T count simulation

[Jack Jackson]

Tarzan. Here is how a column realignment will elimate the need for all the various side counts. 2-4s, 5-7s, 89s, tens, Aces.

The EoRs for the 2-4s and 5-7s combined are nearly exact. Plus you've eliminated the need to side count the 6 and split the 23s and 45s.

The primary reason for splitting the 69s column is to gain more on 14. Half the cards will improve your position and half will break your hand. You've still accomplished this because your rotation will still reflect the 2-7s vs 8-10s. Except now you don't have to split the column in half. Plus you have the 5-7s in a nifty little package that will take your 14 to 19,20, or 21.

The 8 and 9 EoRs are similar and the combined total is exactly half the number of the 10s. Now you don't have to side count the 9.

So your brain is actually doing less without now only the Ace side count. The strength in BC will still come from your Ace side count because you can give it any tag value without effecting the balance to the other columns. For me, I'm counting all the cards and columnizing them into a what's played and what's left basis. So it's 5th grade math in terms of the relation to how each column is compared to another.

For you, reducing each column to zero will be more of an issue. But it can still be done because each column is still divisible by 4 and 2.

The reason Hi Opt II reamains close from a sim standpoint is because it's PE power comes from the tags assigned to the 2-7s. Also,the Ace side count which you are already doing. Now the Tarzan count is also considering the 89's while Hi Opt II only can do it from a deck estimation standpoint.

Your middle column for the pesky matchup on 13 will now be 5-9s vs 10s. For equal balance, I do 5-9s vs 10-As. On 12, you have a nice package of 89s to get to 20,21.

So you are still only side counting the Ace and getting max value out of your columns with less work on the brain.

If one wanted to, they could always side-count 6,7,8,9 vs X with Ho2 and create two more counts with the side-count.11222211-3 and 112200-1-1-1...Just ADD when your Primary Count is - and Subtract when its + to get the 6 point count..

[Freightman]

You inferred something that was not implied.
I was not criticizing you or implying anything.

Are you saying he was endorsing the non existent?

[Tarzan]

Don, first off, you were the one to make an argument based on something that can't happen in actual play. You know that it makes no difference whether your cards are revealed first card first, second card first or simultaneously but you try to make an argument to the contrary

Don brings up an interesting hypothetical situation and the math behind it, so the thing to do is claim the scenario can't exist so fuck it? First off, what of the appreciation for him sharing his mathematical knowledge in analyzing a situation, but OOPS! That actual scenario does in fact exist, first card knowledge... the right scenario, the right dealer, nothing I'll explain on a public board but I'll gladly describe it to you sometime. I have first carding and next carding tables buried someplace, I'd have to dig them out. I can't recall where I transcribed them from, probably "Beyond Counting". It's a situation I encountered years back that gave me one of those "Oh holy fuck!" moments at the table though, in which I trained to look for and deal with the situation accordingly thereafter. Yes, first card knowledge is a big deal and I don't know why you are disputing it, incorrect, and stating the situation is impossible to occur, also incorrect. Slow down and eat a snickers bar, my friend, cut back on the caffeine, something.

[moses]

Don's write up was thought provoking. He took my brain to sports betting which could be more actual than hypothetical. General speaking, people bet on sheer emotion. Then they drive themselves crazy by watching the result unfold. Tantamount to checking your home value everyday or calling to check on your stock portfolio every hour.

As a value investor, there is no emotion whatsoever. It's either a good deal or it isn't. I go back to the Raiders-Chiefs night game ealier this year. One could have bought the Raiders at plus 3.5 for pennies on the dollars thoughout most of the game. And then, near the end you could have picked off some KC money very cheap. I'm half joking. But people are quick to tear up a $100 ticket when the game appears to be a loser. Imagine the rate of return if you could give them $5 bucks. lol

[Jack Jackson]

Jack. Can you really peform this in live play? The sim can do all sorts of variations. But what good is it if you can't perform it at the table?

I can run a sim for two counts that will offer 996 BC 680 PE and 1000 IC. But I can't perfom it at the table.

Honestly, Nah i doubt it! However, because Ho2 counts the 6 and 7 at +1 each and ignores 8 and 9 it makes the secondary easy to keep track of-esp. if you start the secondary at 0/10..The hard part is side-counting the Aces as well..The Ace is used for betting purposes only-of course..While the Secondarys are used for particular hands..As you can see one could be used for ins. purposes while the 6 point count is used for 16s for example..Anyway, its probably best i dont go anymore into it..Im sure you know what i mean..

