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Thread: T count simulation

  1. #222
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    Wong Halves. Perfect Insurance. Wrestle with that one in your sims for awhile T3. Your are trying to reinvent the wheel by making a shoe game into PE game. It's counter productive.

    Of course, estimating is far more accuate than having exact information. Get back on your spaceship. I suppose you are going to say travel costs are less with further distance.
    Last edited by moses; 12-12-2017 at 11:20 AM.

  2. #223
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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    I was sharing a table a while back with Mr. Dumballs Dickhead, hereinafter referred to as DD, no, not that DD. DD displayed no artistic component to his game, blindly playing 25 min, spreading to 2x200 at the drop of true 1.0, and back to 25 with a drop true 0. Actually, he even wasn't that good. The concept of judgement to DD was as foreign as scratching your balls to relieve a good itch.

    The analogy is - screw the sims- they are simply a guide - judgement tells you when to ride a multi unit bet into negative territory, and on and on.

    The point is - I bet I can pick up that 10% with judgement. In the heat of battle, I worry not about 0.1394528%, preferring to concent rate on winning, and of course, a good ball scratch when required.
    Thank you for reinforcing my point.
    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Then I point out we don't make money on a computer and we are not computers so what count is best is an individual personal decision.

  3. #224


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Thank you for reinforcing my point.
    Doth I hear doublespeak - I doth I doth.

  4. #225
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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Wong Halves. Perfect Insurance. Wrestle with that one in your sims for awhile T3.
    Exactly what I said. Any number of a half dozen counts that perform quite close to Hiopt2/ASC.
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Your are trying to reinvent the wheel by making a shoe game into PE game. It's counter productive.
    When did I ever say that. My focus on shoe games is betting more accurately. I make no attempt to improve over my playing counts performance. Also I stated in this thread that T Count doesn't separate as much in shoe games because it focuses on PE. I guess either you read stuff with the sole intent of finding things to argue about or you simply can't understand anything people write. After so many statements in this thread about how T Count's extra edge doesn't manifest itself until deep pen in shoe games you would think you would have got it by now. But you still make argumentative comments that defy what was written in the thread.
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Of course, estimating is for more accuate than having exact information. Get back on your spaceship.
    No. Again you don't seem to understand what was explained quite accurately in detail. Estimating based on extrapolating from actual data is more accurate than guessing without any data to base your guess on. Especially when you consider how assumptions used when extrapolating may affect results. It is really frustrating when you fail to comprehend anything you read and more often than not take the opposite of what was written as what you think was written. So many have circulated this tendency of yours privately. Try reading more carefully and you might be taken more seriously when commenting on posts.

  5. #226
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    I understood Don S. I understand Freighter. I understand Norm, Bosox, and Frank. I could go on and on. You have to tell how to build a watch whenever someone asks what time it is.

    No one reads your entire posts anymore. You are clueless when it comes to pitch. What's played = what's left. Stay within casino tolerance and dont get cute.

    Where didn't you say? I have neither the time nor inclunation to pour back over your 13k plus posts and where Don S put you in your place. Actually, I did it. But Norm deleted because The Refinery goes nuts when old posts are brought back.

    I can find them if Norm wont delete them.
    Last edited by moses; 12-12-2017 at 12:15 PM.

  6. #227


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    I was sharing a table a while back with Mr. Dumballs Dickhead, hereinafter referred to as DD, no, not that DD. DD displayed no artistic component to his game, blindly playing 25 min, spreading to 2x200 at the drop of true 1.0, and back to 25 with a drop true 0. Actually, he even wasn't that good. The concept of judgement to DD was as foreign as scratching your balls to relieve a good itch.

    The analogy is - screw the sims- they are simply a guide - judgement tells you when to ride a multi unit bet into negative territory, and on and on.

    The point is - I bet I can pick up that 10% with judgement. In the heat of battle, I worry not about 0.1394528%, preferring to concent rate on winning, and of course, a good ball scratch when required.

