Break-Even Strategy

**DonR04** · 10-05-2016, 11:13 PM

Hi everyone,

I've been playing BJ, on and off, for more than 20 years. Started with basic strategy, then learned card counting and quickly realized that the games available where I live are very, very tough to beat (8-decks). With not enough tables to wong in and out, and frankly not having enough guts to go for dramatic roller coaster rides, I stopped playing for some time.

After a pause of a couple of years, I went back and just played perfect basic strategy for a few sessions. Actually made some money, although I know that in the long run that's not going to be case. The rules of the game in the local casino are: 8-decks, S17, BJ pays 3:2. The Wizard of Odds site calculator shows around 0.45% house advantage.

So, I am thinking of trying to use very modest spread (like 1-2, or maybe 1-3). This having in mind that anything higher than that would most likely draw unwanted attention very quickly. Also being the only casino in the nearby area, with not too many BJ tables to choose from, I can't really go for the hit and run strategy.

I have never in the past had a player's card, but now I got one. If I could play for comps (a free meal, here and there), and roughly break even with this strategy, I'd be okay with it.

So, basically a perfect basic strategy, plus very modest spreads, with occasional bathroom breaks, when the count is really bad, plus a few of the Illustrious 18 rules (16 vs 10, insurance, 12 vs 4) - do I have a chance of playing a break-even game, getting a few comps along the way?

**stopgambling** · 10-05-2016, 11:47 PM

Yes i believe so if you wong out early and maybe go with a 1-6 spread and maybe a level 2 count . Wonging out and 1-6 spread is the important part ,not the level 2 count.

**ZenMaster_Flash** · 10-16-2016, 08:06 AM

F Y I, some indices will differ while others will not.

Using incorrect indices is WORSE than playing basic strategy

according to the immortal Peter Griffin, Ph.D.

This issue is also closely related to "deck estimation."

**Phoebe** · 10-16-2016, 08:14 AM

Compromise indices are technically incorrect indices.

**MJGolf** · 10-19-2016, 07:54 AM

Originally Posted by Philippe B

Compromise indices are technically incorrect indices.

Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash

F Y I, some indices will differ while others will not.

Using incorrect indices is WORSE than playing basic strategy

according to the immortal Peter Griffin, Ph.D.

This issue is also closely related to "deck estimation."

So what are your thoughts then on: Blackjack lite or Hi Lo lite? Snyder ain't normally considered a ploppy.

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/...t/hilolite.htm

But to get back to OP's question, comps for BJ play were SO much better years ago. (Bring back the good ol' days, right ZenFlash?) It's going to be tough to get them at your level of betting. Most Vegas houses (strip) won't even count your play unless it's $25 minimum bet for 4 hours/day. At local houses, I can get a "cheap" meal comp for the play you mention OR a discount. But not much here for that play.

One suggestion would be to add VP to your play; the casinos LOVE slot play but won't award as many points/cash back for VP BUT added to your BJ play, you might increase your "theoretical" to them by playing both games enough to get the comps you want.

**DonR04** · 10-19-2016, 10:24 PM

Originally Posted by MJGolf

One suggestion would be to add VP to your play; the casinos LOVE slot play but won't award as many points/cash back for VP BUT added to your BJ play, you might increase your "theoretical" to them by playing both games enough to get the comps you want.

Adding something to BJ play would definitely help. I am pretty sure about it. But how do you win at VP?

I was also thinking about craps, but it seems quite confusing. Tried it a few times, for just a few minutes really, only betting on the pass line, and made a few bucks. Is it worth getting more knowledge and investing more time into it?

It would certainly be helpful to bring another play into the repertoire, especially when a little break from a BJ table is needed.

**MJGolf** · 10-20-2016, 07:21 AM

Originally Posted by DonR04

Adding something to BJ play would definitely help. I am pretty sure about it. But how do you win at VP?

I was also thinking about craps, but it seems quite confusing.

It would certainly be helpful to bring another play into the repertoire, especially when a little break from a BJ table is needed.

First I agree with what Rolling Stoned said above. Our mailers here seem to be "either or" based upon what game you play the majority of the time. Some combine slot free play AND table game bonus or "dollars", though. I used to think the "free slot" play was a waste of time (generally it is) but at least I understand it's positive EV no matter how little it is IF I use it v. just tossing it.

