T count simulation

[moses]

Icarpet bombed my post history. Norm didn't delete anything..

Lol. 12 posts is carpet bombing? Let me know when you get to 5k. You must have a reading comprehension problem. It was my posts he deleted in order to protect you.

No. Don has people doing research for him like right now with Gronbog and Eric (even though Eric didn't work out. In order to set up sims assumptions on averages for various things must be made. The 6 round lag when switching tables was one such example. You must not understand what it is to do collaborative work. I can understand why.

I understand utilizing the tools at my disposal in order to maximize profit, streamline effort, be in the best position to win today, and still be allowed to play tomorrow. To paraphrase Freighter. It's very difficult for a sim to think like a human. Far easier for human to think like a sim.

[Norm]

Tiring.

[Freightman]

To paraphrase Freighter. It's very difficult for a sim to think like a human. Far easier for human to think like a sim.

Very interesting point
From my understanding, among other things, sims look at rounds in their entirety. Sims don't know WHEATHER the count is going to rise or fall. Sims look at various count systems, systems that by their nature are unable to differentiate between, for example, surplus or deficit of intermediates. They're other issues which sims can't account for.

The robotic counter simply applies the bet ramp and index applicable to that exact moment in time - a stick man artist VS a Da Vinci. Sims can be beaten.

[Freightman]

Tiring.

Maybe so, but there is some interesting shit,

[ZenMaster_Flash]

DD Face Up is very common in the midwest and in Las Vegas.

[ericfarmer]

My original proposal was to try to get not only the final results for the T count, which we are very close to having, but also to get Eric to pursue his work in a parallel path to what was being done. But Eric more or less disappeared, and so we are left with those numbers still up in the air. I volunteered to steer the direction of the research, but Eric seems to want to march to his own drummer and to publish everything he finds right away, which leads to 10 times as much heat being shed as light. And so, I'm sorry things didn't work out better, but it wasn't for my lack of trying. I know how this research should be done, but I am not my brother's keeper.

Gronbog has run some new sims for 4.5/6. Tarzan advocates are going to be sorely disappointed.

Don

Hmmm. I would like to understand this better. I have made pretty clear, both in this forum and in email communication, that my only potentially useful contribution is the evaluation of optimal play (more precisely, CDZ-) for any rule variations... with the critical exception being no resplits. That's one critical difference between Gronbog's recent results and those in my earlier analysis re-linked by Three.

I'm definitely interested in continuing to participate in the analysis... but I'm not sure how I can help if we're going to focus on rules allowing resplits, and I'm open to suggestions. Does someone have a faster/more capable algorithm capable of evaluating resplits that I'm not aware of? If not, then if we want to include "perfect" play upper bounds in performance comparisons of various playing strategies, it is currently only feasible to do so without resplits.

On a grumpier note, I'm not sure what is meant by your "volunteering to steer the direction of the research," or my desire to "publish everything I find right away"? To suggest that making results available to this forum "sheds as much heat as light" is, frankly, insulting to the members of this forum, suggesting that the readers here can only be trusted to consume and understand such results once they end up in future editions of your book. (Of course, it's worth noting that you don't actually *need* me; all of my source code is publicly available for anyone, including you, that wants to "steer your own research" however you see fit.)

(For those interested in the technical details of the limitation to no resplits: the algorithm in my CA can efficiently compute exact *expected values* for most rule variations, including resplitting pairs. However, to evaluate things like SCORE we need more than just the expected return, we need the complete distribution of probabilities of each possible outcome of a round. I came up with an algorithm to do this efficiently when no resplits are allowed, but the algorithm is prohibitively slow when resplitting is allowed.)

[Norm]

Very interesting point
From my understanding, among other things, sims look at rounds in their entirety. Sims don't know WHEATHER the count is going to rise or fall. Sims look at various count systems, systems that by their nature are unable to differentiate between, for example, surplus or deficit of intermediates. They're other issues which sims can't account for.

The robotic counter simply applies the bet ramp and index applicable to that exact moment in time - a stick man artist VS a Da Vinci. Sims can be beaten.

Not sure what you mean. I think you underestimate the possibilities with simulation.

[seriousplayer]

When did I ever say that. My focus on shoe games is betting more accurately. I make no attempt to improve over my playing counts performance.

Your posts were more focused on playing strategy decisions than on betting more accurately in shoe games. Improvement to playing helps on a DD game but not as much in a shoe game. It does help but not significant in shoe games. Betting incorrectly in shoe game is more detrimental than making the incorrect play. If the count calls for a 6 unit bet but I put out 4 units than I would lose 2 units.

