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Thread: T count simulation

  1. 12-09-2017, 12:42 AM #170
    Tarzan
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    6 Decks 5/6 S17 DAS
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Play-All 1-8 Tarzan Basic Gronbog 43.70 44.15
    HiOpt II noASC Gronbog 48.36 48.18
    HiOpt II noASC CVData+CVCX 48.36 48.36
    HiOpt II BJA3 Table 9.21 48.50 48.50
    Tarzan Expert Gronbog 50.92 51.42
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10 Gronbog - 52.11
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11 Gronbog - 52.27
    HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 52.59 52.47
    HiOpt II + ASC CVData+CVCX 53.21 53.21

    Play-All 1-10 Tarzan Basic Gronbog 50.38 50.85
    HiOpt II noASC Gronbog 55.10 54.86
    HiOpt II noASC CVData+CVCX 55.08 55.08
    HiOpt II BJA3 Table 9.21 55.96 55.96
    Tarzan Expert Gronbog 58.49 59.01
    HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 59.76 59.63
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10 Gronbog - 59.74
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11 Gronbog - 59.92
    HiOpt II + ASC CVData+CVCX 60.53 60.53

    Play-All 1-12 Tarzan Basic Gronbog 55.39 55.88
    HiOpt II noASC Gronbog 60.12 59.86
    HiOpt II noASC CVData+CVCX 60.07 60.07
    HiOpt II BJA3 Table 9.21 61.61 61.61
    Tarzan Expert Gronbog 64.19 64.71
    HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 65.07 64.94
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10 Gronbog - 65.46
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11 Gronbog - 65.66
    HiOpt II + ASC CVData+CVCX 65.96 65.96

    Back-Count 1-1 Tarzan Basic Gronbog 67.55 68.10
    HiOpt II noASC Gronbog 70.41 70.19
    HiOpt II noASC CVData+CVCX 70.22 70.22
    HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 75.53 75.42
    HiOpt II BJA3 Table 9.21 76.00 76.00
    HiOpt II + ASC CVData+CVCX 76.68 76.68
    Tarzan Expert Gronbog 77.75 78.14
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10 Gronbog - 78.75
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11 Gronbog - 79.02

    Back-Count 1-2 Tarzan Basic Gronbog 81.08 81.62
    HiOpt II noASC Gronbog 84.51 84.20
    HiOpt II noASC CVData+CVCX 84.28 84.28
    HiOpt II BJA3 Table 9.21 89.65 89.65
    HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 90.96 90.82
    HiOpt II + ASC CVData+CVCX 92.44 92.44
    Tarzan Expert Gronbog 92.66 93.14
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10 Gronbog - 93.99
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11 Gronbog - 94.25

    Back-Count 1-4 Tarzan Basic Gronbog 88.62 89.22
    HiOpt II noASC Gronbog 91.75 91.41
    HiOpt II noASC CVData+CVCX 91.53 91.53
    HiOpt II BJA3 Table 9.21 97.03 97.03
    HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 98.89 98.80
    HiOpt II + ASC CVData+CVCX 100.60 100.60
    Tarzan Expert Gronbog 101.64 102.00
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10 Gronbog - 102.74
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11 Gronbog - 103.11

    Back-Count 1-8 Tarzan Basic Gronbog 90.53 91.68
    HiOpt II noASC Gronbog 94.86 94.54
    HiOpt II noASC CVData+CVCX 94.57 94.57
    HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 102.18 102.08
    HiOpt II BJA3 Table 9.21 102.45 102.45
    HiOpt II + ASC CVData+CVCX 103.94 103.94
    Tarzan Expert Gronbog 104.46 104.87
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10 Gronbog - 105.63
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11 Gronbog - 106.02

    Back-Count 1-12 Tarzan Basic Gronbog 91.99 92.55
    HiOpt II noASC CVData+CVCX 94.43 94.43
    HiOpt II noASC Gronbog 94.74 95.31
    HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 103.03 102.94
    HiOpt II BJA3 Table 9.21 102.97 102.97
    HiOpt II + ASC CVData+CVCX 104.94 104.94
    Tarzan Expert Gronbog 105.81 106.20
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10 Gronbog - 106.94
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11 Gronbog - 107.34

