European blackjack - advantage over the house in start?!?

[Black Yak]

Sprinter - I hope it all goes well where you are - it sounds like you are at a far more tolerant place than I have found.

For anyone else who is travelling to play I wanted to share my experience of a few "ahead off the top" blackjack games in other countries. It's fun seeking out new places and all the excitement and anticipation of getting there. In this situation I have still counted so I can at least play my indices, but not raised or lowered my bets, with the same idea that I would last longer that way. Each time at "ahead off the top" places I've been backed off within a couple of sessions. My record for shortest ban is 10 minutes. I've even been backed off for flat betting on a CSM with conditions that put me ahead. It just seems like the worst business model to create a game that they can't afford to let people play!

I would recommend if heading to any of these places, to go in tourist season when there are a lot of other travellers around, as even with medium stakes you may very well be the largest bettor and the only foreigner in the place, which doesn't help with longevity! If you blend in with crowds there is probably a better chance.

Some clubs lure customers in with fancy websites and the promise of the best blackjack rules in the world, but they are really banking only on people who can't play. They know that they can't afford to let someone who even knows basic strategy sit at the table, and it's easy for them to put some hapless member of staff upstairs on the monitor with a BS chart to check you out. Far easier than catching a counter! It's pretty easy to figure out which clubs have this attitude as if you call up their guest relations line they will let you know that junkets are available to all but blackjack players.

The other thing to factor in is the exchange rate. Some clubs in Europe will take dollars and give you back the same amount if you win plus the rest in local, but if you lose they might only pay you back in local currency. It's definitely worth checking it out before you go. Each club is different, but getting stung for 3% exchange can wipe out profits. The worst I have encountered is a country where casinos all charged 8% on exchange! So you are left with the bank rate by day unless you know a local AP who can help out.

So in most cases for me personally it's been a laugh, and really interesting in terms of seeing new places, new rules, side bets etc, but really not worth it in terms of any income. Most trips I have been lucky in that I've just managed to pay for the hotel and flight and it's game over!

My last recommendations when scouting out foreign games are about travel arrangements. Definitely make sure you have only a one way if visa requirements will allow that, or a very flexible flight onwards, and book only your first night or two at a hotel. It's a pain if you fly somewhere on a fixed return having booked a non refundable week at a hotel, and you're backed off in the first night or two. If arrangements are flexible you can just move on to greener pastures when you're burned out at your first destination.

I don't like being asked where i am staying, especially if it's a smaller location - you just feel like a sitting duck, getting a sickening feeling each time you open the hotel safe! Please please let it still be there! I definitely say no to courtesy cars or get them to drop me off at another hotel. It just feels like such a risk when someone at the casinos friend / brother / cohort could easily be working at your hotel. I'm hoping to get some sort of forex or multi currency account with low fees so I can just withdraw and deposit local currency without too much loss and not have these sorts of worries.

It's also worth factoring in that Data protection laws that protect us in most english speaking countries do not necessarily apply abroad. So being backed off at one club might result in your photos being uploaded to a centralised security operation for the whole area / country regardless of if they are in the same chain or not. I've had experience of a centralised database where after flying in and being backed off in my first club I drove to a different area and security staff at a completely unrelated club literally ran through the main floor to intercept me before I even got to a table! It just got worse from there. In this situation it's worth swapping for a new rental car every day or two. Coming and going from clubs at night it's not great for security to be parking a distance away then walking, and in Casinos in big resorts it just looks weird to walk from the gate after parking your car under some hedge.

I really don't want to put people off. It's the best thing ever travelling having a holiday and making money playing cards - I just wanted to highlight some things that might be helpful!

[Gronbog]

Ok. A sim for these rules and clarifications using the normal ENHC basic strategy (don't double 11 vs 10 or A, don't split 8,8 vs 10 or A, don't split A,A vs A) and your stated number of decks (6) and penetration (78%) gives a player edge of 0.05%.

What I really wanted to give you is the correct strategy for 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards. Because of the 6 card charlie, there is a separate strategy for each. As the size of your hand grows, the more aggressive you are with hitting. Here are the strategies I generated:

http://gronbog.org/results/blackjack...-strategy.html
http://gronbog.org/results/blackjack...-strategy.html
http://gronbog.org/results/blackjack...-strategy.html
http://gronbog.org/results/blackjack...-strategy.html

As I was preparing this, I realized that there is an error in the 5 card strategy with respect to A,10 vs anything. Clearly one should hit this, since it is a guaranteed 2/1 win to do so. However, my generator currently doesn't consider hitting any 21 since, up until now, I had never encountered a situation in which a hand of 21 could be improved by hitting. As such, I can't give you the player edge for using this strategy right now and, unfortunately (but fortunately for me), I'm just about to leave on a 2 week vacation. If anyone is interested I'll correct the problem and get the number when I return.