    Was that the only Larger bet that he made (2x200)? If so, i must ask-wouldnt that look less mechanical for camo reasons? Provided you had an infinite BR of couurse.

    Im also curios about your analogy here..Do you yourself, only play by your count and what the sims say to do as a guide?
    http://bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca.cgi

  7. #228


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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Jackson View Post
    Was that the only Larger bet that he made (2x200)? If so, i must ask-wouldnt that look less mechanical for camo reasons? Provided you had an infinite BR of couurse.

    Im also curios about your analogy here..Do you yourself, only play by your count and what the sims say to do as a guide?
    No, 2x200 was true 1.0. True 2.0 was infinitely larger, etc etc.

    As for your inquiry if my play, I'm far more artistic to play by sims, using them as guides. My ramps vary depending on store, cut, rules, heat etc. It would be fair to say that I am consistent in my inconsistency.

  8. #229
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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    You are clueless when it comes to pitch. What's played = what's left. Stay within casino tolerance and dont get cute.
    Isn't that what I have always said. Again, a total failure in reading comprehension.
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    I can find them if Norm wont delete them.
    Everyone knows Norm doesn't delete my posts because I stay within posting guidelines with very rare exceptions.
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    where Don S put you in your place
    I am not perfect and have learned a lot from Don. I have learned the most when he has challenged me. Often the putting in place gets hashed out through private message. A fair amount of the time it gets down to whether or not you agree with the assumptions Don's team made when running the sims. I have not researched to say what my best assumptions would be and just had my assumptions not supported by any records from actual play, so unless I do thorough research I must agree with Don by assuming his assumptions are more valid. His team probably worked hard to make the best assumptions they could based on how the game was played at the time of his research. As we all know conditions are changing so they may very well make different assumptions if the research were to be done today or not. He stated my assumptions were wrong. Since they were not researched assumptions I couldn't defend them and had to agree that his team's assumptions were probably best. I had no problem making that concession. At that point we were in agreement.

  9. #230
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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    1.) Isn't that what I have always said. Again, a total failure in reading comprehension.

    2.) Everyone knows Norm doesn't delete my posts because 2A.) I stay within posting guidelines with very rare exceptions. I am not perfect and have learned a lot from Don. I have learned the most when he has challenged me. Often the putting in place gets hashed out through private message. A fair amount of the time it gets down to whether or not you agree with the assumptions Don's team made when running the sims. I have not researched to say what my best assumptions would be and just had my assumptions not supported by any records from actual play, so unless I do thorough research I must agree with Don by assuming his assumptions are more valid. His team probably worked hard to make the best assumptions they could based on how the game was played at the time of his research. As we all know conditions are changing so they may very well make different assumptions if the research were to be done today or not. He stated my assumptions were wrong. Since they were not researched assumptions I couldn't defend them and had to agree that his team's assumptions were probably best.

    3.) I had no problem making that concession. 3A.) At that point we were in agreement.
    1.) Hell no, that isn't what you've always said. Mr. PP states double deck games are dealt face up. Rare. Very Rare.
    2.) How would anyone know if your posts are deleted or not? 2A.) Where does it state under posting guidelines that bringing up old threads is a huge No. No? It's the only way to reveal your numerous contradictions.
    3.) Case in point 3A.) Perfect Example.

    There are thresholds, advantages, and now "assumptions" (according to you). Quite often assumptions are simple logic and common sense to arrive at an amicable solution. For example, what Don provided earlier. Man, you must be a pain in the rear in church. Do you question everything the pastor says or figure he knows what he's talking about? I figure Pastor Don knows what he is talking about. Therefore, the "extensive" research isn't really necesary.