    Unrestricted Tarzan Basic Gronbog 92.80 93.35
    HiOpt II noASC Gronbog 96.00 95.67
    HiOpt II noASC CVData+CVCX 95.69 95.69
    HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 103.34 103.25
    HiOpt II + ASC CVData+CVCX 105.29 105.29
    Tarzan Expert Gronbog 106.39 106.74
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10 Gronbog - 107.46
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11 Gronbog - 107.87


    2 Decks 62/104 S17 DAS
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Play-All 1-4 HiOpt II BJA3 Table 9.19 36.58 36.58 (I18 only)
    HiOpt II noASC CVData+CVCX 41.58 41.58
    HiOpt II noASC Gronbog 41.64 41.60
    Basic Tarzan Gronbog 43.98 45.23
    HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 46.15 46.05
    HiOpt II + ASC CVData+CVCX 46.46 46.46
    Tarzan Expert Gronbog 47.63 48.89
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10 Gronbog - 49.91
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11 Gronbog - 50.01

    Play-All 1-6 HiOpt II BJA3 Table 9.19 53.19 53.19 (I18 only)
    HiOpt II noASC CVData+CVCX 57.09 57.09
    HiOpt II noASC Gronbog 57.17 57.10
    Basic Tarzan Gronbog 59.96 61.30
    HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 63.21 63.09
    HiOpt II + ASC CVData+CVCX 63.78 63.78
    Tarzan Expert Gronbog 64.95 66.33
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10 Gronbog - 67.60
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11 Gronbog - 67.69

    Play-All 1-8 HiOpt II BJA3 Table 9.19 63.63 63.63 (I18 only)
    HiOpt II noASC Gronbog 66.72 66.62
    HiOpt II noASC CVData+CVCX 66.65 66.65
    Basic Tarzan Gronbog 69.81 71.17
    HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 73.70 73.57
    HiOpt II + ASC CVData+CVCX 74.45 74.45
    Tarzan Expert Gronbog 75.58 76.98
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10 Gronbog - 78.38
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11 Gronbog - 78.46
  2. 12-09-2017, 02:28 AM #171
    BJPloppy
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    Thanks for posting. I know you must be happy to get this info out there.
    I have a couple of questions off the top of my head (I am sure more will come later as I think about what I am seeing).

    (1) Why are Gronbog’s HO2 numbers consistently lower than CVCX? Does he not use some strategy deviations that CVCX takes into account?

    (2) What do the phrases “Expert+KC=0.10 and Expert+KC=0.11” mean?

    (3) Is there more info coming? I noticed that for the double deck, you only have info on the IL18. I would think that hampers the SCORE for both HO2 and your count.

    (4) I don't play double deck, but I have been noticing the games as I am on my scouting trips. I usually see H17 games. Are there many 2D S17 games?

    (5) Does "unrestricted" mean that you are back counting and wonging out with impunity?

    As I said, these questions are just off the top of my head with many more to follow.

    Thanks to you and Gronbog for the work you have put into this project!
    Last edited by BJPloppy; 12-09-2017 at 02:48 AM.
  3. 12-09-2017, 07:33 AM #172
    seriousplayer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tarzan View Post
    6 Decks 5/6 S17 DAS
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Play-All 1-8 Tarzan Basic Gronbog 43.70 44.15
    HiOpt II noASC Gronbog 48.36 48.18
    HiOpt II noASC CVData+CVCX 48.36 48.36
    HiOpt II BJA3 Table 9.21 48.50 48.50
    Tarzan Expert Gronbog 50.92 51.42
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10 Gronbog - 52.11
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11 Gronbog - 52.27
    HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 52.59 52.47
    HiOpt II + ASC CVData+CVCX 53.21 53.21

    Play-All 1-10 Tarzan Basic Gronbog 50.38 50.85
    HiOpt II noASC Gronbog 55.10 54.86
    HiOpt II noASC CVData+CVCX 55.08 55.08
    HiOpt II BJA3 Table 9.21 55.96 55.96
    Tarzan Expert Gronbog 58.49 59.01
    HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 59.76 59.63
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10 Gronbog - 59.74
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11 Gronbog - 59.92
    HiOpt II + ASC CVData+CVCX 60.53 60.53

