Sharky's NFL play of the week

[Math Demon]

Stafford is a great QB.

I'm sorry, Tthree! I haven't had time to read the whole post, but I will.


However, I don't and I can't believe in the above-referenced statement. Stafford is the 24th-ranked QB with 85 qbr, 268 ypg, 7.3 ypa, 13 td, 9 int, 31 sacks.

In QB rating, he ranks behind stellar QBs: Austin Davis (STL - benched), Eli (NYG - HOF QB ), Shaun Hill (STL - benched), Hoyer (CLE), Cousins (WAS - benched), Fitz (HOU - benched), Mettenberger (TEN - Rookie) and RG3 (LOL!).


From NFL.com: "For his career, Matthew Stafford is 0-15 on the road against teams that finished the season with winning records."
__

In contrast, Brady is 5th-ranked QB with 102 qbr, 265 ypg, 7.3 ypa, 24 td, 5 int, 14 sacks.


I'll finish reading the rest of the post. Thanks!


*** Update: I got my ranking wrong. According to NFL.com, Stafford is 24th-ranked QB of starting QBs. He is, in fact, 35th-ranked QB of all QBs who played this season.

[Three]

Put Peyton or Brady at the helm of DET with the same offensive unit and they wouldn't look like Peyton or Brady. Every QB needs time to throw and receivers that get separation. Without that even the greatest QBs in history look bad. Brady has concentrated on short high percentage passes with YAC to make him look good. He looked pretty bad without GRONK this year. After Gron came back he looked amazing. Peyton demands a great O-line in order to sign him. He also demands high quality receivers. This year either Peyton or management put a premium on fielding a good defense as well.

Calvin Johnson has played only 3 healthy games this year. He has missed 3 games, played hurt in a limited capacity in weeks 4 and 5 and has 2 games after coming back from the injury but has re-injured his ankle. This indicates he never really got healthy. His presence helps the other receivers get open. Then you also have to understand what is asked of a QB by the team he is on. If the team is going to win 90% of the time against an opponent by having the QB nit turn the ball over and get first downs in a field position battle and if they win 60% of the time by a more aggressive offensive performance the fact that he didn't put up big numbers in an effort that would win for the team far less often doesn't mean he couldn't have put up big numbers. With the D he has he should complete close to 70% of his passes to keep the clock running. He should get at least a couple first downs each time he gets the ball. He should try not to get a first down too often on first down. His job is to eat the clock while getting first downs and put up more points than the defense puts up without turning the ball over except for perhaps an a deep throw that ends up being the equivalent of a punt. Any turnovers should be in the opponents territory.

Stafford was the top passer against Eli Manning, Cam Newton, Aaron Rogers, Geno Smith, Matt Ryan and Ryan Tannehill. Either Johnson or Tate were the top receivers in 8 of their 10 games. Despite having no protection from his line Stafford gained 4814 yards (4th in the NFL) in 2011 regular season while being sacked 36 times (16th most in NFL) getting 41 TDs (3rd most in the NFL) and 16 INT (4th highest TD to INT ratio in the NFL). IN 2012 he gained 4,927 yards passing (2nd best in the NFL). In 2013 he gained 4482 yards passing (3rd in the NFL). Despite the injury issues to his go to receiver and getting sacked 31 times (4th most in the NFL) he is 12TH in yards gained at 2525 yards this year. Brady dealing with similar injury issues is 9th in yards gained at 2649. Of all the QB's in the top half of the yards/game gained for the year none has been sacked more times or seen as much pressure Only 4 of the 11 QB's that have gained more yards have fewer INT, 5th ranked, 8th ranked, 9th ranked and 11th ranked. Now if he played for a team that has a decent O-line and requires the offense to score more points to win like The Broncos, Colts or Patriots he might be number 1 instead of number 2, 3 0r 4 in the league in previous years.

