Early Surrender in Spanish 21

**Phoebe** · 01-25-2017, 09:35 AM

What is the gain from Late Surrender to Early Surrender in Spanish 21 ?
Say 6 decks, S17, No redouble, Basic Strategy

I ran sim in CVData and MGP's Blackjack Analyser and results are very different.

From -0.372% to -0.167% (+0.205%) for MGP
From -0.385% to +0.444% (+0.829%) for CVData

**Phoebe** · 01-26-2017, 02:51 AM

FYI, an answer in Wizard of Vegas forum

**Phoebe** · 01-30-2017, 06:27 AM

Something really strange with Spanish 21/Early Surrender in CVData

1) Run a sim created from "Spanish 21" template. (regular SP21, 6 deck, H17)
EV=-0.79% (MGP's give -0.786415598641646%). Great.

2) Change only "Late Surrender" to "Early Surrender vs Ace" then EV become positive !

**Phoebe** · 01-31-2017, 02:04 AM

Originally Posted by Tthree

That can't be right for a basic strategist.

No that can't.
It's a flaw in CVData. At least in "Spanish 21" template.

**Allbizness** · 01-31-2017, 04:48 AM

Why would that be a flaw? You would have a gain when the dealer has a 9 in the hole, not just when the dealer has a blackjack. You certainly won't lose much when the dealer has an A, 2, 7, or 8 because you don't surrender good hands. Assuming $250 bet per shoe, or $5 per hand at 50 rounds, that .8% is about $2 saved, or less than 1/2 of one bet. Saving one bet per round as previously suggested as insignificant is $2.50 and a decrease in edge of 1%. I'm not saying the simulator is right, I'm just saying I don't see why it's wrong.

**Phoebe** · 01-31-2017, 05:11 AM

Gain is more that 0.80% !
Even some good rules somewhere in eastern give less.

MGP EV= -0.551067403651263%
A gain of 0.235348195%

Norm: something to do with Bonus #1
Even with "Dealer Peeks Ace/10" it seems that player wins against dealer Blackjack.

BTW, that surrender strategy become not optimal could decrease EV. Not increase.

**Phoebe** · 01-31-2017, 05:44 AM

Very good demonstration.

Originally Posted by Tthree

I am not sure what matchups you would surrender with early surrender but I am thinking 16 and 15 versus ace for sure, 14 maybe, 12 and 13 doubtful.

13-17 vs Ace
16 vs X
As in http://pokermenteur.free.fr/fichiers/SP21ES.xls
(8 decks, H17)

**Allbizness** · 01-31-2017, 09:49 AM

Originally Posted by Tthree

Have you ever played SP21. It is hard to even find a seat most of the time.
The only basic strategy late surrender in SP21 is 17vA. I am not sure what matchups you would surrender with early surrender but I am thinking 16 and 15 versus ace for sure, 14 maybe, 12 and 13 doubtful. The dealer rarely busts an ace in SP21 S17, which is what is being discussed. The dealer also rarely has BJ in SP21 with an ace or T showing. So early surrender is clearly worth a lot less than in BJ. In BJ ES against and ace is worth 0.39% and ES against a T is worth 0.24%. That makes ES against both worth 0.74% in BJ. Remove the 10's from the deck (1/4 of the T value cards) and you play against an A slightly more and a T a lot less. Since you don't bust bad hands as much and the dealer gets BJ a lot less you would surrender less often and get the opportunity to use early surrender less often in general but slightly more often (1/12 versus 1/13 hands). Now how can you say it looks right that ES against an A is worth 0.39% in BJ and you know it is worth a lot less in SP21 when enabling ES against an A in the SP21 template has an increase in player edge of over 0.8% which is more than double what ES against an A is worth in BJ not less than what it is worth? You are not showing a good knowledge of BJ.

Clearly you don't understand simple math. If you gain from the rule one out of 50 rounds, as you proclaimed, it is a 1% decrease in house edge. lol you're sitting there defending your obvious incorrect conclusions like your buddy does and then attacking me for pointing them out like anyone with any sense is going to fall for it. I don't know how much you gain from early surrender in spanish and I don't care. I just said I don't see why it's wrong, based on what why it's said to be wrong, and you obviously can't prove it's wrong because you just tried and described your fact-free theories. I clearly said I'm not saying it is right. Once again, I politely and gently pointed out some nonsense stated by someone who doesn't know what they are talking about and got attacked for it. I don't see how you lose .8% of that 1% by surrendering 15-16 against an ace when he doesn't have a blackjack, but apparently that's a given in your fantasy world. OK man, you keep on truckin. You're probably one those guys who tries to get away with passing himself of as an expert, just praying no one asks you the procedure for tying shoes. If it were me, I would assume you don't benefit from the rule every time the dealer has blackjack because, for example, I wouldn't surrender my blackjack against the dealer's ace like you might, so I'd think the rule would be beneficial less than 1 in 48 rounds. And the probability of ace up blackjack is closer to 1 in 43 than 1 in 48. But just keep on selling us on whatever parker POSE(r)y.

**Phoebe** · 01-31-2017, 10:31 AM

Originally Posted by Allbizness

I don't know how much you gain from early surrender in spanish and I don't care.

I said it, from MGP's BJ CA: +0.235348195% for ES vs Ace

**Allbizness** · 02-01-2017, 03:16 AM

Originally Posted by Tthree

I chose my words poorly

Yes, I know, there's always an excuse. Teacher, I know the material better than everyone, I just circled the wrong answers accidentally. Yawn.

**ZenMaster_Flash** · 02-01-2017, 07:40 AM

Originally Posted by Tthree

"Have you ever played SP21. It is hard to even find a seat most of the time."

Not always so, although, at least on the East Coast, it is generally true.
Recently I played, with a partner, at the sole Span21 game in the MidWest.
Played 3 hours, and we never saw another player. Rules were not the
best, but penetration was very fine.