[moses]

I've played double deck face up. In a location far away from 3's hunting grounds.

LV Bear. Isn't it common knowledge to determine where single deck games are offered broken down 3.2 and 6.5 rules? Wouldn't the same hold true for DD rules with both cards dealt face up? It seems to me you spoke about this in one of your articles. Really? There are a host of DDFU games in Vegas? If so, how's the heat?

[RCJH]

[QUOTE=moses;236441]Simply a falsehood. I think one poster popped up to say he had a DDFU game in Mizzou or somewhere. It was probably Zee. I visited every casino in Northern Nevada. The only thing that existed were the strange looks I got when asking. I have contacts in Vegas that said no - after they finished laughing.

Um, I have played A LOT of DD face up. It's probably 75-80% pitch, though.

[Three]

Your posts were more focused on playing strategy decisions than on betting more accurately in shoe games. Improvement to playing helps on a DD game but not as much in a shoe game.

You must be speaking of the posts about T Count because T Count uses information differently to increase PE so of course my posts demonstrated I understood that. They also indicated that because of that T Count gets separation from Hiopt2/ASC performance in pitch games and at very deep penetration like adding an additional 1/2 deck of pen. My comment referred to how I used similar nonlinear techniques to improve my system. I only go non-linear for betting as there are only shoe games available near me with rare and very sweaty exceptions. I use a traditional linear approach for playing. Tarzan goes nonlinear for playing decisions.

Betting incorrectly in shoe game is more detrimental than making the incorrect play. If the count calls for a 6 unit bet but I put out 4 units than I would lose 2 units.

There are two reasons why betting gets more important in shoe games compared to pitch games. First, because large spreading is tolerated in shoe games but rarely in pitch games. Second, the number of cards remaining to be played is far more on average in shoe games rather than pitch games. So I have no problem with the concept that betting is much more important than playing in a shoe game using a large spread. But your logic is a bit flawed here. First incorrect betting could also save you 2 units. Second an incorrect play could cost you 6 units. But your logic is off to begin with so that is a red herring. You are looking at things in micro when counting works over repetition of the same situations approaching a situational long run average. It is the averages that are affected by mis-betting and misplaying.

[Three]

Um, I have played A LOT of DD face up. It's probably 75-80% pitch, though.

And Moses fails to realize I said I played DD face up over 10 years ago. He acted like it no longer being offered in the casino I found it in meant it wasn't there 10 years ago. Everyone knows casino offerings change regularly. Especially juicy ones. Do I smell a poster that posts with a vendetta in mind rather than to debate ideas. This realization explains why so many mischaracterizations of what was posted occurs. I see this in conversations all the time. The person that wants to argue doesn't listen to what you are saying. The person listens for snippets to argue with that usually are partial thoughts that were never intended to be taken without the rest of the sentence and often means the exact opposite of what was being said. That explains why so many say that Moses often gets the opposite of what was said out of a post. He just reads posts with the intent of finding something to argue against and never gets the thought of the post.

I played DD at a few East Coast casinos in the last 5 years. They are pretty much all gone now. That doesn't mean I didn't play them when they were offered. He continues to bring this up many times like if a game isn't offered today it was never offered. I used to play S17, DAS 3:2 SD pretty much everywhere. It is hard to find anywhere now. That doesn't mean we didn't find them everywhere in the past.

[moses]

[QUOTE=RCJH;236452]

Um, I have played A LOT of DD face up. It's probably 75-80% pitch, though.

What is A LOT? T3 once said blackjack is offered in all 50 states. I found it broken down to actually just 27 states. States east of the Mississippi River only offer 6 and 8 deck shoes. There were 4 tables in Wyoming. 1 casino in Kansas. 2 small cities in Colorado. Ante required in Oklahoma. Indian Casinos up and down the West Coast. Casinos sprinkled throughout the Dakota's and other ass freezing states. I suppose one could drive across Mizzou or live in Meridian,MS which is in between New Orleans and Tunica,MS. New Mexico and Arizona offers some 3 and 4 deck games.

Google research found articles that offer DDFU as a promotion that also comes with high heat in Vegas. My resources said no DDFU on the out skirts with AUFC laugh. So I didn't ask him to check the Strip. El Cortez is a well known sweat shop. That breaks it down a good bit.