Sharky's NFL play of the week

[Three]

Unless you understand how the Chiefs will use Eric Berry now that he's back in the lineup and healthy, you'll likely assume way too much about the defense, or way to little.

Players coming off an injury are never 100%. They come back when they can play and re-injury risks are low enough. Schedule and playoff hopes can cause a player to come back too early or get extra rest to recover.

I compared one QB to another the other week, against your advice, and I won that contest.

I can't believe on a sight that is all about stats that you would act like this was the correct analysis because you gat a good result. That is the most ploppy-like statement I have heard in a while.

Did you know that Seattle is the worst defense in the league when defending against passes under 10 yards? Did you know Kansas City has the best offense when passing under 10 yards? Did you know that Alex Smith has over 80% of his passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage?

N But KC will run the ball 50% of the time no matter what happens in the game. They stick to their offensive game plan religiously. No other team in the NFL is harder to get to go off their style of play.
You want to compare passers by zone.
Russell Wilson:
Mid-range passing (5 to 15 yards): rank #2 passer rating 108
Long-range passing (15+ yard passes): rank #5 passer rating 110
Leads the league in mid-range passing to the right.


Alex Smith:
Doesn't make the league leaders (top 5) in any general range passing category.
But he leads the league in mid-range middle passing.

Seattle simply won't have the opportunities to run against Kansas City, the way these two teams match up.

So KC has the second worst yards/play rush defense against the best rush offense and they will shut the best rush offense (a run first offense) down. I what fantasy world do you live in. I agree that SEA will get a ton of scramble yards against the over aggressive KC defense. Aggression works great against most teams but the openings left behind by an aggressive move will either be exploited by Wilson passing or Wiison running. This is where a KC strength will be their achilles heal in this matchup.

A majority of the rushing yards will come from broken plays with QB pressure where Wilson has to break the pocket and get to the edge, and I mean the MAJORITY of it, too.

Like I said Wilson is a huge part of the run game for SEA. hat you say just means SEA will have a much better than average day running the ball. Teams that get a lot of sacks get killed by SEA. If you bring your D-backs up to cover the scramble his incredible Mid-range and deep passing stats kill you. You must wait for Wilson to cross the line of scrimmage to commit to stopping him or you get big time burned. It is a unique headache for the opposing D. The more aggressive the D the worse they fair.

Look at what has happened this year:
GB: 22 sacks this year. GB lost in a blowout 16-36. They got 1 sack for no yards. Wilson gained 27 yards in 7 attempts.
SD: 15 sacks this year. SD won 21-30. They got 2 sacks for 22 yards. Wilson gained 18 yards in 2 attempts.
DEN: 24 sacks this year. DEN lost 20-26. They got 3 sacks for 27 yards. Wilson gained 17 yards in 1 attempt.
WAS: 23 sacks this year. WAS lost big 27-17. They got 1 sack for 8 yards. Wilson gained 122 yards in 11 attempts.
DAL: 10 sacks. DAL won 30-23. They got 2 sacks for no yards. Wilson gained 12 yards in 2 attempts.
STL: 17 sacks. STL won 26-28. They got 3 sacks for 21 yards. Wilson gained 106 yards in 7 attempts.
CAR: 21 sacks. CAR lost 31-9. They got 1 sack for 8 yards. Wilson gained 35 yards in 6 attempts.
OAK: 8 sacks. OAK lost 24-30. They got 1 sack for 2 yards. Wilson gained 31 yards in 8 attempts.
NYG: 16 sacks. NYG lost in a blowout 17-38. They got 2 sacks for 12 yards. Wilson got 107 yards in 14 attempts.

So SEA is teams with 20 sacks or more are 0-4 against SEA. These teams are GB, DEN, WAS and CAR. Now GB and DEN are two of the best teams in the NFC. KC has 28 sacks. Wilson is just a nightmare to blitz against. He finds the uncovered receiver or picks up yards on his own if the receivers are covered.