Go back and look at the Ravens prior and post Trent Dilfer. They had a long list of better QBs come through but they couldn't let the team win as a team. They wanted to put up big numbers and lost almost as many games as they won. Dilfer came along and was arguably the worst QB that played for the Ravens in that era but he did what was best for the team. He did short ball control passes that would not be intercepted. The defense gave up the same number of points through that era as DET. Like 13 points a game. They won 4 games in a row without getting a TD. But come the Super Bowl the only thing open to Dilfer was the long pass. He hadn't thrown deep all year but not because he couldn't. Unlike those that came before and after he had done what gave the team the best chance to win. But in the SB he beat the Giants deep all game long. People were amazed because they didn't think he could because he hadn't. They didn't realize he hadn't because that gave the team the best chance to win. The primadonnas that came before and after him were only happy if the team won or lost by their passing attack. They lost the team a lot of games they would have won otherwise.

[Gamblor]

2-3 last week brings me to 24-19-3. Damn Buffalo game, the refs were just handing it to the Dolphins late in the game.

NYJ +4.5 vs Buf - Buffalo must be discombobulated. Vengeance for Jets. Gotta take 4.5 points on what is basically a neutral field, and whats likely going to be an ugly game.
Ari +7 vs SEA - I'm higher on Arizona than most, and lower on Seattle than most, so makes sense. Not overly concerned with Fitzgerald injury, wasn't doing too much anyways. Rest comfortably with 7 points in another low scoring ugly game.
Stl +5 vs SD - Stl D is surging. We're seeing bad Rivers and I expect it to continue for a while. A weak pick.
Under 43.5 Stl vs SD - Same reasoning as above.
Under 44.5 Was vs SF - Both teams will look to run. Bob Griffin is awful. Kapernick is looking pretty crappy too.

[Three]

Damn Buffalo game, the refs were just handing it to the Dolphins late in the game.

I hear you on that one. The refs didn't decide the game but they definitely decided the ATS bets. Me think the fix was in.

NYJ +4.5 vs Buf - Buffalo must be discombobulated. Vengeance for Jets. Gotta take 4.5 points on what is basically a neutral field, and whats likely going to be an ugly game.
Ari +7 vs SEA - I'm higher on Arizona than most, and lower on Seattle than most, so makes sense. Not overly concerned with Fitzgerald injury, wasn't doing too much anyways. Rest comfortably with 7 points in another low scoring ugly game.
Stl +5 vs SD - Stl D is surging. We're seeing bad Rivers and I expect it to continue for a while. A weak pick.

In a week with poor options I like your picks. I had BUF as a very weak play at home but if they moved the game to a neutral field I will lay off it most likely. We will see what the injury report says.

I've got AZ as a weak pick. Playing in the cold rain is something that most teams have trouble with but is the norm for SEA. Add in the noise of the sound amplifying stadium design and it may be a tough go for AZ but AZ and 7 points is pretty tasty.

This pick I don't like as much. I have SD but I am not sure it even rates a weak play. STL has had a tough schedule both at home and on the road. Dominating DEN in STL was pretty impressive. Will there be a letdown? SD has definitely been in a tail spin. I would be a little leery of this one. STL will be on the road. Their offense is less productive on the road but the matcup with SD D is not bad. I am on the fence in this one.

Under 43.5 Stl vs SD - Same reasoning as above.
Under 44.5 Was vs SF - Both teams will look to run. Bob Griffin is awful. Kapernick is looking pretty crappy too.

Both my score numbers for each game agree with your selection of under (which is a good sign) but they aren't under by enough for me to pick them strictly based on that.

WAS tends to be a passing team. They don't match up very well with that strategy but I think they will start with it. If they start with it there will be limited time to switch to the run unless SF doesn't get a nice lead. SF is more run oriented but has a good matchup for either style of attack. I expect a balanced attack that favors the run more than most teams as is their norm. SF has been horrible in the red zone at home and WAS as been on the tough side defensivle for opponents in the red zone on the road.

[Exoter175]

Last week: 4-1
Season Forum total: 5-5

This week.

