Little help with bet sizing/spred I should be using.

[DickFer]

Ive just starting working on counting using hi-lo strategy and so far using casino verite blackjack simulator I can count a 6 deck shoe pretty accurately. Now that I'm getting better at counting I'm starting to move onto how big bets should be. I know once true count goes up my bets should go up, but I need to know exactly how much. And also since my bankroll is going to be fairly small I want to keep ROR as low as possible because I don't want to go broke before my bankroll starts to grow. When I do start playing for real money, its probably going to be $5 min and only I want to start with around $1000 BR. Is this even advisable or will the ROR just be too high and ill most likely go broke? Starting with a bigger bankroll for me just isn't feasible. I could save money and start with a bigger bankroll but it would take me quite a while to save up much more. So I know no matter what I do my ROR is going to be fairly high unless I wait 10 years and start with a $10,000 BR. But... I don't want to wait so yea I guess I'm willing/have to live with having a high ROR. Now back to original question... how big my spread/bets should be. My goal is to make a profit but also keep ROR at a reasonable number. I guess I'm looking for a little help finding the sweet spot. Also I need a little help interpreting the following:
True Count +2 or below: Amount to Bet = Table Minimum
True Count +2 or above: Amount to Bet = True Count * Betting
(I'm getting this from blackjackgeeks.com/cardcounting/betting.php (the second graph on this page)
wouldn't this mean. take the TC multiplied by your 1 unit? and if i'm playing $5 min, 1 unit = $5? wouldn't that mean for example TC is at 4, I would do 4(TC)*$5(units) = $20 ?? But the graph they give shows different
Graph shows. (TC 1 or below = 5) (TC = 2 = 25) (TC = 3 =50) (TC = 4 =75) and it goes up 25 for every TC point all the way up to 10 being 225.

From what I'm reading the more the advantage (higher the TC) the more I want to bet. This makes sense but also if you have a limited bankroll this would most certainly expose you to a great amount of volatility/ROR correct?

I need someone to give me an easy answer to how much to bet per TC point. (easy formula I can use on the go) Say my TC is at 6. What do I do to figure how big my bet should be if I'm playing $5 min table with $1000 BR? Or do I just forget how much my BR is and say fuck it? Odds are in my favor so I'm going to put as much down as I can? Anyway. quick formula to use on the go to calculate bet size according to TC please and thank you!

[Admin Edit: Link to bad site broken]

[Shadowless]

I can count a 6 deck shoe pretty accurately.

Strive to be 100% accurate 100% of the time.

And also since my bankroll is going to be fairly small I want to keep ROR as low as possible because I don't want to go broke before my bankroll starts to grow. When I do start playing for real money, its probably going to be $5 min and only I want to start with around $1000 BR.

It's not possible to have your RoR any lower with a 200 unit bankroll since the table minimums don't go lower than $5 without having bad rules and playing conditions.
What you can do is wong in/out. You shouldn't be playing all hands in a 6D game since you only have 200 units to work with.

I need someone to give me an easy answer to how much to bet per TC point. (easy formula I can use on the go) Say my TC is at 6. What do I do to figure how big my bet should be if I'm playing $5 min table with $1000 BR?

You would be overbetting your bankroll if you were following that betting schedule.

With a $1,000 bankroll, your full Kelly unit is $3.75.
Since you want to keep RoR as low as possible, you might consider doing half or quarter Kelly.
80% Kelly would be $3, which is an easier number to work with.

Equation would be: (TC-1) * $3
So at a TC of 6, you would bet $15.

Basically $3 per true count over 1.

[DickFer]

wouldn't I end up going broke by betting so small because I'm not taking advantage of my advantage enough? know what i'm saying? I think I read you're only at an advantage 18% of the time. So if I'm not taking advantage of that advantage enough wouldn't it cripple me causing me eventually to go broke? and even if I do profit wouldn't it be so small it wouldn't be worth the time? pennies per hour? Just questions running through my mind . I'm just getting started hehe. I don't know math very good but just from plugging numbers into calculators and stuff it seems like if you don't start with a pretty large bankroll you're just throwing your money away/wasting your time. Going to look into this Kelly thing. Thanks for reply

also I plan on continuing to keep practicing counting until its so easy I don't even have to think about it. It's getting easier and i'm getting more accurate the more games I play. This casino verite app is really helpful.

[DickFer]

http://www.math.ucla.edu/~tom/stat596/Kelly.pdf

[DickFer]

This doesn't seem to be so cut and dry as I thought, going to take me quite a while to understand how much I should be betting and when. I'll be back in 5 years when my research is done lol.

[DickFer]

With a $1,000 bankroll, your full Kelly unit is $3.75.
Since you want to keep RoR as low as possible, you might consider doing half or quarter Kelly.
80% Kelly would be $3, which is an easier number to work with.

Equation would be: (TC-1) * $3
So at a TC of 6, you would bet $15.

Basically $3 per true count over 1.

can you tell me how you came up with Kelly unit = $3.75 please

(I wanna be able to recalculate my bet sizes as my BR fluctuates)

[Shadowless]

can you tell me how you came up with Kelly unit = $3.75 please

(I wanna be able to recalculate my bet sizes as my BR fluctuates)

Bankroll * 0.005 * 0.75
0.75 is to account for variance (learned that the other month from Don).
0.005 represents the approximate 0.5% advantage per true count.
And remember to account for the house edge by subtracting 1 from the TC before multiplying by your betting unit.