The trouble with facing SEA is you are facing the QB rated #3 in the league. The best running game in the league. They are a run first team which is something you rarely face. If you line up to stop the run you are facing the #3 rated passer in the league If you play for the pass and blitz Wilson rolls right and either beats you on foot or hits the open receivers left on the right to stop the run. That is why Wilson is the top rated QB for right mid-range passes and close to the top rating for deep right passes. You leave him alone and you have the 3rd best passer with time to throw. It is almost impossible to stop such a versatile offense.

[Exoter175]

Players coming off an injury are never 100%. They come back when they can play and re-injury risks are low enough. Schedule and playoff hopes can cause a player to come back too early or get extra rest to recover.


I can't believe on a sight that is all about stats that you would act like this was the correct analysis because you gat a good result. That is the most ploppy-like statement I have heard in a while.


N But KC will run the ball 50% of the time no matter what happens in the game. They stick to their offensive game plan religiously. No other team in the NFL is harder to get to go off their style of play.
You want to compare passers by zone.
Russell Wilson:
Mid-range passing (5 to 15 yards): rank #2 passer rating 108
Long-range passing (15+ yard passes): rank #5 passer rating 110
Leads the league in mid-range passing to the right.


Alex Smith:
Doesn't make the league leaders (top 5) in any general range passing category.
But he leads the league in mid-range middle passing.


So KC has the second worst yards/play rush defense against the best rush offense and they will shut the best rush offense (a run first offense) down. I what fantasy world do you live in. I agree that SEA will get a ton of scramble yards against the over aggressive KC defense. Aggression works great against most teams but the openings left behind by an aggressive move will either be exploited by Wilson passing or Wiison running. This is where a KC strength will be their achilles heal in this matchup.
Like I said Wilson is a huge part of the run game for SEA. hat you say just means SEA will have a much better than average day running the ball. Teams that get a lot of sacks get killed by SEA. If you bring your D-backs up to cover the scramble his incredible Mid-range and deep passing stats kill you. You must wait for Wilson to cross the line of scrimmage to commit to stopping him or you get big time burned. It is a unique headache for the opposing D. The more aggressive the D the worse they fair.

Look at what has happened this year:
GB: 22 sacks this year. GB lost in a blowout 16-36. They got 1 sack for no yards. Wilson gained 27 yards in 7 attempts.
SD: 15 sacks this year. SD won 21-30. They got 2 sacks for 22 yards. Wilson gained 18 yards in 2 attempts.
DEN: 24 sacks this year. DEN lost 20-26. They got 3 sacks for 27 yards. Wilson gained 17 yards in 1 attempt.
WAS: 23 sacks this year. WAS lost big 27-17. They got 1 sack for 8 yards. Wilson gained 122 yards in 11 attempts.
DAL: 10 sacks. DAL won 30-23. They got 2 sacks for no yards. Wilson gained 12 yards in 2 attempts.
STL: 17 sacks. STL won 26-28. They got 3 sacks for 21 yards. Wilson gained 106 yards in 7 attempts.
CAR: 21 sacks. CAR lost 31-9. They got 1 sack for 8 yards. Wilson gained 35 yards in 6 attempts.
OAK: 8 sacks. OAK lost 24-30. They got 1 sack for 2 yards. Wilson gained 31 yards in 8 attempts.
NYG: 16 sacks. NYG lost in a blowout 17-38. They got 2 sacks for 12 yards. Wilson got 107 yards in 14 attempts.

So SEA is teams with 20 sacks or more are 0-4 against SEA. These teams are GB, DEN, WAS and CAR. Now GB and DEN are two of the best teams in the NFC. KC has 28 sacks. Wilson is just a nightmare to blitz against. He finds the uncovered receiver or picks up yards on his own if the receivers are covered.

The trouble with facing SEA is you are facing the QB rated #3 in the league. The best running game in the league. They are a run first team which is something you rarely face. If you line up to stop the run you are facing the #3 rated passer in the league If you play for the pass and blitz Wilson rolls right and either beats you on foot or hits the open receivers left on the right to stop the run. That is why Wilson is the top rated QB for right mid-range passes and close to the top rating for deep right passes. You leave him alone and you have the 3rd best passer with time to throw. It is almost impossible to stop such a versatile offense.

Nothing but more long winded remarks about empty statistics.

Let me touch on a few things real quick.