There are some variations, even for 2 cards, with respect to the 6 card charlie and 777:

• hit 12 vs 4 (virtually the same EV as standing though)
• hit 2,2 and 3,3 vs 2
• hit 7,7 vs 10 (instead of surrendering)

Hover your mouse over a cell in the tables to see the simulated EV for each play

[Gronbog]

As I was preparing this, I realized that there is an error in the 5 card strategy with respect to A,10 vs anything. Clearly one should hit this, since it is a guaranteed 2/1 win to do so. However, my generator currently doesn't consider hitting any 21 since, up until now, I had never encountered a situation in which a hand of 21 could be improved by hitting. As such, I can't give you the player edge for using this strategy right now

Back from vacation (no computers and (hard to believe) no blackjack!). I corrected the problem mentioned above and have updated the tables at the links I posted above. The 5 card strategy is the only one that changed and the change is to hit soft 21, as expected.

Simulation of this strategy results in a player edge of 0.29%, which is an improvement over the previously posted 0.05% for using the normal ENHC basic strategy.

[Sprinter]

Thank you very much for your help and sorry about the late response, I was also on vacation and came back a few days ago.
I have one more correction: I can't double on 21 (blackjack), but I can double when I split aces and got a ten, this is not blackjack than 11/21. Does it something change in a player edge or it is a same 0.29%?
I have index numbers for ENHC game, but I don't have for 6 card Charlie pays 2 to 1. Where is the bigger advantage for player, play index numbers for ENHC game or only play basic strategy for 6 card Charlie?

[Gronbog]

Thank you very much for your help and sorry about the late response, I was also on vacation and came back a few days ago.

You're welcome. I hope you're finding the information useful.

I have one more correction: I can't double on 21 (blackjack), but I can double when I split aces and got a ten, this is not blackjack than 11/21. Does it something change in a player edge or it is a same 0.29%?

This clarification does not impact the player edge of 0.29% because the strategy does not call for doubling blackjack and you did specify that one could could double after spitting aces, including on A,T.

I have index numbers for ENHC game, but I don't have for 6 card Charlie pays 2 to 1. Where is the bigger advantage for player, play index numbers for ENHC game or only play basic strategy for 6 card Charlie?

You would have to show me the index numbers that you have in order for me to run a sim for comparison. Of course, using the indices for these actual rules would be even better and, if you're bothering to count in order to play the indices, why not also vary your bet?

[Sprinter]

1. Insurance = 3
2. 12 vs. 2 = 3
3. 12 vs. 3 = 2
4. 12 vs. 4 = 0
5. 12 vs. 5 = -2
6. 12 vs. 6 = -1
7. 13 vs. 2 = -1
8. 13 vs. 3 = -2
9. 14 vs. 11 = 9
10. 15 vs. 7 = 10
11. 15 vs. 8 = 10
12. 15 vs. 9 = 8
13. 15 vs. 10 = 4
14. 15 vs. 11 = 5
15. 16 vs. 7 = 9
16. 16 vs. 8 = 7
17. 16 vs. 9 = 5
18. 16 vs. 10 = 0
19. 16 vs. 11 = 3

Double down
1. 9 vs. 2 = 1
2. 9 vs. 3 = 0
3. 9 vs. 4 = -2
4. 9 vs. 7 = 3
5. 9 vs. 8 = 7
6. 10 vs. 9 = -1
7. 11 vs. 10 = 3
Soft double down
8. A,8 vs. 2 = 8
9. A,8 vs. 3 = 5
10. A,8 vs. 4 = 3
11. A,8 vs. 5 = 1
12. A,8 vs. 6 = 1
13. A,9 vs. 2 = 10
14. A,9 vs. 3 = 8
15. A,9 vs. 4 = 6
16. A,9 vs. 5 = 5
17. A,9 vs. 6 = 4

Split
1. 2,2 vs. 8 = 5
2. 3,3 vs. 2 = 0
3. 3,3 vs. 8 = 4
4. 4,4 vs. 3 = 6
5. 4,4 vs. 4 = 1
6. 7,7 vs. 8 = 5
7. 9,9 vs. 7 = 3
8. 10,10 vs. 2 = 11
9. 10,10 vs. 3 = 8
10. 10,10 vs. 4 = 6
11. 10,10 vs. 5 = 5
12. 10,10 vs. 6 = 4