    Play-All 1-12 Tarzan Basic Gronbog 55.39 55.88
    HiOpt II noASC Gronbog 60.12 59.86
    HiOpt II noASC CVData+CVCX 60.07 60.07
    HiOpt II BJA3 Table 9.21 61.61 61.61
    Tarzan Expert Gronbog 64.19 64.71
    HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 65.07 64.94
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10 Gronbog - 65.46
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11 Gronbog - 65.66
    HiOpt II + ASC CVData+CVCX 65.96 65.96

    Back-Count 1-1 Tarzan Basic Gronbog 67.55 68.10
    HiOpt II noASC Gronbog 70.41 70.19
    HiOpt II noASC CVData+CVCX 70.22 70.22
    HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 75.53 75.42
    HiOpt II BJA3 Table 9.21 76.00 76.00
    HiOpt II + ASC CVData+CVCX 76.68 76.68
    Tarzan Expert Gronbog 77.75 78.14
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10 Gronbog - 78.75
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11 Gronbog - 79.02

    Back-Count 1-2 Tarzan Basic Gronbog 81.08 81.62
    HiOpt II noASC Gronbog 84.51 84.20
    HiOpt II noASC CVData+CVCX 84.28 84.28
    HiOpt II BJA3 Table 9.21 89.65 89.65
    HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 90.96 90.82
    HiOpt II + ASC CVData+CVCX 92.44 92.44
    Tarzan Expert Gronbog 92.66 93.14
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10 Gronbog - 93.99
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11 Gronbog - 94.25

    Back-Count 1-4 Tarzan Basic Gronbog 88.62 89.22
    HiOpt II noASC Gronbog 91.75 91.41
    HiOpt II noASC CVData+CVCX 91.53 91.53
    HiOpt II BJA3 Table 9.21 97.03 97.03
    HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 98.89 98.80
    HiOpt II + ASC CVData+CVCX 100.60 100.60
    Tarzan Expert Gronbog 101.64 102.00
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10 Gronbog - 102.74
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11 Gronbog - 103.11

    Back-Count 1-8 Tarzan Basic Gronbog 90.53 91.68
    HiOpt II noASC Gronbog 94.86 94.54
    HiOpt II noASC CVData+CVCX 94.57 94.57
    HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 102.18 102.08
    HiOpt II BJA3 Table 9.21 102.45 102.45
    HiOpt II + ASC CVData+CVCX 103.94 103.94
    Tarzan Expert Gronbog 104.46 104.87
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10 Gronbog - 105.63
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11 Gronbog - 106.02

    Back-Count 1-12 Tarzan Basic Gronbog 91.99 92.55
    HiOpt II noASC CVData+CVCX 94.43 94.43
    HiOpt II noASC Gronbog 94.74 95.31
    HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 103.03 102.94
    HiOpt II BJA3 Table 9.21 102.97 102.97
    HiOpt II + ASC CVData+CVCX 104.94 104.94
    Tarzan Expert Gronbog 105.81 106.20
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10 Gronbog - 106.94
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11 Gronbog - 107.34

    Unrestricted Tarzan Basic Gronbog 92.80 93.35
    HiOpt II noASC Gronbog 96.00 95.67
    HiOpt II noASC CVData+CVCX 95.69 95.69
    HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 103.34 103.25
    HiOpt II + ASC CVData+CVCX 105.29 105.29
    Tarzan Expert Gronbog 106.39 106.74
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10 Gronbog - 107.46
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11 Gronbog - 107.87


    2 Decks 62/104 S17 DAS
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Play-All 1-4 HiOpt II BJA3 Table 9.19 36.58 36.58 (I18 only)
    HiOpt II noASC CVData+CVCX 41.58 41.58
    HiOpt II noASC Gronbog 41.64 41.60
    Basic Tarzan Gronbog 43.98 45.23
    HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 46.15 46.05
    HiOpt II + ASC CVData+CVCX 46.46 46.46
    Tarzan Expert Gronbog 47.63 48.89
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10 Gronbog - 49.91
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11 Gronbog - 50.01