1. Players are never 100% when coming off injury? Perhaps, but did you know the Chiefs intentionally held Eric Berry out longer than needed so that he'd come back and play 100% healthy? Even when 100% healthy, they eased his introduction back to the defense over the last two weeks partially because of outstanding play from new signees (A mark where your analysis you keep posting about grades them as an F), and partially because of the packages we'd be using against those teams.

2. Blitzing teams are 0-4 against Russel Wilson and the Seahawks, and he causes them nightmares. How often do you think Kansas City actually blitzes? Do some research on this one, Kansas City RARELY blitzes. In fact, most of their sacks come from a 3 or 4 man rush while dropping 7 or 8 into coverage/contain/spy. Kyle Orton, one of the worst passers in the league against the blitz, didn't get blitzed much last week, do you know why? Because KC chose to tighten up the deep passing attack and limit the Bills offense to short, pedestrian passes to keep the ball in front of them. They call this the "bend but don't break" mentality. Do you know what statistic is the most "harmed" in this kind of defensive play? Yards Per Carry. When you are dropping 7 or 8 guys back into coverage, you're giving yourself a huge mismatch against the run when you've got 3 or 4 guys trying to teat up the offensive line and very often a Tight End, to stop the run. In situations like these, its very common to give up 3-5 yards per carry when you're facing a 6 on 4 blocking affair.

3. Your underhanded remark about statistics on a statistics site is ridiculous. I'm giving you reasons why you shouldn't put as much stock in some of your stats, and giving you statistics that matter, and you're shooting me down for "empty" statistics.

4. Quit talking about the "best rushing offense". They gained 350 yards last week in a statistical anomaly of a game. If you take away the "over expectation" yards, they are 3rd in the league. And even then you'd make more weight of that than you should, with Kansas City facing many run first teams this year, and then coupling that with having faced the best QB's in the game which does nothing but make the run game more effective against this style of defense.

5. What is all this nonsense about Russel Wilson being the #3 rated passer in the league? According to the stats you follow so adamantly, he's the #36 passer in the league according to Passer Rating, on the 31st rated passing team. But no, you want to skew his statistics a little to justify your argument.

6. Lets look at a few points that matter. Kansas City having faced the harder schedule thusfar in the season, with Seattle pretty close on its coattails, Seattle has scored 2.x more points per game than KC, but gives up 3.x more points per game than KC. KC gives up about 17 points per game, and scores 24. Seattle scores about 27 points per game, and gives up 21. (Numbers rounded up and down of course).

Take those numbers into consideration with KC being a 3-1 home team and 3-2 road team. Now bring Seattle into Arrowhead stadium, loudest stadium in the league where you simply can't go off of cadence or make that many audibles, and Kansas City will have your number from the first whistle, especially with Kansas City fans being there in support, snow or not. This is a "playoff" game to us in Kansas City. This is the only game left on the schedule we can afford to lose, and we don't want to lose it because we want to keep pace with Denver in the division, with 1 more matchup, at Arrowhead, between them left to play.

In fact, to date, if Kansas City wins out their division matchups, including that game at Arrowhead with the Broncos, and both teams finish with the same records, the tie breaker will go to division games, in which they will tie, and then to common games. Where as of this week, Kansas City would hold a 1 game advantage over the Broncos, if they beat Seattle this week.

That's a ton of motivation for this team, at home, and for this crowd.

Another statistic you've failed to talk about that matters? Time of Possession. Kansas City is #7 in TOP for offense, Seattle #11. #6 on defensive ToP for KC, # 13 for Seattle.

Remember that remark I made about Seattle not having much of a chance to get drives going? That's what I mean, that's what I'm implying. If the Chiefs are averaging about 4 more minutes with the ball per game, they are going to beat you because either they are leading, or they are within a single drive of beating you.

I baffles me to believe you could be so adamant about Seattle running the ball, when the Chiefs have the #3 ranked defense against 3rd down conversions, while Seattle is ranked #23. You make this big deal about Kansas City's defense giving up so much because of a 20th ranked defense "supposedly", yet they are #9 in yards per play allowed and #5 in first downs allowed per game.

Give me a break, quit looking at just "yardage".