Variance ?

[Freightman]

My definition of unit is the bet that I have on the table per/hand ( I play 2 hands/round ) when I perceive a 0.5% edge in my favor.

So on a TC +2 I have 2 hands of 1 unit.

I know losing 36 units sounds quite usual but the thing is that I am only spreading from 2x1 to 2x2, so 36 units is quite a lot for such a short period of time..

I want to clarify to make sure that I am understanding correctly.
For the sake of argument, your bet at true 0 is $10, your bet at true +2 is 2 spots St $10. If this is in fact accurate, then you are not close to optimal betting. It might help if you actually state your bets at true 0,1,2,3,4,5,6.

Change the $ values around to protect yourself, just make sure that the proportions are the same. Advise number of decks, deck pen and general rules. If you advise bankroll (actual or in proportion), and I think we can come up with a proper ramp for you. What I am interpreting, right or wrong, is not going to make you any money.

[apkevy]

I want to clarify to make sure that I am understanding correctly.
For the sake of argument, your bet at true 0 is $10, your bet at true +2 is 2 spots St $10. If this is in fact accurate, then you are not close to optimal betting. It might help if you actually state your bets at true 0,1,2,3,4,5,6.

Change the $ values around to protect yourself, just make sure that the proportions are the same. Advise number of decks, deck pen and general rules. If you advise bankroll (actual or in proportion), and I think we can come up with a proper ramp for you. What I am interpreting, right or wrong, is not going to make you any money.

No, I'm avoiding every hand that is below +2. I mainly just watch, CVCX says I will put bets on 13.4 % of the hands that I see. My IBA is 1.515%.
Don't worry, I'm playing a + EV startegy.

Basically I wong in on TC+2 and wong out if TC=2 and out on TC <= ~1.5

[Fireman]

Without knowing the game conditions, it seems like your bet spread is not large enough to maintain a playable edge. Of course, increasing your spread will lead to even more wild swings. I would guess that it may be advisable to either lower your bet unit (if possible) or try to subsidize your bankroll so that you can improve your bet scheme.
Best of luck.

[Freightman]

No, I'm avoiding every hand that is below +2. I mainly just watch, CVCX says I will put bets on 13.4 % of the hands that I see. My IBA is 1.515%.
Don't worry, I'm playing a + EV startegy.

Basically I wong in on TC+2 and wong out if TC<+2 ( If TC is like 1.5-1.99 I might stay at the table and drop to 1 hand of Min. Bet)

Okay. I should have read the entire thread. So, you're unit is somewhat elevated at whatever level your Wong in bet is. Assuming other factors, just plug away - just some bad luck - wouldn't worry about it. Even your drop to 1 hand your minimum wong in bet is fine - since you still have an edge, and your 2x2 Wong in unit is also fine - assuming of course that you are properly bankrolled.

Just keep in mind that the better counts, where you make the most money, is also the area where you you will lose the most.

[apkevy]

Okay. I should have read the entire thread. So, you're unit is somewhat elevated at whatever level your Wong in bet is. Assuming other factors, just plug away - just some bad luck - wouldn't worry about it. Even your drop to 1 hand your minimum wong in bet is fine - since you still have an edge, and your 2x2 Wong in unit is also fine - assuming of course that you are properly bankrolled.

Just keep in mind that the better counts, where you make the most money, is also the area where you you will lose the most.

No worries about not reading the whole thread,

I understand that the big swings will happen when the count skyrocks.

During my last sessions, more than 2 thirds of the rounds I played were max bets ( mainly TC 4+ ).

Just some bad luck I guess.

[Masterhoudini]

No worries about not reading the whole thread,

I understand that the big swings will happen when the count skyrocks.

During my last sessions, more than 2 thirds of the rounds I played were max bets ( mainly TC 4+ ).

Just some bad luck I guess.

I think we should be clear here. He is playing a WONG ONLY game which does not require huge spread or spread at all.

I still think that 36 units is not surprising though- you are only playing at an advantage- but it's a long term thing and still takes many rounds to realize this advantage. You're just playing higher SCORE, lower N0 game. Just hang in there, it always evens out.

I understand about the age thing and not getting support- it is challenging. Unfortunately, you have chosen an oftentimes very lonely journey which often requires internal mental toughness from within yourself to get through it. Also you may not know it, but actually many of the high stakes pros I know are in their 20's and early 30's- some of us may not be as ancient as you think

[Three]

N0 is only 34000 rounds SEEN so about 4000 rounds played.

A good game has a n0 of 20K or less. The long run is an exponential function of n0. Translation: You have a very insignificant sampling that you are basing you long term results on. To start to expect the results to fall in line very roughly you need a 9 times n0 sampling. Have you seen 306,000 rounds played or observed (about 36,000 played)? At a likely speed of 60 rounds an hour, that is 5,100 hours. You have seen 300 rounds and are thinking card counting doesn't work? Get back to us after 306K seen or played.

