Variance ?

[apkevy]

I'm dissapointed about my last session.

Looking back, I did everything the right way, I used my regular RA Indices, played the same strategy as before, etc.

On that session,

I barely played more than 40 rounds

I wonged in at TC +2 and wonged out if TC<1 on a 8 deck game

I've seen about 300 rounds on that session ), going 2x1 units to 2x2 units if TC > 4.

Over the course of 4 hours, I lost all of my trip bankroll ( 36 units )

I used CVCX to calculate the chances of this happening : 2,45%

I don't really care about the loss,

I am more scared because if an event that is 2,45% likely to happen has happened to me

Then if I am playing with 2% RoR with no time constraint/goals I could lose it all !

I'm no longer sure I want to continue counting cards, last session results are scary...

[Jabberwocky]

I'm dissapointed about my last session.

Looking back, I did everything the right way, I used my regular RA Indices, played the same strategy as before, etc.

On that session,

I barely played more than 40 rounds

I wonged in at TC +2 and wonged out if TC<1 on a 8 deck game

I've seen about 300 rounds on that session ), going 2x1 units to 2x2 units if TC > 4.

Over the course of 4 hours, I lost all of my trip bankroll ( 36 units )

I used CVCX to calculate the chances of this happening : 2,45%

I don't really care about the loss,

I am more scared because if an event that is 2,45% likely to happen has happened to me

Then if I am playing with 2% RoR with no time constraint/goals I could lose it all !

I'm no longer sure I want to continue counting cards, last session results are scary...

The variance is only one small facit of being a successful AP. Dealing with IRS will be your biggest test in that area.

[apkevy]

I understand variance,

I know there is going to be a lot of losing sessions, even months.

But would you qualify losing 10% of your BR in just 3-4 hours "usual" ?

I just started playing BJ seriously as an AP, so far 6 sessions and I'm still under initial BR.

I've seen what variance is

But so far only negative "extreme variance sessions"

I've never won more than 10 units in a session,

Losing 36 arouses my curiosity

Thoughts such as "does card counting really works after all ? " are crossing my mind...

The variance is only one small facit of being a successful AP. Dealing with IRS will be your biggest test in that area.

[stopgambling]

You think you understand variance. i have had session where i played with a 2.5% advantage and lost 60+ bets in about 300 bets,every bet had about 2.5 % advantage.That is about 60 max bets . Most members here probably lost half or close to half their bankroll numerous times. It happens and will continue to happen ,but the opposite is also true but with a higher frequency.

[Masterhoudini]

I am confused. Did you lose 36 max bets or units? Also what is your definition of unit? 36 max bets is a lot for 4 hours and would certainly be devastating.

[apkevy]

I am confused. Did you lose 36 max bets or units? Also what is your definition of unit? 36 max bets is a lot for 4 hours and would certainly be devastating.

I lost 36 units, playing 2x1 on TC [2,4[ and 2x2 units on TC 4+, so I have lost 9(2x2) max bets in 40 rounds of play

[apkevy]

I am confused. Did you lose 36 max bets or units? Also what is your definition of unit? 36 max bets is a lot for 4 hours and would certainly be devastating.

My definition of unit is the bet that I have on the table per/hand ( I play 2 hands/round ) when I perceive a 0.5% edge in my favor.

So on a TC +2 I have 2 hands of 1 unit.

I know losing 36 units sounds quite usual but the thing is that I am only spreading from 2x1 to 2x2, so 36 units is quite a lot for such a short period of time.. I think it's a 2 s.d. swing !

[Freightman]

My definition of unit is the bet that I have on the table per/hand ( I play 2 hands/round ) when I perceive a 0.5% edge in my favor.

So on a TC +2 I have 2 hands of 1 unit.

I know losing 36 units sounds quite usual but the thing is that I am only spreading from 2x1 to 2x2, so 36 units is quite a lot for such a short period of time..

I want to clarify to make sure that I am understanding correctly.
For the sake of argument, your bet at true 0 is $10, your bet at true +2 is 2 spots St $10. If this is in fact accurate, then you are not close to optimal betting. It might help if you actually state your bets at true 0,1,2,3,4,5,6.

