# Thread: For full time card counters, KJ, others..

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## For full time card counters, KJ, others..

How many hours a year/week do you actually play, that is sitting at a BJ table?

i am trying to find how much I can expect to win in a year with a BR of \$25k, playing min. \$25 games (DD or 6 deck) and associated probabilities.

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Originally Posted by ZeeBabar
How many hours a year/week do you actually play, that is sitting at a BJ table?

I was playing with the calculators on this site and just used 3500 hours a year, playing \$25 units with a bank roll of \$25000 and it seems to show that there is a 100% probability of doubling your BR in a year (playing 3500 hours). The probabilities start decreasing beyond winning \$25k.

Maybe I am not understanding it. Do you play 3500 hours in a year?
Zee, that's 70 hours a week - not achievable. Chop the 3500 hours in half, and you should still have 100% probability of doubling - then chop that in half again. Try to use some logic here such as practical hours and accounting for the quality of games. I don't think you're understanding it.

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## REALISTICALLY speaking

Originally Posted by Freightman
"Chop the 3500 hours in half, and you should still have 100% probability of doubling - then chop that in half again."
You are suggesting 3,500/4 = 875 hours per annum.
That is double/treble what professional actually play.
It equates to 73 hours a month. Holy Cow !
I am not simming this, but taking into consideration
the dismal table conditions and the conservative "style"
of play of ZeeBabar, some Betting and Playing Errors,
etc. -- he would be optimistic in anticipating 1 unit (or
\$25) per hour. This is \$25 X 73 [monthly] = \$1,823.
That is a monthly figure, so per annum it is \$21,875
Even if this many hours can be put in in an area with
few casinos, without a barring, ZeeBabar is way too
old to be putting in an absurd number of hours for long.
The stress and variance will be causing pain.

ZeeBabar ... try to understand that computer simulations and
projections of R.O.R., etc. etc. are based upon accurate and error
free play; and you need to be humble and understand that your
play is just recreational. Your 'modal'
scenario is to break even
or win or lose a trivial sum. Be realistic.

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This is my first year as a pro. It is not over yet but about 360 hours so far and \$90K win from counting and \$28K from other AP play. I expect to win about another 6-10K in the around 25 hours I anticipate playing before the years end. If I get the time in that would be 385 hours counting this year. Average about an hour a day.

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Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash
You are suggesting 3,500/4 = 875 hours per annum.
That is double/treble what professional actually play.
It equates to 73 hours a month. Holy Cow !
I am not simming this, but taking into consideration
the dismal table conditions and the conservative "style"
of play of ZeeBabar, some Betting and Playing Errors,
etc. -- he would be optimistic in anticipating 1 unit (or
\$25) per hour. This is \$25 X 73 [monthly] = \$1,823.
That is a monthly figure, so per annum it is \$21,875
Even if this many hours can be put in in an area with
few casinos, without a barring, ZeeBabar is way too
old to be putting in an absurd number of hours for long.
The stress and variance will be causing pain.

ZeeBabar ... try to understand that computer simulations and
projections of R.O.R., etc. etc. are based upon accurate and error
free play; and you need to be humble and understand that your
play is just recreational. Your 'modal'
scenario is to break even
or win or lose a trivial sum. Be realistic.

3 points
1- flash, the idea was to keep chopping in half until his roll didn't double anymore, my omission.
2- CV data will accept errors per hour. I always sim perfect play, because that's what I like to measure myself against. Might be humorous to sim 10-15 errors per hour against various shitty conditions.
3- KJ quit again, in theory, which puts the title of the thread up for edit.

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Originally Posted by Tthree
"This is my first year as a pro. It is not over yet but about 360 hours so far and \$90K win from counting and \$28K from other AP play. I expect to win about another 6-10K in the around 25 hours I anticipate playing before the years end. If I get the time in that would be 385 hours counting this year. Average about an hour a day."
Knowing Tthree personally, (and having often seen his amazing play),
over quite some years, I can say that he is both truthful and honorable;
and these extraordinary figures jive closely with what he has shared
with me numerous times throughout the year. What makes it profound
is that such an extraordinary result can be had playing GREEN. I truly
believe that he is the BEST player extant, bar none. My cap is doffed.

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I go with the 40/2000/5000 rule. Meaning a winrate of \$40 based on 100 hands per hour gets me \$2k per month over the course of 5k hand per month. The key is to get 5k in "quality" play. Could I get more? Perhaps, but that will increase the risk of even less future play opportunities.