112200-1-1-1
11221100-2(ho2)
11222211-3

[Three]

Out of fairness I think you should mention pitfalls you will encounter. Custom counts are great for heads up play, and possibly Spanish version of 21, where unusual plays take place regularly. Although, when playing regular bj with another player, or a few others, and you are showing inconsistent play, and rather infrequent unusual moves, you often quickly become the reason "unjustified or not" why others are losing, getting angry, vociferous, and changing tables. You are likely thinking wonderful just what I wanted anyway. The last thing the pit wants is unhappy players, especially regulars, and if all the complaining is directed at you, you have become a problem, that may have started on some previous trip, that will be dealt with.

My perspective is the blamers blame someone. If it isn't you it's the dealer. Casino personnel doesn't like blamers at their table or playing in their pit because, for most of them, it makes their job quite unpleasant. They actually do care what table the morons play at. As long as it isn't their table or in their pit they are happy. You act like the casino employees care more about the casino's bottom line then their own personal sanity. That just isn't the way people think. Now if they got the money they might think differently. Like a good tipper or if the floor got some kind of profit sharing. Most share tips so it doesn't matter to them where the tipper plays.

The last thing the pit wants is unhappy players, especially regulars

And the complainers and negative nellies make everyone miserable, players and employees alike.

a problem, that may have started on some previous trip, that will be dealt with.

What I see, when action is taken, is security escorting the complainer out while the suit say something like good players won't have to put up with that on my shift. I have seen it happen many times when people give me crap and several times when they give others crap.

Ultimately, they will refuse your action sooner rather than later.

There is a lifetime win backoff level but that varies by the player. Some get it very quickly while others, at the same casino, win many times that amount before the axe drops. I don't think the discrepancy is arbitrary.

On post number 89:
My initial post was poorly worded. What I meant when I wrote it was getting a T as your first card gives you no information you can use to your advantage. I view the game as going from decision point to decision point. All actions in between should be viewed as happening simultaneously as to do otherwise creates fallacious thought. With that said I have and continue to agree with everything you said. Of course you are better off getting a T or A as a first card than a 2-9. But the information is useless since your next action doesn't occur until after the total matchup is revealed. From that perspective there is no difference between getting a T or A as your second card than as your first card. Each are just the other half of the 2 card hand you make a decision on. The value of the matchup is determined by both cards and the dealer's up-card. Any other view deviates from the given that the game must be viewed as decision point to decision point when it comes to the value of information. That is why to make the first card info valuable, without advanced knowledge of it, everyone invented a way to make a decision right after the first card but before any other cards are dealt. But that isn't the way the game is played. You decide what to bet and your next decision is how to play your 2 card matchup against the dealer's up-card.

In case you can't understand the subtleties of what I am saying I agree that a first card T or ace is better than any other first card but the information has no value despite the theoretical value of the information if you could act on it. Like increasing your bet because of the information. Without the ability to use the information, the knowledge that it is a better situation has no additional value to you as it would if you could act on the knowledge of a theoretical advantage. You should view that game as everything between decisions happening at once. Otherwise you will worry about every card that falls altering your chances. While this is true your game is you make a bet and when it is time for your next decision, playing your hand, you act on all the information you now have. You don't care about how you came to hold that total. Having a total of 12, 13, 14 ..., BJ, you don't care what order the cards fell. All that matters is the current TC and the dealers up-card. What your first card was has no value whatsoever when it comes to making your decision. Information that is useless to you has no value.

[Three]

You're right. I actually wanted to think about this, because, as it turns out, it's more of an intriguing problem than you may have imagined at first. And when I'm through explaining, it will fun to see the response. First, let's remind everyone of the problem:

"Suppose you have a $100 bet out. You get a 6 and the other player sitting next to you gets a 10 with a $5 bet out. Assuming it was okay with the pit, what would be the proper offer to the guy to switch cards with you?"

By way of pertinent information, Theory of BJ, page 146, e.v. of Ten up is 13%, while e.v. of 6 up is -18%.

My analysis is both players get charged with cheating and the casino is fined heavily for allowing it. That is why it will never happen. Oh yeah they also won't let it happen because the casino gets the shit end of the stick. Any more stupid questions to waste Don's and everyone else's time? I can't believe anyone took the time to answer that question.

[moses]

My analysis is both players get charged with cheating and the casino is fined heavily for allowing it. That is why it will never happen. Oh yeah they also won't let it happen because they get the shit end of the stick. Any more stupid questions to waste Don's and everyone else's time? I can't believe anyone took the time to answer that question.

Hard to believe people actually read your endless posts of bull shit as well. Oh wait, the ones I've talked to don't. Don S was a refreshing change of pace. The answer didn't necessarily have to be related to blackjack for me.

[Saltynuts]

Gents, what is the "T count" simulation the OP mentions? It is just counting the 10 cards? Sorry, a little hazy. Thanks.