  10. #231
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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    1.) Hell no, that isn't what you've always said. Mr. PP states double deck games are dealt face up. Rare. Very Rare.
    I said I played a double deck game once that was dealt face up when you said that doesn't exist. Than many others chimed in to state they also played DD games dealt face up.
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    2A.) Where does it state under posting guidelines that bringing up old threads is a huge No. No? It's the only way to reveal your numerous contradictions.
    There is nothing wrong with bringing up old threads. If you got some deleted when you did that it was probably because your intention was simply to be disruptive and cause conflict rather than to shed light on things. Personally I doubt anyone had posts deleted unless the changed what was said in a quote. Come to think of it isn't the poster you stated one that does that?
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    There are thresholds, advantages, and now "assumptions" (according to you).
    Many important thing in Don's book revolves around assumptions in order to do the sims required. If you don't understand that then you don't understand much. You just have to trust that Don's team did a lot of work to make the most accurate assumptions in general. That said assumptions often fail when look at very specific situations. Like Don ran sims for wonging out with and without a 6 round lag to see what is most profitable. Well if you are in a casino with one table open and the next casino is 3 hours away both of these assumptions his sims were based on are wrong and don't apply to your current situation. If the table next to you is about to deal the first round the 6 round lag assumption does't apply because you will not have any lag. But then Don was dealing with coming up with the best average lag. What information you use depends on the situation you face in the casino at the time you make your decision.

    Personally, I don't even look at things in that way which is why we had our differences on this. I am trying to maximize the return for my exposure in the casino. How long I miss is irrelevant when looking at things from that perspective. I want the most rounds in the least amount of time and often play 4 hours a day or less of actual play when on trips. That limits my exposure while at the same time maximizes the number of rounds I get for the same exposure. Exposure is a cost if the casino you are in will back you off. Don didn't factor that into his point of view. So ultimately it wasn't that either of us was wrong. We were just looking at what was optimal from different perspectives. That said I did make some poorly worded comments by not making my perspective clear and also had some mistakes in what I was intentionally saying.
    Last edited by Three; 12-12-2017 at 04:24 PM.

  11. #232


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    I've played double deck face up. In a location far away from 3's hunting grounds.

  12. #233
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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    I said I played a double deck game once that was dealt face up when you said that doesn't exist. Than many others chimed in to state they also played DD games dealt face up.
    Simply a falsehood. I think one poster popped up to say he had a DDFU game in Mizzou or somewhere. It was probably Zee. I visited every casino in Northern Nevada. The only thing that existed were the strange looks I got when asking. I have contacts in Vegas that said no - after they finished laughing.


    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    There is nothing wrong with bringing up old threads. If you got some deleted when you did that it was probably because your intention was simply to be disruptive and cause conflict rather than to shed light on things. Personally I doubt anyone had posts deleted unless the changed what was said in a quote. Come to think of it isn't the poster you stated one that does that?.
    Not according to Norm. Don S had some excellent advice before the mass confusion brought on by the two musketeers. Norm had a great post on sportsbetting that has already served as a reminder and lead to decent profits. Thank you very much. Point is, they are hidden gems in your endless dissertations making yourself and blue ink sound magnanimous. The idea was to acquire old notes in my file that are easily accessible. But holding up a mirror to you was also the purpose...and that's what Norm deleted.


    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Many important thing in Don's book revolves around assumptions in order to do the sims required. If you don't understand that then you don't understand much. You just have to trust that Don's team did a lot of work to make the most accurate assumptions in general..
    So what, you're telling me he's got guys in white coats standing around in some lab somewhere? The #1 main thing I got from Don S is insurance. Talk about being in a position of power at the table. The #2 thing was EOR. I had to practically reach in and pull it out of him because he had no idea where my questions were leading. Needless to say, #1 is perfect and the other is GOLDEN. I figure, like most things in life, it's a result of good old fashion hard work. Sometimes when doing my research I think I'm seeing what he saw.
    Last edited by moses; 12-12-2017 at 04:30 PM.

  13. #234
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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    But holding up a mirror to you was also the purpose...and that's what Norm deleted.
    Icarpet bombed my post history. Norm didn't delete anything.
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    So what, you're telling me he's got guys standing around in some lab?
    No. Don has people doing research for him like right now with Gronbog and Eric (even though Eric didn't work out. In order to set up sims assumptions on averages for various things must be made. The 6 round lag when switching tables was one such example. You must not understand what it is to do collaborative work. I can understand why.

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