Flash mentioned the game can get downright boring at times. I hit that stage years ago. So for me, it's like anything other investment. My time, knowledge, work ethic, and money equal a certain tradeoff. Too much time invested at the blackjack tables could result in other investments and/or aspects of life suffering. Balance and normalcy are easy words to say - hard for some folks to achieve.

Do I always play \$5k hands per month? Heck no. Do I always hit \$2k per month? Usually. The key is to "find the" and "play your" best game possible.
So does roughly \$25K a year make me a pro or AP? I don't really know or care for that matter. I'll leave that up to those who annointed themselves worthy to sit in judgement of others.

The same approach goes into NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB, stocks, and real estate. They don't individually always hit goal. In fact, blackjack often the least volatile. But as a collective group? I can't complain.

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Folks, I made a mistake in my earlier posting that I edited. However, you saw the error message I posted. I was thinking of 365 weeks a year and playing 10 hours per week and that would be about 3650 a year.

Now, 10 hours a week at the tables is not all that much or is it?

These days, the swings are higher but using optimal betting from CVCX, I have been ramping up a lot more. When I was playing earlier, I would go from \$25 minimum to \$50 at TC+2, then \$75 at TC+3, \$100-\$125 at TC+4 and max bet was just \$150. Now, I go to \$100-\$125 at TC+2 and my max bet is \$200 at the DD games. This jump has lead to better success.

My goal was to see if I had the mental potential to play this game successfully given my extremely fiscally conservative nature. I still do not think I can play the 6 deck game at \$25 min. because I am most uncomfortable playing over \$200 per hand (given possible splits and doubles) so I play the 6 deck games at the \$10 or \$15 min. table and the DD game at the \$25 MIN. tables. I still have 3-4 months of experimenting left and it would decide whether I will move to Florida or another city with 3-4 casino options and inexpensive travel to BJ destinations.

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ZeeBaBar, I am going to answer because, unlike others in the community, I.....well, I don't want to go as far as to say “have taken a liking to you”, but I am certainly willing to answer questions and help you when I can. But, in the future, I would prefer that you address me on the other site or through email, since we communicate occasionally by email.

Remember, because of personal differences and opinions, I am now no longer credible, so you need to take anything I say with a grain of salt.

I don't measure my play in terms of time. I count only rounds played, because that is what really translates into dollars (over the long term). I play in the neighborhood of 70,000 plus rounds per year. (this year it was much lower as at the half way point of the year, I made the decision to really slow down and take some time off, basically playing part-time the second half of the year).

I generally AVERAGE about 200 rounds per day and a day is anywhere from 4-6 hours of actual time. Some days where the sessions all seem to go really short due to quickly showing my spread or the count quickly going negative, I might end up registering 150 or 175 rounds. Other days when I hit a couple heads up sessions and can push the envelope a little, maybe show my spread a second time because the game is moving so quickly, I might get in 300-350 rounds (sometimes more). Also because I spread my play around, approximately 4 days a week, I am on the overnight shift (which I have grown to dislike very much), but those days or rather “nights” tend to be a little longer (usually 8 hours as opposed to 4-6) and I usually register more rounds and head up opportunities.

A lot of players might think 70,000 a year rounds translates into 700 hours. It doesn't for me. I average far fewer than 100/rounds an hour. Probably more in the neighborhood of 40 rounds per hour. But I try to make them high quality rounds. I do this by 3 different techniques. 1.) aggressively wonging out of negative counts. 2.) tracking multiple tables and jumping directly from negative/neutral counts changes the true count frequencies in my favor, meaning I see and play a higher percentage of positive and max bets opportunities within those rounds played. And 3.) just general scouting for better opportunities (mostly penetration). While I have somewhere around 30-35 “playable” games in my rotation at all times, I tend to lean just a little more heavily on the better games....just as much as I think I can get away with without “crossing a line”.

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Thanks KJ. Your BJ skills are always credible to me and also to others at this site. You play a certain way, believe in it and for that style of play you have great credibility.

When you say that you average 200 rounds per day, that is 2-4 hours a day and assuming you play 4 days a week, that would be about 500-700 hours a tear.

I am not moving to Las Vegas and there is so much more to learn. Particularly with bet spreads taking heat into consideration. Here, I have gotten away with playing rated because I had been using a small spread and winning too little to really be a concern and now that I am betting more optimally, I think I will eventually need to learn some tricks. Heading out to Tunica in about 2 hours.

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