Hi,

I was wondering if someone might be able to help me answer a question regarding the E.o.R for the Ace card?

Lately, iv'e been practicing with a conditional EV program that not only gives you your overall EV(before each wager) but also, the EV for each hand played--Splits, DD, Hit/Stand etc...Anyway, while practicing with this program i've been working and focusing on the accuracy of My betting for "Double Deck" while trying to estimate the dealt/un-dealt of seen/un-seen aces down to the nearest 1/4 deck with about as close to as to precision one can get..But first, i just wanted to say on a side-note that i've been side-counting Aces for well over 10 years and im really good at it(or at least i thought so) until i started calculating the accuracy of My larger bets and comparing them to My Systems TC's to what is MY "actual" overall EV's are before the Hand or Round is dealt..

Now, Trying to be as Honest to Myself as i am with others here, i was actually disappointed to see that when My System (Ao2/99 bc) called for a TC of lets say +4 which yields Approx. a overall 1.28% "Total Bet Advantage" that when calculated the actual overall programs EV it would sometimes be about 1/2 that or around double that, which of course results in "both" under betting and over betting...Now, before i go any further i would like to point out that im well aware of the fact that this is partially based on the fact on how well Your Systems "Betting Correlation" handles the E.o.R of the cards removed and partially based on of what the exact "Deck Composition" of cards may or may not be.... Now believe it or not, and being sure i have an accurate count(programs keeps count too) i started taking a look at each bet above 1 unit(esp. maxbets) in an attempt to determine why My Tc werent matching to My overall Expected Ev's..And after some time i both realized and confirmed that the in-accuracies of My Tc's (when compared ot your overall Ev)where in-fact, primarily due more to Player Error than any other factor..In all fairness, i have to admit that is partially due to "counting errors of the actual cards" however even if your count is perfect, there can be a very fine line when calculating Tcs and determining the differences between a 2 unit bet or 10 unit bet(TC+2 vs TC+4), while also factoring in the Surplus or Shortage of Aces..It might be easy enough to keep an accurate count but to do this accurately and with precision is a little tougher and difficult than one might think..Which now brings me to E.o.R of the Ace..After determining that i was keeping and accurate count, accurately estimating to the nearest 1/8 deck(heads up play) i started becoming more and more proficient at my deck estimating skills and accurately factoring in the Ace Side-count for Betting Purposes to within a few tenths of a percent when comparing this to My "Toatal Bet Advantage" Aka Overall EV vs My relevant Tcs.. Which brings me to my last question about the E.o.R on the Ace..I noticed that when i Added the Aces (+2 each)to my RC for betting My Overall Conditional Ev was almost always exact to My Preferred TC, however when i subtracted the Aces to My RC (-2 each) for betting i started noticing more and more frequently that i was over betting..The more there was an Ace-deficit the more i would overbet..On a hunch i decided to do a little experiment.

.In the 2 examples below i removed exactly 1 deck of cards from 2 decks, and then removed the next 4 Aces(All 8 Aces removed) aces and calculated how much this would hurt the player, followed by adding 4 extra Aces(8 total) to the deck to see how much this would help the player..As you can see in the examples below "removing" 4 Aces from hurts the player MORE than 4 Extra Aces helps the player..So is my assumption true? That a deficit of Aces will hurt more than a surplus of Aces will help you?

(H17/NDAS/NRSA)HE.-.17
-2.66(-2.49)
1.83(+2.00)


(H17/DAS/RSA)HE-.020
-2.44(-2.42)
1.95(+1.97)