Need to turn 6K into 10K, what are my chances?

[Hsiaodi]

Yawn. Bottom line Cray Cray and HCB. Keep believing that you're above it all and discovered. Whole new world.

Look at T3's bell curve. You both believe that you are operating 3 or 4 standard deviation above the human race. When you believe that you can pick the right bet at the right the time without any basis for your decision. You're correct, you should just move on and make your money however way, whenever, you want......

[hardin county boy]

A math lesson on the ball curve:

Tthree,

you have been patient and a gentleman and, after work, i will digest what you sent-thanks. i am brighter than i am appearing but i am no good at taking folks word for stuff--need to work thru it on my own and was handicapped with a shortage of math talent and the math showing, "it won't work" being accessible--on the surface, looks like you might have cured me---thanks, again.

[DSchles]

Something wrong here:

"The standard deviation for flat betting playing basic strategy and the expectation vary by rules of the game you are playing but to give you an example for a good 6 deck S17, DAS, LS game.

For those rules, house edge is 0.33% of original bets.

"Assuming 60 hands/hour.
1 hour of play: expectation is -0.32 units of your total bet with a standard deviation of 14.2%."

Can't be. If you bet 100 hands/hour, you would lose 0.33 units. So, at 60 hands/hour, you would lose roughly 0.2 units/hour.

Don

[Cray Cray]

Is it possible that betting big on winning streaks and small on losing streaks is really just card counting at its best without even actually counting? Because maybe when you're losing a lot, the count is largely against you and the reverse is true when you're winning...

[Norm]

No, it's not possible. It's absurd.

[Cray Cray]

So what do you attribute my four days straight of consistent winning to Norm, luck?

[Norm]

Four days.


These days, were they normal 24 hour days? Could it have been 25 hours? It could've been 30 hours, could've been a week, could've been a month, could've been a year, could've been a hundred years, or it could've been 10 million years!! Then maybe they would have meaning.


(With apologies to John Scopes and Clarence Darrow.)

[Three]

Something wrong here:

"The standard deviation for flat betting playing basic strategy and the expectation vary by rules of the game you are playing but to give you an example for a good 6 deck S17, DAS, LS game.

For those rules, house edge is 0.33% of original bets.

"Assuming 60 hands/hour.
1 hour of play: expectation is -0.32 units of your total bet with a standard deviation of 14.2%."

Can't be. If you bet 100 hands/hour, you would lose 0.33 units. So, at 60 hands/hour, you would lose roughly 0.2 units/hour.

Don

Yes, I got the rules wrong. Vegas strip rules. I assumed 100 hands/hour and the rules fit the expectation but later found it was 60 hands/hour but forgot to change the rules. See first link in errant post.

[hardin county boy]

Yes, I got the rules wrong. Vegas strip rules. I assumed 100 hands/hour and the rules fit the expectation but later found it was 60 hands/hour but forgot to change the rules. See first link in errant post.

i understand 1, 2, 3, and 4 standard deviations and have tried to search/study to understand the 14.2% standard deviation in one hour vs 2.9 % for 24 hours. i intuitively figure that is some math expression of "the longer you play, the more likely to conform to expectation" but could you explain a bit as to exactly what the 14.2 % is referring to? thanks.

[Three]

could you explain a bit as to exactly what the 14.2 % is referring to? thanks.

You are flat betting 1 unit at 60 hands/hour. Your expectation is -.32 units/hour the number of units bet per hour times the hourly SD of .142 (14.2%) is 8.52. The range within 1 SD is -.32 +/- 8.52 or -8.84 to +8.2 as is indicated in the next column of the link below.

[Three]

Here is the link:

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/...g_And_Risk.htm

[hitthat16]

So what do you attribute my four days straight of consistent winning to Norm, luck?

Yep. Luck.

Counters call it mathematical variance. Same thing, different name.

[hardin county boy]

You are flat betting 1 unit at 60 hands/hour. Your expectation is -.32 units/hour the number of units bet per hour times the hourly SD of .142 (14.2%) is 8.52. The range within 1 SD is -.32 +/- 8.52 or -8.84 to +8.2 as is indicated in the next column of the link below.

thanks Tthree---clear, concise, got it, own it.