[Tarzan]

Tarzan. Do you honestly believe the average blackjack players can do this? Many threads turn into a level one vs level obscurity discussion. Reminds me of a scene when a guy takes his lawnmower into the shop because it won't start. The owner takes a look at it and scatches his head. He calls the top mechanic over who gives it a couple of yanks. Now all three of them are standing around the mower looking puzzled. The new kid walks up, twists off the gas cap, looks down in the tank and says "it ain't got no gas in it."

Verite will tell the blackjack players how much gas they have in their tank, so to speak. Either they can do it or they can't. It's no crime if they can't, but you've got to take that look into the tank.

I can go 5 columns 23,45,67,89,tens and side count Aces. Quite frankly, at that point, the game is exhausting and no longer fun.

Utilization of the information. Do you have maximum utilization of this information, a thorough knowledge of key card impact? You've never given me the impression that you do... if you don't, what is the purpose?
Plus there is no need (in the pitch game).

Incorrect. A more complex count is more critical in a pitch game than in a shoe game. I don't know why you said this but it makes no sense, perhaps you meant to phrase that differently.

So 4 columns and an Ace side count works just as well, if not better. I've had to practically pull it out of Don S to get my answers. But now the EoRs tags line up perfectly and insurance is perfect.

There you go then! You are all set and have the world by the balls.

So this is where it appears to be something from the land of bullshit. 3 groups, An Ace side count, a 9 side count, a 6 side count, a split count that tracks the 23s and 45s separately. Plus you're doing it over the course of 312 cards. Seriously Tarzan, I'm not saying "you" can't do this. I am saying you are probably the only person on this earth that could do it. Now, if you can, why reduce the groupings? Why not just remember every card and/or in more groups? It reads as though you are doing it anyway.

I don't want you to take this too personally or anything, but at times I feel like I am trying to explain that the earth is spherical to a devout "flat earther". Procedural, Moses... it's about following a procedure. This has nothing to do with blackjack, but by following a specific procedure, I can perform strings of multiplication problems very quickly, faster than someone can do on a calculator. Is this because I have some sort of exceptional math skill? No, it's because I am following a specific procedure that I have trained at. You state, "a split count that tracks (2,3) and (4,5) separately", but that's not what is happening. You have a finite number of {2-5} in your grouping, and know the ratio of this grouping to the others. From there you assess whether more (4,5) have been removed than (2,3), an imbalance within the {2-5} groupings impacting both TC and playing decisions differently than an even distribution, a balanced grouping within the {2-5}. There is no "separate" count for (2,3) and (4,5) in the way you are thinking of it. There is a simple rule defining the impact of any imbalance within the grouping.

[ShipTheCookies]

I'm waiting for one of these geniuses to proclaim they are Raymond Babbitt and side count EVERY card!

[moses]

A prime example. T3 writes: "My perspective is the blamers blame someone. If it isn't you it's the dealer. Casino personnel doesn't like blamers at their table or playing in their pit because, for most of them, it makes their job quite unpleasant. They actually do care what table the morons play at. As long as it isn't their table or in their pit they are happy. You act like the casino employees care more about the casino's bottom line then their own personal sanity. That just isn't the way people think. Now if they got the money they might think differently. Like a good tipper or if the floor got some kind of profit sharing. Most share tips so it doesn't matter to them where the tipper plays."

More utter bullshit. The casino is in business to make money...lots and lots of money. Security will rid a table of a moron. But this goes hand in hand because the "person" turned into a "moron" after he lost his money. Sort of like a football team getting trounced 35-0, so now they want to fight because it's evident they can't play worf a shit.

Of course emloyees care about the casinos bottom line. What do you think those early Monday morning meetings are about? Brainwashing. They stand and deal cards 8/40/50 to 52 a year. That's what allows them to buy school clothes, feed, and take their kids to the doctors. So I'll turn the question around. What wouldn't you do for your kids?

T3. The casino is not your circus and the ploppies are not your monkees. Stop trying to be Superman. Just play the game.

[Tarzan]

Out of fairness I think you should mention pitfalls you will encounter. Custom counts are great for heads up play, and possibly Spanish version of 21, where unusual plays take place regularly. Although, when playing regular bj with another player, or a few others, and you are showing inconsistent play, and rather infrequent unusual moves, you often quickly become the reason "unjustified or not" why others are losing, getting angry, vociferous, and changing tables. You are likely thinking wonderful just what I wanted anyway. The last thing the pit wants is unhappy players, especially regulars, and if all the complaining is directed at you, you have become a problem, that may have started on some previous trip, that will be dealt with.

I've seen this in action first hand. Playing alongside the beloved regs can raise eyebrows if you piss them off.