Break-Even Strategy

[DonR04]

After playing the total of about 50 hours (12 sessions), here's what it looks like:

Rules are: 8 deck, S17, DAS, no surrender. Perfect basic strategy, spreading only 1-2 (I know, I know, lol). A few very basic deviations from BS, based on I18, and just a little bit of Wonging out, when the count goes really low (I was typically waiting until TC of -3 to take a short break).

Total bet units won: 21. Worst loss: 13 units. Best win: 22 units.

This is what I was kind of hoping for; keeping it at around break-even point, picking a few comps and having some fun, without losing money.

I know that 50 hours of play time is too small a sample, but I'm happy so far.

Does this make any sense? All I'm hoping for is that I can keep it like this in the long run.

[Bigdaddy]

After playing the total of about 50 hours (12 sessions), here's what it looks like:

Rules are: 8 deck, S17, DAS, no surrender. Perfect basic strategy, spreading only 1-2 (I know, I know, lol). A few very basic deviations from BS, based on I18, and just a little bit of Wonging out, when the count goes really low (I was typically waiting until TC of -3 to take a short break).

Total bet units won: 21. Worst loss: 13 units. Best win: 22 units.

This is what I was kind of hoping for; keeping it at around break-even point, picking a few comps and having some fun, without losing money.

I know that 50 hours of play time is too small a sample, but I'm happy so far.

Does this make any sense? All I'm hoping for is that I can keep it like this in the long run.

Congrats on your success thus far!

As for you question as to whether you can keep it going, the answer is maybe yes, but more likely: no. The variance of the game is brutal. It can be a sweet little puppy dog for a very long stretch, and then it can turn on you like a pit bull for an even longer stretch. There is no such thing as a smooth ride in this game in the long run. All you can do is play with the best advantage you can for as many rounds as you can and persevere.

Your post indicates that you've played 50 hours (about 5,000 rounds). I just came out of a losing streak of 5,000 rounds where my average bet was around $100 per round and I lost $18k (about 2 standard deviations), and I was playing with a significant advantage.

YMMV and I hope it does....

[DonR04]

Oh, I am well aware of how brutal the variance can be. A few years ago, I was playing with a different approach. Even though I really never considered myself to be a true AP, at least I was trying (key word "trying") to play like one. I was spreading more aggressively, and I got killed so many times at these favorable positive counts. The fact that these are 8 deck games, with almost always full tables, probably was not helpful either. And after some tough losses, I stopped playing. Many of you might say that I just didn't have the stomach for it, which I'm not going to deny. It does take a lot of time, perseverance, and a good stomach to beat this game.

After a pause of a few years, I went back to the tables, but way more cautious than before. And while I am aware that there is no way I'll be making money the way I play, like I said before, I'll be happy to try to keep my game close to break-even.

Just playing perfect BS, for this type of game, house edge is roughly about 0.45%. Definitely not a winning game, but certainly not a dramatically losing game either.

So, I'm thinking if I can make it just slightly better, using these very, very conservative spreads (1-2, 1-3), following the I18 rules, and taking short breaks, to avoid extreme negative counts, maybe I can be close to a break-even game (plus a few comps), which is good enough for me.

The way I see it, my losing sessions should not make me feel too bad, and of course the winning ones always make you feel like you are on top of the world. My first 50 hours were what I was hoping for, and hopefully the next 50 will be as well. Of course, I may be completely wrong.

[Bigdaddy]

By not spreading much you are reducing your variance and thus your exposure to horrific downswings. But things can still get bad even with your muted strategy.

For instance, if you are spreading 1-2 or 1-3 at a $15 table, your average bet will be around $20 per round and your standard deviation will be around $25 per round. Going back to my above example, a horrible 5,000-round stretch (at 2 standard deviations) would put you down about $3,500. Can you handle that? If so, I'd say you're good to go....

[DonR04]

By not spreading much you are reducing your variance and thus your exposure to horrific downswings. But things can still get bad even with your muted strategy.

I love the "muted strategy" term, lol. I guess that's what it is. Yup, I know that things can still get very bad, but as you said, I'm hoping to avoid those horrific losses, or keep them at the minimum.

These weak spreads of mine (probably still a bit better than flat betting), plus I18, plus Wonging out, whenever I can, should hopefully work in my favor and bring down the house edge from around 0.45% to a somewhat lower edge. 1-2 spread most likely isn't going to do it, but 1-3 might, as Fenix kindly pointed out a few days ago.