Change the $ values around to protect yourself, just make sure that the proportions are the same. Advise number of decks, deck pen and general rules. If you advise bankroll (actual or in proportion), and I think we can come up with a proper ramp for you. What I am interpreting, right or wrong, is not going to make you any money.

[apkevy]

I want to clarify to make sure that I am understanding correctly.
For the sake of argument, your bet at true 0 is $10, your bet at true +2 is 2 spots St $10. If this is in fact accurate, then you are not close to optimal betting. It might help if you actually state your bets at true 0,1,2,3,4,5,6.

Change the $ values around to protect yourself, just make sure that the proportions are the same. Advise number of decks, deck pen and general rules. If you advise bankroll (actual or in proportion), and I think we can come up with a proper ramp for you. What I am interpreting, right or wrong, is not going to make you any money.

No, I'm avoiding every hand that is below +2. I mainly just watch, CVCX says I will put bets on 13.4 % of the hands that I see. My IBA is 1.515%.
Don't worry, I'm playing a + EV startegy.

Basically I wong in on TC+2 and wong out if TC=2 and out on TC <= ~1.5

[Freightman]

No, I'm avoiding every hand that is below +2. I mainly just watch, CVCX says I will put bets on 13.4 % of the hands that I see. My IBA is 1.515%.
Don't worry, I'm playing a + EV startegy.

Basically I wong in on TC+2 and wong out if TC<+2 ( If TC is like 1.5-1.99 I might stay at the table and drop to 1 hand of Min. Bet)

Okay. I should have read the entire thread. So, you're unit is somewhat elevated at whatever level your Wong in bet is. Assuming other factors, just plug away - just some bad luck - wouldn't worry about it. Even your drop to 1 hand your minimum wong in bet is fine - since you still have an edge, and your 2x2 Wong in unit is also fine - assuming of course that you are properly bankrolled.

Just keep in mind that the better counts, where you make the most money, is also the area where you you will lose the most.

[apkevy]

Okay. I should have read the entire thread. So, you're unit is somewhat elevated at whatever level your Wong in bet is. Assuming other factors, just plug away - just some bad luck - wouldn't worry about it. Even your drop to 1 hand your minimum wong in bet is fine - since you still have an edge, and your 2x2 Wong in unit is also fine - assuming of course that you are properly bankrolled.

Just keep in mind that the better counts, where you make the most money, is also the area where you you will lose the most.

No worries about not reading the whole thread,

I understand that the big swings will happen when the count skyrocks.

During my last sessions, more than 2 thirds of the rounds I played were max bets ( mainly TC 4+ ).

Just some bad luck I guess.

[Masterhoudini]

No worries about not reading the whole thread,

I understand that the big swings will happen when the count skyrocks.

During my last sessions, more than 2 thirds of the rounds I played were max bets ( mainly TC 4+ ).

Just some bad luck I guess.

I think we should be clear here. He is playing a WONG ONLY game which does not require huge spread or spread at all.

I still think that 36 units is not surprising though- you are only playing at an advantage- but it's a long term thing and still takes many rounds to realize this advantage. You're just playing higher SCORE, lower N0 game. Just hang in there, it always evens out.

I understand about the age thing and not getting support- it is challenging. Unfortunately, you have chosen an oftentimes very lonely journey which often requires internal mental toughness from within yourself to get through it. Also you may not know it, but actually many of the high stakes pros I know are in their 20's and early 30's- some of us may not be as ancient as you think

[apkevy]

I think we should be clear here. He is playing a WONG ONLY game which does not require huge spread or spread at all.

I still think that 36 units is not surprising though- you are only playing at an advantage- but it's a long term thing and still takes many rounds to realize this advantage. You're just playing higher SCORE, lower N0 game. Just hang in there, it always evens out.

I understand about the age thing and not getting support- it is challenging. Unfortunately, you have chosen an oftentimes very lonely journey which often requires internal mental toughness from within yourself to get through it. Also you may not know it, but actually many of the high stakes pros I know are in their 20's and early 30's- some of us may not be as ancient as you think

The twenties are still ahead of me.
Yep i'm that young...

Stores available are not abundant due to my age, I play where I can.
I'm not giving up.

Thank you for your advices MasterH,

You've been very helpful