    Play-All 1-6 HiOpt II BJA3 Table 9.19 53.19 53.19 (I18 only)
    HiOpt II noASC CVData+CVCX 57.09 57.09
    HiOpt II noASC Gronbog 57.17 57.10
    Basic Tarzan Gronbog 59.96 61.30
    HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 63.21 63.09
    HiOpt II + ASC CVData+CVCX 63.78 63.78
    Tarzan Expert Gronbog 64.95 66.33
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10 Gronbog - 67.60
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11 Gronbog - 67.69

    Play-All 1-8 HiOpt II BJA3 Table 9.19 63.63 63.63 (I18 only)
    HiOpt II noASC Gronbog 66.72 66.62
    HiOpt II noASC CVData+CVCX 66.65 66.65
    Basic Tarzan Gronbog 69.81 71.17
    HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 73.70 73.57
    HiOpt II + ASC CVData+CVCX 74.45 74.45
    Tarzan Expert Gronbog 75.58 76.98
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10 Gronbog - 78.38
    Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11 Gronbog - 78.46
    How far is the Tarzan Expert from perfect computer play?
  4. 12-09-2017, 07:50 AM #173
    Gronbog
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    The 6 deck results above were with late surrender. Tarzan also left out the column headers and a bit of explanation. Let me try to clarify.


    • The Previous SCORE was from sims run by me in Feb/March of this year. Since then adjustments were made to the system and the Expert+KC (Expert + Key Cards) level was implemented.
    • The Latest SCORE was from sims re-run over the past few weeks
    • You can see that the Tarzan system SCOREs all improved due to the adjustments
    • The CVData+CVCX sims were not re-run
    • The HiOpt II sims were run with full indices as defined by CVData


    Sims for more rule sets and conditions are still underway.

    Code:
    6 decks 5/6 S17 DAS SP3 LS
--------------------------------------------
                                                         Previous   Latest
Scenario        System                  Source           SCORE      SCORE
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Play-All 1-8    Tarzan Basic            Gronbog          43.70      44.15
                HiOpt II noASC          Gronbog          48.36      48.18
                HiOpt II noASC          CVData+CVCX      48.36      48.36
                HiOpt II                BJA3 Table 9.21  48.50      48.50
                Tarzan Expert           Gronbog          50.92      51.42
                Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10   Gronbog            -        52.11
                Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11   Gronbog            -        52.27
                HiOpt II + ASC          Gronbog          52.59      52.47
                HiOpt II + ASC          CVData+CVCX      53.21      53.21

Play-All 1-10   Tarzan Basic            Gronbog          50.38      50.85
                HiOpt II noASC          Gronbog          55.10      54.86
                HiOpt II noASC          CVData+CVCX      55.08      55.08
                HiOpt II                BJA3 Table 9.21  55.96      55.96
                Tarzan Expert           Gronbog          58.49      59.01
                HiOpt II + ASC          Gronbog          59.76      59.63
                Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10   Gronbog            -        59.74
                Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11   Gronbog            -        59.92
                HiOpt II + ASC          CVData+CVCX      60.53      60.53

Play-All 1-12   Tarzan Basic            Gronbog          55.39      55.88
                HiOpt II noASC          Gronbog          60.12      59.86
                HiOpt II noASC          CVData+CVCX      60.07      60.07
                HiOpt II                BJA3 Table 9.21  61.61      61.61
                Tarzan Expert           Gronbog          64.19      64.71
                HiOpt II + ASC          Gronbog          65.07      64.94
                Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10   Gronbog            -        65.46
                Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11   Gronbog            -        65.66
                HiOpt II + ASC          CVData+CVCX      65.96      65.96

Back-Count 1-1  Tarzan Basic            Gronbog          67.55      68.10
                HiOpt II noASC          Gronbog          70.41      70.19
                HiOpt II noASC          CVData+CVCX      70.22      70.22
                HiOpt II + ASC          Gronbog          75.53      75.42
                HiOpt II                BJA3 Table 9.21  76.00      76.00
                HiOpt II + ASC          CVData+CVCX      76.68      76.68
                Tarzan Expert           Gronbog          77.75      78.14
                Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10   Gronbog            -        78.75
                Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11   Gronbog            -        79.02

