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Thread: Cacarulo: Want to improve your Hi-Lo count?

  1. #1
    Cacarulo
    Guest

    Cacarulo: Want to improve your Hi-Lo count?

    Here is a way of improving your Hi-Lo system. The idea is to use a side count of 7's but without learning any new index number. So, you will still use Hi-Lo for playing purposes but your BC will improve from 0.969 to 0.984.
    This improvement means an almost 6% in SCORE for 6D.

    Now the method:

    1) For playing and insurance decisions use Hi-Lo.
    2) Keep a separate RC to accounting for the sevens. Start the IRC at -4 * #decks (for 2D you will start your side count at -8).
    3) Each time you see a seven add +1 to your Side RC. Another way would be to start your IRC at +8 and each time you see a seven substract +1.
    4) For betting you should multiply the Hi-Lo RC by 2 and add/substract the Side RC.
    5) With this RC' do the TC conversion as always.

    Basically, you should keep two running counts:

    HL_RC = Hi-Lo Running Count.
    SC_RC = Side-Count Running Count. This one started at IRC.
    DR = Decks Remaining

    For betting calculate RC'=HL_RC*2+SC_RC ==> TC=RC'/#DR

    The beauty of this system is that it is easier than keeping a side count of ACEs since you don't have to change any index while still having a little better SCORE.

    Here is the analysis for 6D,S17,DOA,DAS,SPA1,SPL3,NS,5/6,Catch-22:
    (I used my own simulator for running these sims).

    1) Hi-Lo (5,000 million rounds)

     
    play-all | rounds played = 100.00%
    spread ev/h sd/h ror% n0 di score ekb avb unit kelly
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    1 - 1 -0.317 11.610 100.00 0 0.00 0.00 10000.00 1.000 1.000 0.000
    1 - 2 0.057 15.753 13.53 7603857 0.36 0.13 4343.94 1.280 2.302 1.000
    1 - 3 0.431 20.907 13.53 235503 2.06 4.25 1014.61 1.561 9.856 1.000
    1 - 4 0.730 23.549 13.53 104045 3.10 9.61 759.58 1.673 13.165 1.000
    1 - 5 1.047 27.353 13.53 68272 3.83 14.65 714.69 1.824 13.992 1.000
    1 - 6 1.306 30.008 13.53 52798 4.35 18.94 689.52 1.921 14.503 1.000
    1 - 7 1.567 32.906 13.53 44122 4.76 22.66 691.19 2.024 14.468 1.000
    1 - 8 1.840 36.199 13.53 38723 5.08 25.83 712.31 2.144 14.039 1.000
    1 - 9 2.058 38.524 13.53 35045 5.34 28.54 721.17 2.223 13.866 1.000
    1 - 10 2.279 40.985 13.53 32344 5.56 30.92 737.09 2.307 13.567 1.000
    1 - 11 2.510 43.681 13.53 30296 5.75 33.01 760.30 2.400 13.153 1.000
    1 - 12 2.746 46.528 13.53 28701 5.90 34.84 788.24 2.500 12.687 1.000
    1 - 13 2.973 49.241 13.53 27428 6.04 36.46 815.50 2.594 12.262 1.000
    1 - 14 3.159 51.301 13.53 26376 6.16 37.91 833.16 2.663 12.002 1.000
    1 - 15 3.352 53.517 13.53 25491 6.26 39.23 854.44 2.737 11.704 1.000


    2) Hi-Lo + Side Count of 7's (5,000 million rounds)

