not be obtain,crowded but had other factors /opportunities etc...

[Aslan]

I tend not to make assumptions of other peoples' play, though I expect most all players never to leave during a period where you'll have a player advantage. What I was really hitting at, is that there should be no arbitrary "decision" to force you to leave, such as a stop win/loss, time limit, etc.

The only two limitations I place upon myself are based on fatigue and heat. I won't stay long after I've let my "max" slip out more than 2 or 3 times, and I won't stay very long after a "super max" has gone out just one time. The fatigue limitation, of course, I lay upon myself if I find myself not focused or "clear" while counting and/or I find myself catching an error in my index plays and/or my count. At that point I'll WO to the bathroom or soda fountains and conduct a quick "diagnostic" of my game, usually in the form of about 10-15 mental questions and I'll either decide to continue with a strict revision of spread limitations, or I"ll bow out for the evening and go take a nap.

Fatigue, and Heat, in my opinion, are the only "allowable" reasons to "end" a session. Of course, within that "heat" limitation is going to be a "you won too much money, now get off the table asap and leave" clause, which I'm sure all players are conscious of.



Completely agree with you there. If I have a time constraint within my "normal" window of play, I'll try to size the situation and variance up as best I can with a mind for n0 as well. Life is one long continuous session, and sometimes it has its way of interrupting. I've had times where I've had to walk from "epic" counts due to an emergency IRL, just as I've had convenient session ending phone calls that required my attention and I had an "easy out".

I think the most important thing to note here, and I missed it in my original commentary, is mental fatigue. Even if you commit yourself to a life of free drinks and smoky rooms, you absolutely HAVE to keep tabs on your mental fatigue and health.

I've seen and heard of guys "losing their shit" on the tables before and costing them dearly. Hell, I myself had one occurrence last year where I went on "tilt" and set myself back about 45 hours of play in an hour long tilt session.

Gotta keep yourself in check first and foremost before arbitrary matters like stop losses and stop sessions.

Fatigue is an important factor to self-assess. In one's confidence and eagerness to pull out a victory, it's easy to deceive oneself into believing you're good to go. But fatigue can be a killer, dulling the senses, making it difficult to make quick and smart plays and decisions. It ranks right up there with alcohol.

[stopgambling]

Eg. $90 bet x 200+ hand/hr for 3-5 hrs . much better than $300 max bet 1 dd shoe . eg. 50% dd Wong out tc-2 and spread to 2 hands in tc 2 + with one other player for hours ,very little heat . much better than 75% dd s17 for 1 shoe spreading 1-6 ,even 1-8 unless you can keep going to stores after stores like in Lv or other places that have similar condition.

[Exoter175]

I agree with both Fatigue and Heat. So we are on the same camp about that.

Personally I also use predetermined time (triggers 95% of the time) and win / loss limits (triggers 5% of the time) but that's just personal preference related with lifestyle and personal mind aspects of the game. No mathematical or advantage argument for those.

And that's really what a situation like that will boil down to when "lifestile" or "time" considerations become a limiting factor. I'm not saying I'm perfect either, there's times where I've convinced myself to leave a place, even though I haven't triggered either my fatigue or heat requirements. In a situation like that, I'm usually just "okay" with the amount of money I made in a very small amount of time, and I had seen the count through to a stopping point. Usually in situations like this, though it has only happened a few times, the situation arises by me seeing a "unicorn" count almost immediately or within the first shoe or two that I've played. I'll make a few hundred dollars within 20-30 minutes of playing, sometimes in excess of several hundred dollars, and I'll just stop right there. I know what my daily +EV is at each location, I have a fairly conscious mind to where I am on the positive/negative variance spectrum, and in a situation like that, I tend to check out my other AP plays and if there are none, I just go home. I much prefer these days, though they are extremely rare, where I'll earn 2x-3x my daily EV within a half hour of play, and I decide to go kick my feet up and relax for a change. I know my "style" doesn't afford me such a luxury, but I take it and cast it out as an "outlier" and figure the day into my "day off" schedules and just go back to business the next day.