Back-Count 1-2  Tarzan Basic            Gronbog          81.08      81.62
                HiOpt II noASC          Gronbog          84.51      84.20
                HiOpt II noASC          CVData+CVCX      84.28      84.28
                HiOpt II                BJA3 Table 9.21  89.65      89.65
                HiOpt II + ASC          Gronbog          90.96      90.82
                HiOpt II + ASC          CVData+CVCX      92.44      92.44
                Tarzan Expert           Gronbog          92.66      93.14
                Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10   Gronbog            -        93.99
                Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11   Gronbog            -        94.25

Back-Count 1-4  Tarzan Basic            Gronbog          88.62      89.22
                HiOpt II noASC          Gronbog          91.75      91.41
                HiOpt II noASC          CVData+CVCX      91.53      91.53
                HiOpt II                BJA3 Table 9.21  97.03      97.03
                HiOpt II + ASC          Gronbog          98.89      98.80
                HiOpt II + ASC          CVData+CVCX     100.60     100.60
                Tarzan Expert           Gronbog         101.64     102.00
                Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10   Gronbog            -       102.74
                Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11   Gronbog            -       103.11

Back-Count 1-8  Tarzan Basic            Gronbog          90.53      91.68
                HiOpt II noASC          Gronbog          94.86      94.54
                HiOpt II noASC          CVData+CVCX      94.57      94.57
                HiOpt II + ASC          Gronbog         102.18     102.08
                HiOpt II                BJA3 Table 9.21 102.45     102.45
                HiOpt II + ASC          CVData+CVCX     103.94     103.94
                Tarzan Expert           Gronbog         104.46     104.87
                Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10   Gronbog            -       105.63
                Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11   Gronbog            -       106.02

Back-Count 1-12 Tarzan Basic            Gronbog          91.99      92.55
                HiOpt II noASC          CVData+CVCX      94.43      94.43
                HiOpt II noASC          Gronbog          95.63      95.31
                HiOpt II + ASC          Gronbog         103.03     102.94
                HiOpt II                BJA3 Table 9.21 102.97     102.97
                HiOpt II + ASC          CVData+CVCX     104.94     104.94
                Tarzan Expert           Gronbog         105.81     106.20
                Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10   Gronbog            -       106.94
                Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11   Gronbog            -       107.34

Unrestricted    Tarzan Basic            Gronbog          92.80      93.35
                HiOpt II noASC          Gronbog          96.00      95.67
                HiOpt II noASC          CVData+CVCX      95.69      95.69
                HiOpt II + ASC          Gronbog         103.34     103.25
                HiOpt II + ASC          CVData+CVCX     105.29     105.29
                Tarzan Expert           Gronbog         106.39     106.74
                Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10   Gronbog            -       107.46
                Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11   Gronbog            -       107.87

2 decks 62/104 S17 DAS
-------------------------------
                                                         Previous  Latest
Scenario        System                  Source           SCORE     SCORE    Notes
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Play-All 1-4    HiOpt II                BJA3 Table 9.19  36.58      36.58   (I18 only)
                HiOpt II noASC          CVData+CVCX      41.58      41.58
                HiOpt II noASC          Gronbog          41.64      41.60
                Basic Tarzan            Gronbog          43.98      45.23
                HiOpt II + ASC          Gronbog          46.15      46.05
                HiOpt II + ASC          CVData+CVCX      46.46      46.46
                Tarzan Expert           Gronbog          47.63      48.89
                Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10   Gronbog            -        49.91
                Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11   Gronbog            -        50.01


Play-All 1-6    HiOpt II                BJA3 Table 9.19  53.19      53.19   (I18 only)
                HiOpt II noASC          CVData+CVCX      57.09      57.09
                HiOpt II noASC          Gronbog          57.17      57.10
                Basic Tarzan            Gronbog          59.96      61.30
                HiOpt II + ASC          Gronbog          63.21      63.09
                HiOpt II + ASC          CVData+CVCX      63.78      63.78
                Tarzan Expert           Gronbog          64.95      66.33
                Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10   Gronbog            -        67.60
                Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11   Gronbog            -        67.69