     
    play-all | rounds played = 100.00%
    spread ev/h sd/h ror% n0 di score ekb avb unit kelly
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    1 - 1 -0.317 11.610 100.00 0 0.00 0.00 10000.00 1.000 1.000 0.000
    1 - 2 0.065 15.789 13.53 5838267 0.41 0.17 3814.97 1.284 2.621 1.000
    1 - 3 0.431 20.119 13.53 217631 2.14 4.59 938.59 1.517 10.654 1.000
    1 - 4 0.763 23.695 13.53 96479 3.22 10.36 736.01 1.670 13.587 1.000
    1 - 5 1.067 26.992 13.53 63972 3.95 15.63 682.71 1.800 14.648 1.000
    1 - 6 1.349 30.041 13.53 49555 4.49 20.18 668.74 1.913 14.953 1.000
    1 - 7 1.619 33.010 13.53 41552 4.91 24.07 672.89 2.021 14.861 1.000
    1 - 8 1.863 35.603 13.53 36504 5.23 27.39 680.22 2.111 14.701 1.000
    1 - 9 2.115 38.449 13.53 33046 5.50 30.26 698.94 2.211 14.307 1.000
    1 - 10 2.345 40.977 13.53 30532 5.72 32.75 716.01 2.298 13.966 1.000
    1 - 11 2.580 43.646 13.53 28628 5.91 34.93 738.46 2.390 13.542 1.000
    1 - 12 2.793 46.001 13.53 27131 6.07 36.86 757.70 2.470 13.198 1.000
    1 - 13 3.014 48.522 13.53 25924 6.21 38.57 781.25 2.556 12.800 1.000
    1 - 14 3.233 51.043 13.53 24934 6.33 40.11 805.98 2.642 12.407 1.000
    1 - 15 3.435 53.333 13.53 24105 6.44 41.49 828.03 2.720 12.077 1.000


    If anyone is interested in more details like betting patterns or Wonging figures just let me know.

    Sincerely,
    Cacarulo

  2. #2
    Zenfighter
    Guest

    Zenfighter: Re: Want to improve your Hi-Lo count?