Curious. What did you split? DAS? This is what I mean by spread limitations - "theirs" not mine. There will one of two stops in my world. Win this scenario too often and it's free escort to the parking lot with some kinds words like "your play is too good for us". Losing it too often and you're significant other thinks you're a prime candidate for the laughing academy.

I seem some of these guys wondering around in an incoherent state. It makes me wonder how they got to that point...could be 28 hour sessions at a blackjack table.

If I remember correctly, I was splitting 8's against a dealer 7 or dealer 6 on the final hand. And trust me, I had never been more paranoid than that moment because I had never, to that point, put that much money on the table in sheer terms of the final spread.

The rules in question were H17, DOA, DAS, RSA, HSA, NS, with ~83% pen. It wasn't a "bad" table, and its certainly a beatable one with my usual 1-8 spread at that location.

Seems a little contradictory. But true. Important "decisions" to exit are based on stop win/loss, time limit because that's primarily what leads to heat and fatigue. I would insert the word "absolute" for "allowable". But, of course, not finishing a positive deck is tantamount to leaving money on the table.

Your self-enforced limitations are vital. But this isn't football where you have to prove your greatness. Point is, if you don't get it - then it gets you.

I have more exit trigger points. I tend to look at the game as an investment of time. The question leans more towards why should I stay than when will I leave.

In large part, "your game" is the largest influence of what triggers you to enter or to leave. To some people, like KJ and myself, we play a longevity game so we need the hours within tolerance levels of the floor/dealers etc. Though I am probably a little more cavalier with my hours than he is, I do it solely because I am much younger and would rather get the time in while I can, because I know I won't be doing this "forever". Eventually there's going to be some "young buck" counter-catcher who finally catches on to what I am doing, and then its all over for me. So until then, my cover is paramount to all things, and being able to get as many hours in as possible is where I set the bar, instead of +EV numbers, or n0 numbers, or target goals etc. My only motivational "mark" or goal, is merely hours played each week, each month, each quarter, each year. That's it. If I lose, so be it, but in the long run so long as I don't have to give up EV for cover, I'm going to profit considerably with the sheer number of hands I'll have seen. To me, that makes my exits determined solely by fatigue and perceived heat. I play a very specific, very refined game, and I take just about every measure to "pass" the "checklist" for the EITS so as not to be considered a counter.

You forgot about travelling time . If one doesnt live close to a place that has many games eg LV , time spent on traveling takes a big dent out of you. As far as adequately "bank" , i don't think many players are playing at 1/4 kelly or less .The risk of losing ones bank and the stress is huge. Without any stability on ones living standard ,a player probably would not last for than a few years before hitting a tremendous downturn or unbearable and health threatening stress. Therefore i do think the statement of playing it part time for most is generally accurate. If my logic is as bad as my writing then i would have stopped playing this game a long time ago.

I'll have to agree to disagree here on the basis of stress. I don't think the generalization for "most people" to play "part time" is accurate here. I believe the underlying truth here is that one must be able to handle stress, paranoia, and living "on the edge" well, to be anything MORE than just a "part timer". Truth be told there is absolutely zero advantage of a "part time" play for anyone, anywhere. Simply based on HPH and logged session hours, its mathematically impossible to "beat" the "full time" swing of things, but you've got to be patient, pragmatic, and stoic to handle the turbulence that is APBJ. KJ, more than anyone else on this forum, has shown those traits with unfaltering devotion to what he's doing. Though he is cognizant of his game and tactics sometimes being "weaker" than he'd like, he exercises very solid patience and fortitude to achieve his end result, of which he knows very well will always swing back close to where his expectation lies.

Fatigue is an important factor to self-assess. In one's confidence and eagerness to pull out a victory, it's easy to deceive oneself into believing you're good to go. But fatigue can be a killer, dulling the senses, making it difficult to make quick and smart plays and decisions. It ranks right up there with alcohol.

