Can the House Advantage be Overcome by Flat Betting w/ I18?

**Bigdaddy** · 05-14-2015, 11:09 AM

Hypothetical scenario - Playing a two-deck game, S17, DAS, 60% pen. The house advantage using basic strategy is in the .2% range.

Question - can you overcome the house advantage just by using the Illustrious 18 indexes and flat betting?

I know this topic is covered generally in Don and Wong's books (i.e., the vast majority of the card counter's advantage comes from bet variation), but how about the above scenario where the house advantage is really small?

If the house advantage in this game can be overcome with flat betting, maybe it's worth using this strategy in a high limit game to rack up the comps and not worry about getting the boot. There might even be an opportunity to ramp the bet occasionally and pick up a little more EV.

**DSchles** · 05-14-2015, 11:26 AM

"Question - can you overcome the house advantage just by using the Illustrious 18 indexes and flat betting?"

The short answer is: no. Flat betting the game you suggest still leaves you with a very slight negative edge (0.08%). Spreading 1 to 2 gets you to +0.33%.

Don

**marriedputter** · 05-14-2015, 11:29 AM

Originally Posted by Bigdaddy

Hypothetical scenario - Playing a two-deck game, S17, DAS, 60% pen. The house advantage using basic strategy is in the .2% range.

Question - can you overcome the house advantage just by using the Illustrious 18 indexes and flat betting?

I know this topic is covered generally in Don and Wong's books (i.e., the vast majority of the card counter's advantage comes from bet variation), but how about the above scenario where the house advantage is really small?

If the house advantage in this game can be overcome with flat betting, maybe it's worth using this strategy in a high limit game to rack up the comps and not worry about getting the boot. There might even be an opportunity to ramp the bet occasionally and pick up a little more EV.

Even with comps, probably not enough to make it worthwhile. Do you get good comps by flat betting?

In Burning The Tables in Vegas, Ian Andersen talks about a situation where someone with a massive bankroll would play 2 hands and flat bet with the late surrender option. His bets, though flat, were enormous. He would play perfectly according to the count (including all correct surrender decisions) and exit in negative shoes. The variance was massive, but the benefits were enough to be worthwhile. Since the dark side is always looking for bet variations, the flat better wasn't considered a threat.

This is the only circumstance that I have ever heard of where a flat better could make it work, but it was massive bets, perfect play, late surrender, and wonging out. Your Ill18 probably just wouldn't be enough.

**Bigdaddy** · 05-14-2015, 11:40 AM

Originally Posted by DSchles

"Question - can you overcome the house advantage just by using the Illustrious 18 indexes and flat betting?"

The short answer is: no. Flat betting the game you suggest still leaves you with a very slight negative edge (0.08%). Spreading 1 to 2 gets you to +0.33%.

Don

Thanks Don - what about the same scenario but wonging out at -1? Does that get you in positive territory?

**Three** · 05-14-2015, 12:24 PM

You are going to need a stronger count along with more indices to beat the HE flat betting the game you described. HIOPT2 full indices should give you a very slight edge flat betting.

**DSchles** · 05-14-2015, 02:09 PM

"What about the same scenario but wonging out at -1? Does that get you in positive territory?"

Yes, certainly. Almost +0.7%.

Don

**Bigdaddy** · 05-14-2015, 05:14 PM

Originally Posted by DSchles

"What about the same scenario but wonging out at -1? Does that get you in positive territory?"

Yes, certainly. Almost +0.7%.

Don

Don - you are the man. Thank you for your service.

So a good beer-drinking act and a lot of bathroom breaks might get this done.....

**Norm** · 05-14-2015, 05:25 PM

If you have some years on you, the beer may not be needed. About two-thirds of 65 year-olds have an enlarged prostate, resulting in frequent bathroom trips. Percentage increases with age. Hard to believe that casinos don't know this as so many of their frequent customers are elderly.

**Bigdaddy** · 05-14-2015, 06:19 PM

Originally Posted by Norm

If you have some years on you, the beer may not be needed. About two-thirds of 65 year-olds have an enlarged prostate, resulting in frequent bathroom trips. Percentage increases with age. Hard to believe that casinos don't know this as so many of their frequent customers are elderly.

Good point Norm - thank you for your service - I would have never been able to get my skill level to where it needed to be without the CV BJ simulation software. Best $100 I ever spent.
As for the act - I like to be authentic - it really isn't that hard (for me) to count a DD game with a few beers in me - takes a little practice and it's a lot of fun...

**Cloudstreets7087** · 05-14-2015, 07:03 PM

I don't really understand how flat betting could work. If you are in a deficit while building the count (which happens a lot), the idea is to ram and jam when the count gets good. Now you can recover your lost chips plus gain profit. If you're flat betting, you may not even recover lost chips, because a favorable count can drop in just a couple hands.

**Three** · 05-14-2015, 07:08 PM

You play a game with a really low HE and an advanced level count with high PE. The gain from your playing decisions covers the HE. The game he described isn't quite good enough to really beat even with a strong count. You can just barely tip the scales to basically an even game that slightly favors the player. I am guessing he has been flat bet by the casino and wants to know if he can still play a +EV game.

**stopgambling** · 05-14-2015, 08:25 PM

he can use your count and a 1-2 spread with some wong out . it could be slightly profitable , right? i am looking into the count you use , interesting but hard . The time has come to take a look at it.

**Bigdaddy** · 05-15-2015, 05:47 AM

Originally Posted by stopgambling

he can use your count and a 1-2 spread with some wong out . it could be slightly profitable , right?

Yes - this was the point of my original post; to summarize - in a good game such as two-deck, S17, DAS, it doesn't take much to overcome the house advantage. Just using a Hi-Lo count with the I18 indexes gets you down to a .08% house edge (per Don). All you need to do from there is a little bit of Wong out and maybe an occasional bet ramp to turn the game in your favor.

This is obviously not a strategy to maximize profits. But for the casual counter, it might be a way to walk into a high-limit pit, play for $100/hand, rack up comps, establish yourself as a non-threat (due to flat betting), have some fun and peace of mind that long-term you're not throwing your money away. View it as a low-profit game with extreme camo!