The reason I chose VP is that if you play JOB, it's a pretty low variance game. With the correct or "right" pay tables, and play of course, you can play about break even WITH the comps/mailers/promos they give you for play. If I understood your original intent, you are just trying to break even with the comps and bonuses you might get from low level play. (It's easy to print out a strategy chart for VP from WOO website for VP games.)

(Craps is an independent odds game. You have the house edge you can NOT overcome in the long run no matter WHAT. BUT playing pass line or no pass line WITH odds, you can lower the HE tremendously. It's just the casinos don't give you any benefit for playing odds because they pay that out exactly for what it should be paid probability wise. And at the level of betting you mention (red chip), I doubt you would be betting any differently on a craps game, right? Won't be much here as to comps either unless you play a long, long time.)

**DonR04** · 10-20-2016, 11:55 AM

Thanks, guys.

Maybe I'll try VP. I did play it a few times and really didn't lose any money. However, those were rather short sessions.

I also tried VP sims on WOO site, played probably for a few hours, and again pretty much broke even.

It could definitely be a nice break from BJ, and if it helps with comps, even better.

**Norm** · 10-16-2016, 01:10 PM

Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash

Using incorrect indices is WORSE than playing basic strategy

This is only true if the indices are vastly incorrect.

**seriousplayer** · 10-16-2016, 01:51 PM

Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash

F Y I, some indices will differ while others will not.

Using incorrect indices is WORSE than playing basic strategy

according to the immortal Peter Griffin, Ph.D.

This issue is also closely related to "deck estimation."

I've identified seven steps to win money playing Blackjack:

1. Master Basic Strategy and never deviate from it.
2. Test you Basic Strategy skills to make sure you don't make any mistakes.
3. Master a card counting system and optimal betting strategy associated with the count system. Does not require using index deviations.
4. Learn and master the Illustrious 18 and Fab 4 indices.
5. Learn and master the full indices for the count system you are using.
6. Hide your skills as a counter.
7. Use good judgement on Money Management.

Once you master 1-3 you have an advantage over the casino and could win money at Blackjack. To increase your edge over the casino master 4-7.

**BJPloppy** · 10-05-2016, 11:52 PM

I ran your scenario through CVCX for you.
I assumed 8 deck, S17, DAS, $25 min, play all. I used FELT-F so YMMV.

A spread of 1-3 would get you around $6 an hour.
Good luck!

**DonR04** · 10-06-2016, 12:37 AM

Originally Posted by BJPloppy

I ran your scenario through CVCX for you.
I assumed 8 deck, S17, DAS, $25 min, play all. I used FELT-F so YMMV.

A spread of 1-3 would get you around $6 an hour.
Good luck!

Yes, those are the rules, except I typically try to stay with $10 min, and if not available, then $15. I guess for $10 min, it would be $2.4 an hour, or for $15 min - $3.6 an hour. I'd be happy with it, playing for comps, and still having some fun at the tables.

Do you think that 1-3 spread, even though very moderate, may still draw attention?

Pardon my ignorance, but what is "FELT-F"?

Thank you for running it in CVCX for me.

**ZeeBabar** · 10-06-2016, 05:07 AM

Originally Posted by DonR04

Yes, those are the rules, except I typically try to stay with $10 min, and if not available, then $15. I guess for $10 min, it would be $2.4 an hour, or for $15 min - $3.6 an hour. I'd be happy with it, playing for comps, and still having some fun at the tables.

Do you think that 1-3 spread, even though very moderate, may still draw attention?

Pardon my ignorance, but what is "FELT-F"?

Thank you for running it in CVCX for me.

i have never ever heard of a 1-3 spread with a $10 minimum drawing attention at an 8 deck game. I think, perhaps, it's not the concern with heat, it's that you don't want to put out more than $30 on a single hand. I have played in some small rural casinos and still never seen much concern with putting out $$40 or $60 at a $10 table.

However, if you are ahead $200, you should just take a break, learn to rathole and not become paranoid. Feelings of paranoia occur if we think we are cheating. We are not.