Play-All 1-8    HiOpt II                BJA3 Table 9.19  63.63      63.63   (I18 only)
                HiOpt II noASC          Gronbog          66.72      66.62
                HiOpt II noASC          CVData+CVCX      66.65      66.65
                Basic Tarzan            Gronbog          69.81      71.17
                HiOpt II + ASC          Gronbog          73.70      73.57
                HiOpt II + ASC          CVData+CVCX      74.45      74.45
                Tarzan Expert           Gronbog          75.58      76.98
                Tarzan Expert+KC=0.10   Gronbog            -        78.38
                Tarzan Expert+KC=0.11   Gronbog            -        78.46
  5. 12-09-2017, 07:54 AM #174
    ZenMaster_Flash
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    0 out of 3 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    The T-Count is "all about" fine-tuning Playing Efficiency.

    When I play BJ I use Hi-Opt II BUT I employ some
    important Index Adjustments based upon the Aces.

    Can one safely assume that    Gronbog, CVCX did not
    do that? If I am correct in assuming same, then (my)
    Hi-Opt II will have slightly superior Playing Efficiency;
    especially for DD where I also use Index Adjustments
    for Surplus / Deficit Sevens (7's), as well as Aces,
    because 7's are often "Key Cards" especially with the
    common matchups of Player 'stiffs' vs. Dealer 8's and 9's.

    For any beginners who are unfamiliar with the "Key Card"
    concept, if a rank is either in Deficit or Surplus over random
    expectation and effects BOTH the player and the dealer in
    ways that benefit the player, that rank is deemed a "Key Card."

    The best example that I can think of is the 7's when you have a
    hand of 14 and are facing a dealer 8 or 9.

    If there are abundant 7's Your chance of drawing to 21 is enhanced
    while simultaneously the Dealer's chances of being stiff and busting
    are likewise increased. Both benefit the player.

    Would you hit a hard 14 vs. a dealer Face Card in a DD game if 6 of
    the 8 sevens (7's) have been seen, at 25% penetration? The correct
    play is to stand ~ because you probably will not hit twice/thrice to a
    21 and the dealer, you KNOW, will not being forced to hit a 16.
    Last edited by ZenMaster_Flash; 12-09-2017 at 08:09 AM.
  6. 12-09-2017, 08:03 AM #175
    seriousplayer
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    The T-Count is "all about" fine-tuning Playing Efficiency.

    When I play BJ I use Hi-Opt II BUT I employ some
    important Index Adjustments based upon the Aces.

    Can one safely assume that     Gronbog, CVCX did not
    do that? If I am correct in assuming same, then (my)
    Hi-Opt II will have slightly superior Playing Efficiency;
    especially for DD where I also use Index Adjustments
    for Surplus / Deficit Sevens (7's), as well as Aces.
    Why are you doubting Gronbog?? You have to face the facts sometime. When I told you that Halves outperform Hi-OPT with side count aces in an eight deck blackjack game you didn't want to admit it that is not good. Even though I show you the simulations to prove it.
  7. 12-09-2017, 08:12 AM #176
    ZenMaster_Flash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gronbog View Post
    "The HiOpt II sims were run with full indices as defined by CVData."
    So ... the P.E. of Hi-Opt II did not deploy index adjustments Re: Aces.
  8. 12-09-2017, 08:17 AM #177
    ZenMaster_Flash
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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    When I told you that Halves outperform Hi-OPT with side count aces in an eight deck blackjack game you didn't want to admit it that is not good. Even though I show you the simulations to prove it.
    This is an absurdity:

    Finding a single situation, where you enhance Halves,
    and get a razor-thin advantage over Hi-Opt II means
    nothing because it is no longer Halves. Obviously not!

    Note: Halves is a Level 3 Count, not a Level 2 Count.
  9. 12-09-2017, 09:11 AM #178
    moses
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    Sometimes the answers are very simple. But too many analysts create a huge clusterfuck...and money is the reason.
  10. 12-09-2017, 12:34 PM #179
    Gronbog
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    Quote Originally Posted by BJPloppy View Post
    (1) Why are Gronbog’s HO2 numbers consistently lower than CVCX? Does he not use some strategy deviations that CVCX takes into account?
    This is something that we noticed with the second set of sims. You may also notice that all of my HiOpt II SCORES are lower the second time around than the first time. Now, it's normal for some variation in the results from sim to sim of the same game, but it is interesting that my SCOREs for HiOpt II were all uniformly lower the second time. I am looking into this. However, the differences were not enough to affect the overall rankings in any significant way.