And that is really all I'm looking for right now - a break-even game (or very close to it). If, and when I get more comfortable, maybe I'll start thinking about doing it with proper spreads.

[seriousplayer]

By not spreading much you are reducing your variance and thus your exposure to horrific downswings. But things can still get bad even with your muted strategy.

For instance, if you are spreading 1-2 or 1-3 at a $15 table, your average bet will be around $20 per round and your standard deviation will be around $25 per round. Going back to my above example, a horrible 5,000-round stretch (at 2 standard deviations) would put you down about $3,500. Can you handle that? If so, I'd say you're good to go....

Are you taking about hedging your advantage against the variance of the game?

[Drewster]

The question I have is with such a low bet how can you expect to make enough in comps to truly break even or get ahead? Isn't comps determined by your average bet and how long you play? So with this strategy are you going to have to be at the tables for long sessions instead of the typical short session described here?

[Bigdaddy]

[QUOTE=DonR04;206043]And that is really all I'm looking for right now - a break-even game (or very close to it). If, and when I get more comfortable, maybe I'll start thinking about doing it with proper spreads./QUOTE]

Nothing wrong with that - wade into the game slowly until you get a comfort level. And if you're killing it one night, then chip up those bets to the next level...

[DonR04]

The question I have is with such a low bet how can you expect to make enough in comps to truly break even or get ahead? Isn't comps determined by your average bet and how long you play? So with this strategy are you going to have to be at the tables for long sessions instead of the typical short session described here?

I'm not looking for hotel rooms, or free flights, that is for sure. A free meal, here and there, will do. And if I can, at the same time, manage to keep the game close to the break-even point, that's fine with me.

As I am aware that there is no way to make money with this strategy, the whole point of this exercise is to try to have some fun at the tables for free, or at least without having to pay for it dearly. It may, or may not work, time will tell. And if it doesn't work, so be it. I can always quit.

[ZeeBabar]

Reminds me of times when I wanted to do or buy something but some instinct was telling me that I should not go ahead and do it. To counter that instinct, I needed supportive arguments and went looking for it. The OP seems to be doing it.

I remember finding reasons to buy my used sports coupe when my instincts were telling me that a new Honda Accorcd was what I needed (I had about a $24kbudget) that it gave better mileage, had more space, was more comfortable than the 6speed 2013 coupe with 15k miles on it (but of course I could get to my destinations faster, turn a few more heads, have a bit more fun getting there) so I went on the sports car forum...

[DonR04]

I'm not understanding investing time and risking dollars to play for free. You can apply the same concept to Verite and become a lean mean blackjack playing machine in time.

I've had weeks where I played 20 sessions and broke even. Man, that feels like crap.

As silly as it sounds to all you true AP's, I'm just enjoying the game, and as long as I'm not on the losing end, I'm fine.

I've recently read one of your comments on the forum (I think it was yours, but I can't find it now). I liked it a lot, so true. It said something about how card counting is easy, counting and winning more challenging, and counting, winning and lasting takes an artist. Honestly, I don't feel like an artist, not yet anyway.

Which brings me to another reason, other than just being too scared to take a full plunge, and that is the fact that I am limited to my local store only. So, I'm thinking, if I go this way, and try to play for break-even (plus comps), I should be able to last for a long time. Anything else, possibly leading to bigger wins, might put me under the radar very quickly, and I would have no way to go to play the game, other than taking longer trips, which I am not ready for.

[BoSox]

I'd be happy with it, playing for comps, and still having some fun at the tables.

The whole concept of having some fun at the tables is in my mind inconceivable. Not to mention way over rated, no pun intended. Putting on a facade or act is a necessary part of blending in, but to really feel the fun, and wonder of it all experience for winning a double down, or being up a few dollars playing a 1 to 3 spread at a really boring game, just for the fun of playing a break even game is to me unconscionable. Why? Well number one on my list is SECOND HAND SMOKE. From there you can go to stupid, and obnoxious ploppies, travel expenses, wear and tear on your vehicle if you are using your own transportation, as well as the chance of being involved in an accident, just to name a few.

Do you think that 1-3 spread, even though very moderate, may still draw attention?

Well heaven forbid, my goodness, you are worried about a max bet of $30. on a 8 deck game just lower your spread! I am being sarcastic.

[bec88]

It seems playing an 8d game with a 1-3 spread would put the n0 so high that you may never reach the long run. You would just up your variance and not much different than just gambling since it will take so many hands to guarantee your edge. . Perhaps just play perfect BS and just accept the house advantage over you if you just want to play for fun.