I'd say mental fatigue more than any other situation is the #1 killer. I've drank and played pretty damned well before, though it is an EXTREME rarity for me to do so as I basically swear off alcohol inside of a casino while I'm there. But mental fatigue, I battle often, and like I've said, I have a "self diagnostic" that I perform to decide if I'm "fit" to continue. Sometimes this triggers at the 12 hour mark, sometimes long after the 20 hour mark. I've had times where I wasn't even in 4 hours and my "focus" was off so badly, not exactly due to fatigue, that I've called it early due to that.

A guy like me simply cannot afford to lose his "edge" due to mental fatigue and stress, which is why I've got several "hoops" that I force myself to jump through before I allow myself to continue. In all actuality, I think it was that one "on tilt" session that made me implement such a measure so that I don't risk losing days or weeks to a mental lapse in my game, because that can cost you considerably in the long run.

[Three]

It was the devastation of almost winning big and then suddenly losing big. That 5 had me by the nuts for weeks. "That's" how cruel this game can be and leave people wondering the street rubbing poop in their hair if they don't know it.

Stick with SD. You would probably commit suicide on the monster count nightmare shoe where you are max betting, getting great matchups and doubling and splitting like crazy just to see the dealer hit to 21 when you get great totals and hit to 17 or 18 when you get stiffs on your doubles. It can last for several decks of play heads up. I usually can't help but laugh. The way I look at it is if I make enough max bats when I am supposed to make them they work as a team and each one is worth the same to me regardless of the outcome. That is what we are doing with the math that assures us we have an advantage. Each time you make that max bet you are more likely to lose than win. To be certain you will be ahead you must play a large number of hands at that bet. You win some and lose some but if you make enough bets expectation and actual results converge. It is tough when the losses come in succession but it is part of the ride. You get wins in succession as well.

I don't know if I have more confidence or just don't have unrealistic expectations. You can't get upset about doing everything right and losing. It is part of getting to that point where expectation and actual results converge. Getting upset about playing everything right is like being upset you didn't hit 17vT at 3rd base when the next card is a 4 and the dealer flips a 6 to make a 20. Sure you would have won if you hit but hitting 17vT when not called for will erode or erase your edge. Just play the hands right and don't worry about the results. If you see that hand enough times with that bet out you will see every result possible. It is part of getting to the long run and expected to happen. Noting to get upset about. It will happen and there is nothing you can do about it except react to it in a way that doesn't wreck your day. All you can do is enjoy the ride or let it put you on tilt costing you more money. Frustration is the strongest thing you should feel.

[Exoter175]

It's called youthful exuberance. I remember going to a 3 hand bet (back in the day) 1st hand was 99. followed by two 20s. Dealer had a 6 upcard. I split my 9s only two recieve another 9. So I split again and got two of the 3 remaining Aces and a 19. So I'm feeling pretty good. Dealer flips a 10 in the hole so I'm feelling even better. Then draws a 5. Something in my brain couldn't accept defeat. Temporarily, I couldn't understand why they were taking my chips. My buddy who was watching over my shoulder states, "oh my gosh she's got 21." This particular play was a thrill for everyone at 9am in an empty casino. In retrospect, I should've been splitting the 10s, I was going out...might as well make a big splash.

You know, when you're in a football game on a Saturday afternoon, running a down and in, you see the green grass underneath your feet and see the ball coming to you...thinking I will score when I catch this ball. Then, all of a sudden, you're on your back, seeing blue sky and wondering why you can't breath. "That" was the feeling I had that day. I sat stunned, as was everyone. It was like I had to think about how to get off the chair and walk out. Feet touch floor - right left right left.

I couldn't play for several weeks thereafter. It had nothing do to with the money - heck the loss didn't amount to 1/10th of a sportsbet. I hate to admit it but I was afraid to get hit like that again. Even though logic suggests it's unlikely - but fear is a weird thing...it can be a motivator or demotivator all in one. It was the devastation of almost winning big and then suddenly losing big. That 5 had me by the nuts for weeks. "That's" how cruel this game can be and leave people wondering the street rubbing poop in their hair if they don't know it.

