Real-Life Example of Variance

[Exoter175]

A count discussion/debate? Oh good.

I give moses a little bit of a pass because I though he played exclusively or mostly single deck games. That is one of the rare situations where there is some worthwhile benefit remaining on seeking a level 2/3 count. But now, he's talking 6 deck games and I shake my head.

I will dust off yet again, my bigplayer quote (which I just used a couple days ago on another site). "What count a player decides to play is one of the least important decisions that he makes".

In today's mediocre (at best) games, and I am specifically talking 6/8 decks, it just makes very little difference. The days when it mattered are long gone.

Anyone seeking a higher level count as means for improving their results are "chasing pennies when they should be chasing dollars". (<-that one's mine). Meaning there are things you can do to improve results, that are far more beneficial than seeking a different count.

That's it....I'll keep it short. Go about your debate.

Don't tell ZK that........

[Exoter175]

I am not going to continue 'the debate'. Especially with the same people over and over. You are not going to change my mind and I m not going to change yours. The only real good from occasionally rehashing is so the newer folks can hear both sides and decide for themselves what is best for them.

But I can't let this one go without comment. "People idolize me". Seriously, I don't think people idolize me. I think and hope some members appreciate my contributions and the sharing of my experiences, thoughts and opinions. Just as I appreciate the same from others. But let's not get carried away with 'idolizing'. You must not be a member of Wong's site, cause the big boys over there don't seem to idolize me all that much. They smack me down every chance they get.

Of course they are going to smack you down every chance they get. You're still playing, still making a killing, and most of those guys are either banned/barred or burned out playing much lower risk/lower stakes games than you do, and they probably do it part time.

As for idolization, I think on this forum that person would be me, and I wouldn't say "idol" so much as esteemed mentor.

On topic, I don't really understand the disparity between You and Moses here. You know there are better games for you to play, but you can't play them due to tolerance for longevity, and he knows there are better games for you to play, but knows you wont' due to tolerance for longevity.

Its literally like the "two sides of the same coin" theory.

You're both wise beyond your years, and you are both right. However, whats best for one, might not be best for another. I hiiiiiiighly doubt there are more than a handful of members on this forum that could sit down at my games and count with me, without getting caught in some degree, and I'm the "newcomer" to this forum. Why? Because its evident to varying degrees on this forum, that some people seem to think that all there is to the "game" is the math, and they couldn't be more wrong. Unfortunately for those players, they'll either never get the opportunity to play full time, or never get the opportunity to make boat loads of money due to their inherent lack of "cover" and "Schmoozing".

After all, what's the point of playing a game where the +EV is in the neighborhood of $300/hr if you're guaranteed to get pinched within 30 minutes, but right next door was a game you could play forever with a +EV of $26/hr?

[Bodarc]

I prefer spending my time scouting for something with a bigger advantage than worrying about the miniscule difference in counts.

[Exoter175]

Blackjack is a game of cards played by people...all sorts of different people. Those that employ math to it tend to hang around longer. Those that don't...well I just shake my head by what I see in the casinos. However, at some point, for those that are good enough, it becomes a game of people played with cards.

Now that, was truly one of the more wise quotes I've seen on this forum. Hats off to you Moses, a rare, rare few will ever truly understand its depth.

I prefer spending my time scouting for something with a bigger advantage than worrying about the miniscule difference in counts.

Exactly, though I can't speak to what your definition of what "bigger advantage" is, I can say for certain that the tops on my list (Penetration, speed, rules, other advantage) are the true bread and butter of what I do. Not what count I use or whether its 6D or DD or SD. Once I find a truly advantageous game, then I develop the smoke screens, the "image", and develop the cover around me so I can test tolerance reasonably well before making a decision on my own longevity.

[Aslan]

I think this is the most appropriate quote I've ever read that describes counting hi/lo on a 6 deck game.

I kid you not, that is magical for how well it describes the game haha.