If you plan on quitting and never playing again if you lose your $1,000, then you should stick strictly to your current betting unit.
If you plan on reinvesting into your bankroll, or if you could access more funds once you became more serious and confident in your game, you should resize accordingly.

[DickFer]

Right now what I would have to do is probably start with $1000 BR and be able to add maybe $100-$150 a month to it if I have to. If I'm showing positive results at $5 dollar table for a while building my bankroll then I would probably start increasing my Kelly unit? correct? So I build my BR up to $2000, I would then do 2000*0.005*0.75= $7.5/Kelly unit. SO if TC is 6, I do 6-1*$7.50=$37.50. So I would bet $37.50 on a TC of 6 if my Kelly unit was $7.50.

How confident are you in that formula you presented by the way? How accurate is it? Dead on? Thanks for the help man.

[Shadowless]

Right now what I would have to do is probably start with $1000 BR and be able to add maybe $100-$150 a month to it if I have to. If I'm showing positive results at $5 dollar table for a while building my bankroll then I would probably start increasing my Kelly unit? correct? So I build my BR up to $2000, I would then do 2000*0.005*0.75= $7.5/Kelly unit. SO if TC is 6, I do 6-1*$7.50=$37.50. So I would bet $37.50 on a TC of 6 if my Kelly unit was $7.50.

How confident are you in that formula you presented by the way? How accurate is it? Dead on? Thanks for the help man.

The formula is accurate and effective because the amount you are betting is in relation to your percent advantage for the given hand and accounts for variance.
It is correct and has been written in a few reputable books by reputable authors. Burning the Tables in Las Vegas by Ian Andersen to name one.

Also, it's not always practical to bet EXACTLY the "correct" amount.
In the case of betting $37.50 at TC 6 once you are at $7.50 betting unit, you might find yourself betting $35 or $36 instead, for simplicity, since getting a blackjack on $37.50 isn't a number that dealers are used to paying out and could slow the game slightly. ($56.25, in which you'll be shorted a 25 cents).

If you're more of a risk taker and plan on adding to your bankroll, you could round up to $40, but most people will advise against that since players tend to slightly overestimate their edge, or the true count conversion and/or deck estimation may not have been entirely accurate.

[DickFer]

Sounds good!! Yea I wouldn't make ridiculous bet sizes like that lol, I'm just trying to get a feel for what my bet sizes should be. You've helped me immensely. I think I have my bet sizing down thanks to your help and formulas. Now I just need to keep practicing on counting and learning the index numbers for hi-low.

[DickFer]

Also, lets say TC is 0. I do 0-1*$3.75. =-$3.75. So is this saying I shouldn't be making any bets at TC0 because my expected result is negative? Also if TC=1 it would recommend I bet $3.75. So is this saying betting $5 is too much? So technically according to this I should be waiting to make any bets until TC is near 2 or 2 or higher? Which means I need to be back counting, and sitting out as much as possible when the shoe isn't in my favor, correct?

[Shadowless]

Also, lets say TC is 0. I do 0-1*$3.75. =-$3.75. So is this saying I shouldn't be making any bets at TC0 because my expected result is negative? Also if TC=1 it would recommend I bet $3.75. So is this saying betting $5 is too much? So technically according to this I should be waiting to make any bets until TC is near 2 or 2 or higher? Which means I need to be back counting, and sitting out as much as possible when the shoe isn't in my favor, correct?

If possible, do not bet at all when the advantage shifts to the house's favor (at TC 0 and below).
The only disadvantage to this is that the casino will eventually catch on to what you're up to.
Most casinos won't mind too much if you're just a recreational player who doesn't do heavy betting, but an advantage is still an advantage and some places will back you off even if you're not a really a "threat."

If you can dedicate $1,334 for your bankroll, you can use a $5 betting unit instead of $3.75 at $1,000.
It doesn't mean that you have to immediately have that amount available since it's not wise to take your entire stake with you for every session.

Correct, backcount and only play when you have a positive expectation.
Again, keep in mind the possible repercussions of backcounting and know your casino and its tolerance.

Sounds good!! Yea I wouldn't make ridiculous bet sizes like that lol, I'm just trying to get a feel for what my bet sizes should be. You've helped me immensely. I think I have my bet sizing down thanks to your help and formulas. Now I just need to keep practicing on counting and learning the index numbers for hi-low.

Keep in mind that S17 and H17 indices are slightly different, and will also vary if the game allows double after split or not.
Learn the correct indices for the game you plan on playing.

[DickFer]

Thanks again, this thread has really clarified things a lot. Now I know how big of advantage it is to start with a bigger bankroll. You wouldn't have to back count and you could even make min bets when you're at a disadvantage because your larger bet sizes when you have an advantage would offset the losses. Obviously it would still be wise to not make any bad bets when TC0 or worse but if you're trying to stay off the radar it would help to play through a little when you have -EV(maybe?).

This was just random thought and really had nothing to do with thread lol. Anyway back to practicing with casino verite software