I know that feeling all too well, to the point that I've come to expect it almost. There's times where I feel I'm clairvoyant, looking at my doubled down 21 hand with a dealer 4 upcard, somehow knowing he/she had a 7 under and about to draw a 10 to push me. Just the other night I caught myself "knowing" what the next two cards that were about to be shown to me, only to defeat me. Had this happen several times. In retrospect, its part of the game. There's only so many possible combinations for a dealer to draw/bust from in this game and eventually you see them all. A couple months ago I think I told some of you about this, I saw my first 8 card dealer 21, and I just so happened to have a big bet out there and watched it get swiped.

But, I believe in the math behind the game and know that eventually those little moments of "outlier" card handling will work themselves out. Its not like I can't say I've never been lucky like that before either

Anyhow I told you that story to say this; It's hard for me to believe you've been playing for such a short time. I can't recall anyone having gained as much savvy - and posess common sense as you in such a short period of time. I too have the utmost respect for KJ. In short, both of you are exceptionally talented individuals, in my opinion. But reading KJ chronicles is like watching a Rocky movie. Sometimes it makes me want to cover and scream "duck" with the shots he's taking. Then...somehow he miraculously recovers and raises his hand in victory at the end of the year. I'm the opposite - I tend to over-prepare - perhaps due to that hit taken years ago.

My frustration or concern is you guys make it sounds so easy. When in fact, it may well be the most difficult endeavor I've ever encountered. If I'm going to lose, then they are going to have to beat me at my best is my mantra. I continue to strive beyond the "Norm" to improve - perfect - my game.

Everybody wants to be Rocky. But no one could take his beatings. So for goodness sake...others that do not posess your uncommon valor - need to learn to cover and duck moreso than learning to punch.

Well, "short time" is relative. I've been a Basic Strategy player for years and I'm no stronger to the casino, so it was only natural for me to make the transition. That being said, after reading post after post after post on this forum, I found KJ's posting to be more akin to the game I wanted to play, than any other player, and it was his insight, mixed with years of BS play and my competitive nature from sports, that really molded my game. Through him, I was able to learn about the situations I'd soon be facing, and how best to handle them, so whenever he posts his insight into his game and his "inner monologue" if you will, about how he handles the fluctuations and variance, its truly enlightening to someone like me who has chosen him as a "mentor" if you will, even if he doesn't know it haha.

I will say though, if not for the fact that I've been a lifelong golfer since the age of 2 when my father made me my first putter, I doubt I'd have the poise and stoic nature to take most of this game in, especially as a full timer. It certainly isn't easy, that's for sure.

[Exoter175]

There are 312 cards in a six-deck shoe. The Hi Lo system only accounts for 77% or 240 of those cards..all given the same value. Seems a little like going bear hunting with a 22 rifle. Maybe some hunters do actually get a bear that way, but my quarter says the bear gets them.

I think this is the most appropriate quote I've ever read that describes counting hi/lo on a 6 deck game.

I kid you not, that is magical for how well it describes the game haha.

[Frank Galvin]

There are 312 cards in a six-deck shoe. The Hi Lo system only accounts for 77% or 240 of those cards..all given the same value. Seems a little like going bear hunting with a 22 rifle. Maybe some hunters do actually get a bear that way, but my quarter says the bear gets them.

Moses, curious observation and insight. Thanks.

Do you perceive any difference in accounting for cards played with Advance Omega II (tag values for 2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 6s, 7s, 9s and 10s, Aces side counted) as opposed to HiLo (tag values for 2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 6s, 10s and Aces). Would you perceive AO2 as not counting 8s and Aces, or just not the 8s, since Aces are side counted? Difference is between 24 (8s only - 92.3%) and 48 (8s and Aces - 84.6%) cards not accounted for in a 6 deck shoe.