I played nothing but 6- and 8-deck for most of the beginning of my card counting at blackjack, owing to the fact that I was living on the east coast. It's much worse than Tthree made it out to be, and he made it out to be terrible. The roller coaster will try to whip your head right off your shoulders like a radical jihadist on a rampage. One needs more faith to be a shoe player than to be a Christian or an atheist. A card counter has his faith in a mathematical formula that you can see, and simulate, and snuggle up to, not an invisible Deity or lack thereof, but at times it will make you doubt what you know to be true.

Tthree was right when he said you lose more hands than you win even in a plus count, depending entirely on winning splits and doubles when they decide to appear and getting your fair share of naturals. Of this you can be sure, there are times when you lose nearly every max bet you put out, including splits and double downs, and naturals are scarcer than trees in the Sahara Desert, and there is no law prohibiting this from happening shoe after shoe after shoe ad nauseam. You get to the point where you know (you think you know) what's going to happen next, and I have discovered unscientifically but experientially that when you get to that point, you're cooked-- quit, take a vacation, get plenty of rest, get your mind on something else, because when it happens, it's better to let it happen in small doses, so that you do not lose your mind.

They say when you live with an insane person, you must be careful to keep enough distance so that you too do not become insane. Well, it's the same with counting 6- and 8-deck. When it turns really ugly, and the cards are acting insanely like a drunken schizophrenic, it's time to distance yourself. I truly believe that too much roller coaster whiplash affects one's ability to calmly and confidently play as planned, never pushing it, never steaming, never trying something different to break the seemingly endless train of bad beats. I must admit that one thing that drives me on through those unreal times is the belief that the long rum looms out there somewhere in the distance and I need to run there as fast as I can. But my experience is to make haste slowly. It will come, but you can't hurry it, and in fact, you can prolong it if you lose your grip.

I think KJ's hit and run approach is a helpful to weather the storms of shoe games. You are deliberately taking small doses for longevity's sake, but it also helps weather the bad beats. But even in small doses, if you do it every day, I suppose it will seem like all one long nightmare session when you hit a bad streak.

But I did not play for a living, and the prospect of moving from casino to casino did not appeal to me, although I tried it for some time. I enjoy playing Blackjack, and I enjoy the social aspect of the game, too, so I have always looked for ways to play-all and still stay in the win column and still stay under the radar. Eventually, I switched mostly to DD when in Vegas. It's nice to see those plus counts so much closer together, but it also requires a feel for camo that works without losing one's advantage if one wants to play more than an hour or two at a time. Not playing for a living gave me the advantage of not being pressed for time (time is money), and so I was able to play a more patient game as playing DD with camo requires.

[Mickey]

Angry? You should never get emotional about your play. Frustrated of course. When I was red chipping a small 10K BR not that long ago I won $3K and lost it back several times before getting an even luckier run. I say even luckier because had the loss came first it would have been much worse. When a sustained losing streak could easily wipe you out getting the win first should be recognized as the blessing it is. Of course I worked I thought I was really onto something with the winning streak and after losing went back to work trying to improve my game. I altered methods of true count calculation that made left no chance to forgetting my count and/or side count. I stopped playing tired and playing just because I showed up and didn't find good conditions. I took the time to learn when and where to find the conditions I was looking for. I figured out my biorhythms to find when I play at peak efficiency and when I am off some as the day progresses. I made sure I got food and drink to keep hydrated and my blood sugar at levels that didn't turn me into an idiot. I also learned more indices and RA indices to lower my N0 and RoR. I read each chapter of BJA3 again individually and made a trip to incorporate each improvement into my game. Finally a large uninterrupted steady gain of enough to get me green chipping. That was the biggest improvement, the better game available to a green chipper. One of the important things red chipping was the incentives that help offset expenses. As a green chipper they only got better. Red chipping I tried to combine playing with travel I was doing anyway. there was one low limit game I would travel to just for the game. When your EV is that small a huge part of success is limiting or eliminating the cost of expenses.

Excellent golden nuggets. Thank you.