Now if you observed a game with a n0 of 20K that 9 times n0 would be 180,000 rounds or 3,000 hours. A great game with a 5K n0 45,000 rounds or 750 hours.

[stopgambling]

I have to agree with T3 , i would at least look at it from 4 x n zero .you have 400 units for a wong in only game . It sounds like a decent plan. What matters is how long can you just play wong in at tc2 and out at tc -1 . i would try to wong in at tc3 and wong out at tc 0 or about tc 0. that way you do not have to wong in/out as much. but tou have to wait quite bit longer w 8 decks. BtW ,you didn't seem to mention what kind of game.you will have a long wait if it's more that 1.5 deck cutoff from 8 decks .

[apkevy]

I think we should be clear here. He is playing a WONG ONLY game which does not require huge spread or spread at all.

I still think that 36 units is not surprising though- you are only playing at an advantage- but it's a long term thing and still takes many rounds to realize this advantage. You're just playing higher SCORE, lower N0 game. Just hang in there, it always evens out.

I understand about the age thing and not getting support- it is challenging. Unfortunately, you have chosen an oftentimes very lonely journey which often requires internal mental toughness from within yourself to get through it. Also you may not know it, but actually many of the high stakes pros I know are in their 20's and early 30's- some of us may not be as ancient as you think

The twenties are still ahead of me.
Yep i'm that young...

Stores available are not abundant due to my age, I play where I can.
I'm not giving up.

Thank you for your advices MasterH,

You've been very helpful

[Ryemo]

I understand variance,

I know there is going to be a lot of losing sessions, even months.

But would you qualify losing 10% of your BR in just 3-4 hours "usual" ?

I just started playing BJ seriously as an AP, so far 6 sessions and I'm still under initial BR.

I've seen what variance is

But so far only negative "extreme variance sessions"

I've never won more than 10 units in a session,

Losing 36 arouses my curiosity

Thoughts such as "does card counting really works after all ? " are crossing my mind...

36 units? I lost 109 units last night and that's not even close to my biggest loss in one session. If you're spreading big and putting the money out when the count calls for it, big swings (positive and negative), will occur! As far as losing 10% of your BR... Is it "usual"? That depends on the size of your bank and the game that you're playing. You need to learn to get used to the big swings, otherwise, you won't make it. If you're upset about losing 36 units now, you'll be devastated the day you lose 200+ units.

Counting works and the big swings are part of it. If it didn't work, this forum wouldn't exist. All you need to worry about is gaining +EV.

[Three]

I lost 109 units last night and that's not even close to my biggest loss in one session

You get a good early high count heads up with the nightmare can't win a hand scenario it is pretty easy to lose 100 units (BP/munchkin units). It doesn't happen to me much but sooner or later you run into the buzz saw. It is part of the ride.

[apkevy]

36 units? I lost 109 units last night and that's not even close to my biggest loss in one session. If you're spreading big and putting the money out when the count calls for it, big swings (positive and negative), will occur! As far as losing 10% of your BR... Is it "usual"? That depends on the size of your bank and the game that you're playing. You need to learn to get used to the big swings, otherwise, you won't make it. If you're upset about losing 36 units now, you'll be devastated the day you lose 200+ units.

Counting works and the big swings are part of it. If it didn't work, this forum wouldn't exist. All you need to worry about is gaining +EV.

You have not read the whole post. 36 units lost when spreading from 2x1 to 2x2 units is a lot. According to CVCX, last night session was 2,45% likely to happen. It is just over 2 standard deviations. It is a big swing.

[apkevy]

I am aware my sampling is insignificant
(~3.3K rounds observed)

I did not state anything based on that insignificant sampling

I also never defined n0 as "long run"

I know there are way better games out there but am limited due to age restrictions

I'm not that ignorant

I got a -2s.d. swing early and it aroused my curiosity,

That is all

There is no need to get mad at me

A good game has a n0 of 20K or less. The long run is an exponential function of n0. Translation: You have a very insignificant sampling that you are basing you long term results on. To start to expect the results to fall in line very roughly you need a 9 times n0 sampling. Have you seen 306,000 rounds played or observed (about 36,000 played)? At a likely speed of 60 rounds an hour, that is 5,100 hours. You have seen 300 rounds and are thinking card counting doesn't work? Get back to us after 306K seen or played.

Now if you observed a game with a n0 of 20K that 9 times n0 would be 180,000 rounds or 3,000 hours. A great game with a 5K n0 45,000 rounds or 750 hours.