Early surrender
1. 12 vs. 10 = 8
2. 13 vs. 10 = 3
3. 14 vs. 9 = 6
4. 14 vs. 10 = 0
5. 15 vs. 8 = 7
6. 15 vs. 9 = 2
7. 15 vs. 10 = -2
8. 16 vs. 8 = 4
9. 16 vs. 9 = 0
10. 16 vs. 10 = -5
11. 17 vs. 10 = 5
12. 8,8 vs. 9 = 7

The player should stand/double/split if the True Count equals or exceeds the Index Number, otherwise hit.
The player should surrender if the True Count equals or exceeds the Index Number.

[BlackJackAgain]

At a glance the indices look mostly OK. You might want to adjust a little depending on whether you are rounding, flooring or truncating indices.

Remember that your index plays in a 6D game have much less impact than your betting spread. Betting spread and hours at the table beat indices hands down.
Also, getting your indices wrong by +/- one or even two will not impact your results that much.

Other might say that you have to squeeze out every single 0.01% of EV, and it's wrong to leave any money at the table by not learning all indices. I tend to agree with Wong's approach - learn a limited set of indices, drop the big minus numbers (you have a minimum bet out at 16 v 10, how many times and how much EV will you gain by hitting and not surrendering at TC-5...)

D.

[Three]

If you have a strong playing count iy is likely ace neutral. You can have quite an advantage in a negative playing count if aces are abundant. You are betting advantage bets in a negative playing count. That is why these counts make up most of their extra EV in negative counts. The negative count is the playing count not the betting count. Ace reckoned counts only have one count for playing and betting. They are actually playing many of those same negative playing counts but don't realize they are negative. This situation of slightly ramped bets due to ace surplus and T deficit is most of the difference in SCORE between the two types of counts. Of course when looking at specific counts rather than in general this will vary some.

[Sprinter]

If I have an advantage over the house by 0.29% at the beginning of the game is worth the following:

TC -3 = -1%
TC -2 = -0.5%
TC -1 = 0
TC 0 = +0.5% (+0.29%)
TC +1 = 1%
TC +2 = 1.5%
TC +3 = 2%
TC +4 = 2.5%
....

[BlackJackAgain]

That's right - standard BJ game advantage goes up by 0.5% per TC, so you would add your 0.29% to each
i.e. +0 = 0.29%, +1 = 0.79% +2 = 1.29% etc.
(for a close enough estimate - 0.29% is a basic strategy advantage summed across all counts. Some of the bonus rules have different values at different TCs - for example five card charlies will be more common at lower counts).

Do you know how to create the correct betting ramp ?

Please email me if you can.

D.

If I have an advantage over the house by 0.29% at the beginning of the game is worth the following:

TC -3 = -1%
TC -2 = -0.5%
TC -1 = 0
TC 0 = +0.5% (+0.29%)
TC +1 = 1%
TC +2 = 1.5%
TC +3 = 2%
TC +4 = 2.5%
....

[niqueclyde]

Those are great rules but even when game is in positive edge u still need big bankroll to get $$$. Wish you luck and I hope that those state run casinos in Balkans will not change those rules soon. If I was on your place I would learn simple count bet min units on negative count and raising bets. Try to have minimum 100 top Bets in bankroll, /That means at least 1000 minimum bets. And pray that standard deviation and variance goes on your positive side))

[ZenMaster_Flash]

You are way off:

E N H C Rule is bad but forbidding soft doubles (and 8's) is even worse.

Six Card Charlie is worth very little.

No, you do not come even close to having an advantage flat-betting.

You do not split Aces [or 11] against a dealer's Ace.

[niqueclyde]

You are dead wrong, i would always trade doubling on soft hands for respliting aces and possibility to draw more then one card on resplitace. U put early surender vs 10 and u have winner.

Six card charlie that pays 2 to one and always win (even vs BJ) is worth litlle less then 0,5% in house ege. U get 6 card charlie every 400 hands on average. That means that you always win one hand in 400. If you flatbet 100$ that means that you win 200$, that means that your EV is 50 cent per hand. And that is enormus.

You are way off:

E N H C Rule is bad but forbidding soft doubles (and 8's) is even worse.

Six Card Charlie is worth very little.

No, you do not come even close to having an advantage flat-betting.

You do not split Aces [or 11] against a dealer's Ace.