[Exoter175]

I played nothing but 6- and 8-deck for most of the beginning of my card counting at blackjack, owing to the fact that I was living on the east coast. It's much worse than Tthree made it out to be, and he made it out to be terrible. The roller coaster will try to whip your head right off your shoulders like a radical jihadist on a rampage. One needs more faith to be a shoe player than to be a Christian or an atheist. A card counter has his faith in a mathematical formula that you can see, and simulate, and snuggle up to, not an invisible Deity or lack thereof, but at times it will make you doubt what you know to be true.

Tthree was right when he said you lose more hands than you win even in a plus count, depending entirely on winning splits and doubles when they decide to appear and getting your fair share of naturals. Of this you can be sure, there are times when you lose nearly every max bet you put out, including splits and double downs, and naturals are scarcer than trees in the Sahara Desert, and there is no law prohibiting this from happening shoe after shoe after shoe ad nauseam. You get to the point where you know (you think you know) what's going to happen next, and I have discovered unscientifically but experientially that when you get to that point, you're cooked-- quit, take a vacation, get plenty of rest, get your mind on something else, because when it happens, it's better to let it happen in small doses, so that you do not lose your mind.

They say when you live with an insane person, you must be careful to keep enough distance so that you too do not become insane. Well, it's the same with counting 6- and 8-deck. When it turns really ugly, and the cards are acting insanely like a drunken schizophrenic, it's time to distance yourself. I truly believe that too much roller coaster whiplash affects one's ability to calmly and confidently play as planned, never pushing it, never steaming, never trying something different to break the seemingly endless train of bad beats. I must admit that one thing that drives me on through those unreal times is the belief that the long rum looms out there somewhere in the distance and I need to run there as fast as I can. But my experience is to make haste slowly. It will come, but you can't hurry it, and in fact, you can prolong it if you lose your grip.

I'm doing pretty well handling the insanity of 6D and 4D games, but I don't think my intrepid nature could ever match up to the juggernaut that is 8D. I've seen a few of them and never sat down on one, and for good reason. I've heard of men disappearing into the desert atop a pale horse never to return from some of the damage that could be done on an 8D game. I think the only way I could ever stomach such a test is if such a game had a min value of $1-2 and a table max of $500 or more, and I don't believe such a game exists.

[Mickey]

Blackjack is a game of cards played by people...all sorts of different people. Those that employ math to it tend to hang around longer. Those that don't...well I just shake my head by what I see in the casinos. However, at some point, for those that are good enough, it becomes a game of people played with cards.

Excellenté!

[Aslan]

I'm doing pretty well handling the insanity of 6D and 4D games, but I don't think my intrepid nature could ever match up to the juggernaut that is 8D. I've seen a few of them and never sat down on one, and for good reason. I've heard of men disappearing into the desert atop a pale horse never to return from some of the damage that could be done on an 8D game. I think the only way I could ever stomach such a test is if such a game had a min value of $1-2 and a table max of $500 or more, and I don't believe such a game exists.

When I first began counting, the only games I could afford were 8-deck. They had $5 and $10 8-deck games in AC. Some had 75% and better pen back then, dealer dependent.

You had to wong out for bathroom breaks more so than in 6 or less deck games, and wonging in is another good skill to make the most of 8-deck. It's hard to find good things to say about 8-deck games, but one thing is that once you come to a plus count, it generally lasts longer than a plus count in a 6- or 4-deck game.

There is little room for camo in an 8-deck game. When the plus count came I would progressively ramp up to a max bet of 10X or 12X, when I probably should have been going to 15X or 20X, although my bankroll couldn't support the latter. Since that's a lot of money in a $5 or $10 dollar game, and a tall stack of reds, you generally have to leave after a long plus count, but I guess it is possible to stick around with camo for another shoe. I don't remember how I used to play it, it's been so long. I probably stayed sometimes thinking I was fooling anyone watching, when in reality what probably saved me was that they didn't surveil the $5 and $10 games. But that's how I cut my card counting teeth.

[Exoter175]

When I first began counting, the only games I could afford were 8-deck. They had $5 and $10 8-deck games in AC. Some had 75% and better pen back then, dealer dependent.