    Quote Originally Posted by BJPloppy View Post
    2) What do the phrases “Expert+KC=0.10 and Expert+KC=0.11” mean?
    This won't mean much unless you know how the key card adjustments are applied, but there is a global scaling factor applied. We weren't sure what the optimal factor would be, so we ran sims with different factors until we found it. The optimal factor for these games ended up being 11%. I also showed the results for 10% since that would be more practical to apply at the table.

    Quote Originally Posted by BJPloppy View Post
    (3) Is there more info coming? I noticed that for the double deck, you only have info on the IL18. I would think that hampers the SCORE for both HO2 and your count.
    Yes, there are sims for more games and conditions underway. Those I18 notations apply to those individual lines of the results only. Those results were taken from BJA3 and I needed to note that they were I18 only because the SCOREs were much lower then the other ones for the same games and conditions.

    All other HiOpt II results were for full indices.

    Quote Originally Posted by BJPloppy View Post
    (4) I don't play double deck, but I have been noticing the games as I am on my scouting trips. I usually see H17 games. Are there many 2D S17 games?
    Probably not. As I said, stay tuned.

    Quote Originally Posted by BJPloppy View Post
    (5) Does "unrestricted" mean that you are back counting and wonging out with impunity?
    Yes.
  11. 12-09-2017, 12:36 PM #180
    Gronbog
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    When I play BJ I use Hi-Opt II BUT I employ some
    important Index Adjustments based upon the Aces.

    Can one safely assume thatGronbog, CVCX did not
    do that?
    The HiOpt II results from me and from CVData+CVCX were from sims run by me with full indices, as defined by CVData, but no playing adjustments due to side counting of Aces.
  12. 12-09-2017, 01:00 PM #181
    Gronbog
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    Some comments on my HiOpt II results vs CVData+CVCX.

    I spent a lot of time trying to reproduce results from CVData and CVCX for HiOpt II noASC before releasing any results. This was for the purpose of gaining some kind of confidence that my results for the Tarzan system would be credible. The software framework for doing the sims is the same for all systems. If I could reproduce some CV results, then we could have some confidence in the software framework as a whole.

    Now, minor differences in configuration and implementation choices can make a difference in the final SCORE. At deep penetration levels, like 5/6, even increasing or decreasing the penetration by a single card makes a big difference. So it's not surprising that a combination of many subtleties has the same effect. For example, it turns out that I could not just use CVCX because it assumes the other players play "Average Player Strategy", where SCORE calls for them to use correct Basic Strategy. Something as subtle as this makes a difference. I had to use CVData to gain complete control of these kinds of details. There are also internal implementation details in the software that cannot be seen or configured that can make a difference.

    Norm was very helpful, but couldn't remember every single detail of every choice that was made both within the internals of his software or in the configuration of the sims he ran for BJA3 and for CVCX, so I had to make educated guesses along with a lot of trial and error. This effort took a long time (several months) but finally my true count frequencies, EVs and standard deviations matched those of CVData+CVCX to within 2 decimal places. There were still difference in the final SCORE by as much as 0.3.

    For HiOpt II +ASC, the number of choices for how to estimate the surplus/deficit aces was numerous and I was never able to exactly duplicate the results from CVData+CVCX. I included my results for reference. We (Tarzan, Don and I) finally decided that it would be adequate to show results from multiple sources in order to provide the proper perspective.

    I hope this brings some clarity to the issue of the different results for HiOpt II from different sources. For what it's worth, for the noASC variant, my latest results are very close the the CV results in most cases. In the end, the differences are not enough to affect the overall ranking of the systems.
  13. 12-09-2017, 01:33 PM #182
    ZenMaster_Flash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gronbog View Post
    The HiOpt II results from me and from CVData+CVCX were from sims run by me with full
    indices, as defined by CVData, but no playing adjustments due to side counting of Aces.
    Since the T-Count includes the Ace Density for playing decisions,
    how can an accurate c-Score comparison with Hi-Opt II be made?
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