1. NYJ @ BUF (In Detroit) 41.5 line, taking the over on this one.
2. DAL @ NYG 47.5 line, taking the over on this one as well.
3. TB @ CHI 46.5 line, taking the under on this one.
4. JAX @ IND 50.5 line, taking the under on this one as well.
5. CIN @ HOU 43.5 line, taking the over here and hopping on the Mallet train!

[Three]

Last week: 4-1
Season Forum total: 5-5

This week.

1. NYJ @ BUF (In Detroit) 41.5 line, taking the over on this one.
2. DAL @ NYG 47.5 line, taking the over on this one as well.
3. TB @ CHI 46.5 line, taking the under on this one.
4. JAX @ IND 50.5 line, taking the under on this one as well.
5. CIN @ HOU 43.5 line, taking the over here and hopping on the Mallet train!

Nice picks last week. Congrats.

1) The line is pretty much on the mark here. I am a little surprised you are taking over rather than under but I got it as a coin flip.

2) My numbers are tight on both sides of the line. They don't know the giants most productive defensive player won't be playing. Before factoring in the injury it was a coin flip. You probably have a winner here.

3) My number are on both sides of the line. CHI still has a defense that is missing key pieces and others playing hurt. Tampa bay has allowed so many points on the road but CHI has struggled to put up points at home. The other side Tampa Bay has been inconsistent and struggled to score on the road but CHI has given up tons of points at home. This type of mismatch for both teams means anything could happen. I am calling it a coin flip and wouldn't touch this game unless it was to take a big dog.

4) Another line that seems tight to my predicted scores. The Jags haven't scored much in any game on the road this year and allowed opponents to run up big scores. Ind at home stats don't make me think this game will be any different. After the rout last week that IND received I am sure they would be happy to run up a big score. That incentive might push it to an over but the under looks barely more appealing. Good luck. I won't have a pick on this one.

5) My numbers fall tight barely on each side of the line. HOU recent home games have certainly had monster scores. The matchup stats say the game should be predictable using the stats. Both teams have pretty good defenses. CIN may be looking for revenge. I think HOU knocked them out of the playoffs both times they met in the post season in the last 3 years, if memory serves. That can make the game more of a wild card. LOL Sorry, I couldn't resist the pun. These were the last 2 games between the teams. Another tight line I will be laying off. I am surprised with 2 really good defensive teams you are picking the over. I am not saying you are wrong because I have the line as being right were it should be.

Good luck this week. I didn't see much opportunity in the lines this week. I think my picks are all weak. Hopefully you feel better about yours.

[Three]

Results for 2014 season:
Week 4: 5-2-0
Week 5: 2-1-0
Week 6: 2-4-0
Week 7: 4-2-1
Week 8: 1-3-0
Week 9: 4-3-0
Week 10: 2-2-0
Wee 11: 6-7-0
Week 12:1-6-0
Week 13: 0-0-0
Week 14: 5-2-0
Season: 32-32-1

[Three]

Week 13:
Browns over BILLS; (A- vs C-, difference 2)
RAMS over Raiders; (B+ vs D+, difference 2)
VIKINGS over Panthers; (B vs D-, difference 2.5)
Broncos over CHIEFS; (A vs F, difference 4)

Week 14:
SAINTS over Panthers; (B vs D-, difference 2.5)
Tampa Bay over LIONS; (B vs D, difference 2)
BRONCOS over Bills; (A vs C-, difference 2.5)
CARDINALS over Chiefs; (B vs F, difference 3)
Seahawks over EAGLES; (A- vs c-, difference 2)

Week 15:
Tampa Bay over PANTHERS; (B vs D-, difference 2.5)
BROWNS over Bengals; (A- vs C-, difference 2)
Vikings over LIONS; (B vs D, difference 2)

Week 16:
Browns over PANTHERS; (A- vs D-, difference 3)
STEELERS over Chiefs; (C+ vs F, difference 2.5)
Broncos over BENGALS; (A vs C-, difference 2.5)