You had to wong out for bathroom breaks more so than in 6 or less deck games, and wonging in is another good skill to make the most of 8-deck. It's hard to find good things to say about 8-deck games, but one thing is that once you come to a plus count, it generally lasts longer than a plus count in a 6- or 4-deck game.

There is little room for camo in an 8-deck game. When the plus count came I would progressively ramp up to a max bet of 10X or 12X, when I probably should have been going to 15X or 20X, although my bankroll couldn't support the latter. Since that's a lot of money in a $5 or $10 dollar game, and a tall stack of reds, you generally have to leave after a long plus count, but I guess it is possible to stick around with camo for another shoe. I don't remember how I used to play it, it's been so long. I probably stayed sometimes thinking I was fooling anyone watching, when in reality what probably saved me was that they didn't surveil the $5 and $10 games. But that's how I cut my card counting teeth.

I feel like there's a kind of "coming of age" story to be told there learning the trade on 6/8D games and eventually developing to SD/DD games. Who knows. What I'm certain of, though, is that my developmental period permits me only to play shoe games until I've mastered every little detail of my game, and I know I am nowhere near close enough to that. So I'll probably go a year or two before ever taking a serious shot at SD/DD games. Though I play them occasionally if the right dealer is on the table. Gotta get the errors out of my game now on $5-15 tables before I ever move up!

[Aslan]

I feel like there's a kind of "coming of age" story to be told there learning the trade on 6/8D games and eventually developing to SD/DD games. Who knows. What I'm certain of, though, is that my developmental period permits me only to play shoe games until I've mastered every little detail of my game, and I know I am nowhere near close enough to that. So I'll probably go a year or two before ever taking a serious shot at SD/DD games. Though I play them occasionally if the right dealer is on the table. Gotta get the errors out of my game now on $5-15 tables before I ever move up!

It's more a matter of playing time, not calendar days or years, but I'm sure you factored that in.

Once I got started counting, being that I was retired, I went at it with a vengeance, playing every chance I had and for long hours, plus reporting back my trip experiences to BlackjackInfo.com to get feed back from the experts. Sometimes, I would report a win, only to find I shouldn't have been playing that game with it's particular rules and pen in the first place. That put a pin in my balloon, but it taught me to become more cognizant of game selection. Sometimes we can go off half-cocked thinking we are playing smart based on our winning, when in fact we are just setting ourselves up for a big loss in the future.

[stopgambling]

I truly believe that too much roller coaster whiplash affects one's ability to calmly and confidently play as planned, never pushing it, never steaming, never trying something different to break the seemingly endless train of bad beats. I must admit that one thing that drives me on through those unreal times is the belief that the long rum looms out there somewhere in the distance and I need to run there as fast as I can. But my experience is to make haste slowly. It will come, but you can't hurry it, and in fact, you can prolong it if you lose your grip.

Agreed cause we are just human.

Not playing for a living gave me the advantage of not being pressed for time (time is money), and so I was able to play a more patient game

The stress can affects one's game plan greatly.Good point . that is the reason so few can do it cause of the proper requirement to play full time.

[Exoter175]

It's more a matter of playing time, not calendar days or years, but I'm sure you factored that in.

Once I got started counting, being that I was retired, I went at it with a vengeance, playing every chance I had and for long hours, plus reporting back my trip experiences to BlackjackInfo.com to get feed back from the experts. Sometimes, I would report a win, only to find I shouldn't have been playing that game with it's particular rules and pen in the first place. That put a pin in my balloon, but it taught me to become more cognizant of game selection. Sometimes we can go off half-cocked thinking we are playing smart based on our winning, when in fact we are just setting ourselves up for a big loss in the future.

I'm giving "this game" the benefit of the doubt here, and my predecessors the credit they deserve by suggesting I have YEARS to go long before I could even suggest that I've mastered the BASIC aspects of this game. But that's also why I'm here, to gather insight from all of you so I can cut my learning curve down some, and learn what to expect so that I'm never truly bewildered by a string of bad occurrences.

Agreed cause we are just human.

Speak for yourself, I know first hand that T3 is an android disguised as a black woman.