For full time card counters, KJ, others..

[Three]

Just today, you said “I expect to win about another 6-10K in the around 25 hours I anticipate playing before the years end”. Is that the way it works? No variance? No possibility of short-term losses. You can “expect” to win such and such of the next short term period? Whether your intent of not, you are misleading and influencing other players into thinking they should do what you do as there is no negative variance.

Yeah. It does seem to work that way. Every 4 to 6 hours I seem to hit the same average hourly. At 20 hours there is only rare times that I am not at my hourly. If you understand what I have tried to explain you can understand why this is the case. I did have one losing trip which you conveniently forgot. I was at my normal hourly save 4 rounds. They were max bet max splits with doubles that were all swept by the dealer while playing 2 spots and turned my expected win into a loss of about the same magnitude. It was pretty amazing since normally I see one or zero such opportunities in a trip with the rare occurrence of 2. Four is unheard of but as you know you will see it all if you play long enough. Like you said you can't avoid bad runs. I have had several individual days where I was playing against aces and T's through lots of high counts and the dealer seemed to draw out constantly while my high count doubles rarely saw paint. These things happen but I remember after the last one thinking how moderate the damage was compared to what it used to be. You have to see the results of super accurate betting and strong playing decisions to believe it. Probably the biggest reason the downswings aren't very large is because I don't have to bet that big to make that hourly. I look at the wide bell curves of the linear approach and see it as lots of built in mistakes even if you count and play perfectly where you over or under bet your advantage and often times bet big into no advantage at all or bet small into a large advantage situation. You kept saying if what you say is true I don't know why you aren't using it to make serious money while all the while I was. I treaded carefully and still keep tweaking my approach. Everything I said was and still proves to be true. You may have done well to try to learn a few things rather than lead a lynch mob. I am sure there is some things that a smart guy could adapt to his game.

And since I have gone down the path of Festivus and am airing my grievances towards you, again, whether you mean to or not, you come off as often talking down to many of us. It's very off-putting and leads one to not want to “like you” very much.

That is a danger of trying to be a good teacher. The worst thing that can happen is for a student to feel this way and I try not to let it happen. Apparently I have failed to be successful with many. It does take some time to go back and find the posts by greats like ICount and EricFarmer et al that actually looked into the principles that all my efforts are based upon. I have constantly tried for year to control the variance of the game. Everything I have tried has been working toward that end. Tweaks and major overhauls repeatedly. I recently considered upping my max bet again but would only be able to do it at about half the stores in my rotation due to casino tolerances for max bet. That would add a great deal of variance to my overall results which to me is a step backwards so I elected to keep my bets at their level and accept I am playing as high a max bet as I believe is wise.

You have taken the other approach and that adds lots of variance to your results including playing different spreads at different casinos. I know you understand what that means and accept it but your perceptions of how things work are based on your craziest of rides model of attack. People playing with other plans of attack may not have the same perceptions based on their experience.