Week 17:
FALCONS over Panthers; (B- vs D-, difference 2)
REDSKINS over Cowboys; (B vs D, difference 2)
Chargers over CHIEFS; (B- vs F, difference 2.5)
BRONCOS over Raiders; (A vs D+, difference 3.5)

Grading system with the wrong grades:
Week 1: 2-4-1
Week 2: 1-1-0
Week 3: 2-4-0
week 4: 2-3-0
Week 5: 3-0-0
Week 6: 0-2-0
Week 7: 2-1-0
Week 8: 2-2-1
Week 9: 2-2-0
Week 10: 2-1-0
Week 11: 2-1-0
Season: 20-21-1

[Gamblor]

In a week with poor options

Yeah, nothing too great this weak.

[Exoter175]

Nice picks last week. Congrats.

1) The line is pretty much on the mark here. I am a little surprised you are taking over rather than under but I got it as a coin flip.

2) My numbers are tight on both sides of the line. They don't know the giants most productive defensive player won't be playing. Before factoring in the injury it was a coin flip. You probably have a winner here.

3) My number are on both sides of the line. CHI still has a defense that is missing key pieces and others playing hurt. Tampa bay has allowed so many points on the road but CHI has struggled to put up points at home. The other side Tampa Bay has been inconsistent and struggled to score on the road but CHI has given up tons of points at home. This type of mismatch for both teams means anything could happen. I am calling it a coin flip and wouldn't touch this game unless it was to take a big dog.

4) Another line that seems tight to my predicted scores. The Jags haven't scored much in any game on the road this year and allowed opponents to run up big scores. Ind at home stats don't make me think this game will be any different. After the rout last week that IND received I am sure they would be happy to run up a big score. That incentive might push it to an over but the under looks barely more appealing. Good luck. I won't have a pick on this one.

5) My numbers fall tight barely on each side of the line. HOU recent home games have certainly had monster scores. The matchup stats say the game should be predictable using the stats. Both teams have pretty good defenses. CIN may be looking for revenge. I think HOU knocked them out of the playoffs both times they met in the post season in the last 3 years, if memory serves. That can make the game more of a wild card. LOL Sorry, I couldn't resist the pun. These were the last 2 games between the teams. Another tight line I will be laying off. I am surprised with 2 really good defensive teams you are picking the over. I am not saying you are wrong because I have the line as being right were it should be.

Good luck this week. I didn't see much opportunity in the lines this week. I think my picks are all weak. Hopefully you feel better about yours.

I honestly don't feel too "great" about the picks this week, the outliers really aren't as strong to pick from.

As for that Buffalo game, I couldn't take the under on that one. Divisional matchup where both teams basically suck right now, with buffalo having the stronger team but a rattled Orton at QB, its going to end up being a surprising second half where both teams all but abandon the run, of which they will do heavily in the first half.

[Sharky]

Week 12 picks:
1) GB -7.5 @ MIN

2) TB +7 @ CHI

3) AZ +7.5 @ SEA

5) DAL -2.5 @NYG: DAl is reasonably healthy and NYG are missing their RT and their most productive defensive player in WLB Jacquian Williams. Easy pick especially if Cromartie's back can't take a pounding.

I was hoping to get HOU +1 but the best I saw was HOU PK. That just wasn't enough for a play. I will probably have some Monday Night Football picks as well.

but three, your lines are bogus every week....GB was 8, TB was 4.5 and ARIZ is 7...seriously dude, it matters...you had the Jets one week at +11 and they were +8...it is comical the liberties you take.

EDIT; HOUSTON WAS -2.5 btw

CAN I GET THIS BOOKIES NAME AND # PLEASSE???

[tjr5259]

Would anyone take the Cowboys -6 or the over 49? Both teams are too unpredictable in my opinion.

[Sharky]

Would anyone take the Cowboys -6 or the over 49? Both teams are too unpredictable in my opinion.

no opinion on that one, sry...but for the record i put my money where my mouth is and actually bet my plays....and the lines I give are the line I actually put the bet in at (not scouring net to find lowest/highest possible line all week and use that)