    > Here is a way of improving your Hi-Lo
    > system. The idea is to use a side count of
    > 7's but without learning any new index
    > number. So, you will still use Hi-Lo for
    > playing purposes but your BC will improve
    > from 0.969 to 0.984.
    > This improvement means an almost 6% in
    > SCORE for 6D.
    > Now the method:
    > 1) For playing and insurance decisions use
    > Hi-Lo.
    > 2) Keep a separate RC to accounting for the
    > sevens. Start the IRC at -4 * #decks (for 2D
    > you will start your side count at -8).
    > 3) Each time you see a seven add +1 to your
    > Side RC. Another way would be to start your
    > IRC at +8 and each time you see a seven
    > substract +1.
    > 4) For betting you should multiply the Hi-Lo
    > RC by 2 and add/substract the Side RC.
    > 5) With this RC' do the TC conversion as
    > always.
    > Basically, you should keep two running
    > counts:
    > HL_RC = Hi-Lo Running Count.
    > SC_RC = Side-Count Running Count. This one
    > started at IRC.
    > DR = Decks Remaining
    > For betting calculate RC'=HL_RC*2+SC_RC
    > ==> TC=RC'/#DR
    > The beauty of this system is that it is
    > easier than keeping a side count of ACEs
    > since you don't have to change any index
    > while still having a little better SCORE.
    > Here is the analysis for
    > 6D,S17,DOA,DAS,SPA1,SPL3,NS,5/6,Catch-22:
    > (I used my own simulator for running these
    > sims).
    > 1) Hi-Lo (5,000 million rounds)
    > play-all | rounds played = 100.00%
    > spread ev/h sd/h ror% n0 di
    > score ekb avb unit kelly
    >
    > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    > 1 - 1 -0.317 11.610 100.00 0 0.00
    > 0.00 10000.00 1.000 1.000 0.000
    > 1 - 2 0.057 15.753 13.53 7603857 0.36
    > 0.13 4343.94 1.280 2.302 1.000
    > 1 - 3 0.431 20.907 13.53 235503 2.06
    > 4.25 1014.61 1.561 9.856 1.000
    > 1 - 4 0.730 23.549 13.53 104045 3.10
    > 9.61 759.58 1.673 13.165 1.000
    > 1 - 5 1.047 27.353 13.53 68272 3.83
    > 14.65 714.69 1.824 13.992 1.000
    > 1 - 6 1.306 30.008 13.53 52798 4.35
    > 18.94 689.52 1.921 14.503 1.000
    > 1 - 7 1.567 32.906 13.53 44122 4.76
    > 22.66 691.19 2.024 14.468 1.000
    > 1 - 8 1.840 36.199 13.53 38723 5.08
    > 25.83 712.31 2.144 14.039 1.000
    > 1 - 9 2.058 38.524 13.53 35045 5.34
    > 28.54 721.17 2.223 13.866 1.000
    > 1 - 10 2.279 40.985 13.53 32344 5.56
    > 30.92 737.09 2.307 13.567 1.000
    > 1 - 11 2.510 43.681 13.53 30296 5.75
    > 33.01 760.30 2.400 13.153 1.000
    > 1 - 12 2.746 46.528 13.53 28701 5.90
    > 34.84 788.24 2.500 12.687 1.000
    > 1 - 13 2.973 49.241 13.53 27428 6.04
    > 36.46 815.50 2.594 12.262 1.000
    > 1 - 14 3.159 51.301 13.53 26376 6.16
    > 37.91 833.16 2.663 12.002 1.000
    > 1 - 15 3.352 53.517 13.53 25491 6.26
    > 39.23 854.44 2.737 11.704 1.000
    >
    > 2) Hi-Lo + Side Count of 7's (5,000 million
    > rounds)
    > play-all | rounds played = 100.00%
    > spread ev/h sd/h ror% n0 di
    > score ekb avb unit kelly
    >
    > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    > 1 - 1 -0.317 11.610 100.00 0 0.00
    > 0.00 10000.00 1.000 1.000 0.000
    > 1 - 2 0.065 15.789 13.53 5838267 0.41
    > 0.17 3814.97 1.284 2.621 1.000
    > 1 - 3 0.431 20.119 13.53 217631 2.14
    > 4.59 938.59 1.517 10.654 1.000
    > 1 - 4 0.763 23.695 13.53 96479 3.22
    > 10.36 736.01 1.670 13.587 1.000
    > 1 - 5 1.067 26.992 13.53 63972 3.95
    > 15.63 682.71 1.800 14.648 1.000
    > 1 - 6 1.349 30.041 13.53 49555 4.49
    > 20.18 668.74 1.913 14.953 1.000
    > 1 - 7 1.619 33.010 13.53 41552 4.91
    > 24.07 672.89 2.021 14.861 1.000
    > 1 - 8 1.863 35.603 13.53 36504 5.23
    > 27.39 680.22 2.111 14.701 1.000
    > 1 - 9 2.115 38.449 13.53 33046 5.50
    > 30.26 698.94 2.211 14.307 1.000
    > 1 - 10 2.345 40.977 13.53 30532 5.72
    > 32.75 716.01 2.298 13.966 1.000
    > 1 - 11 2.580 43.646 13.53 28628 5.91
    > 34.93 738.46 2.390 13.542 1.000
    > 1 - 12 2.793 46.001 13.53 27131 6.07
    > 36.86 757.70 2.470 13.198 1.000
    > 1 - 13 3.014 48.522 13.53 25924 6.21
    > 38.57 781.25 2.556 12.800 1.000
    > 1 - 14 3.233 51.043 13.53 24934 6.33
    > 40.11 805.98 2.642 12.407 1.000
    > 1 - 15 3.435 53.333 13.53 24105 6.44
    > 41.49 828.03 2.720 12.077 1.000
    >
    > If anyone is interested in more details like
    > betting patterns or Wonging figures just let
    > me know.
    > Sincerely,
    > Cacarulo

    Out of a timid proposal, it seems to me,
    that a new system is born, thanks to an American mathematician who really puts up some competition
    to the two well known 'monsters' Wong's Halves and
    RPC, for dealing with 6dks. (Don has been using
    RPC for more than 20 years, guess why?).
    What really has amazed me, is the combination of
    simplicity with the few 'tricks' added, who makes
    the whole system a lot easier to employ it, than
    adjusting the RC to the excess/defect of 7s, which
    is obviously not so easy in the middle of the "battle".
    I've already paid my subscription to this site,
    by beeing able to have a hard copy of your post,
    take it for granted.

    Thanks and regards

    Z


  3. #3
    Cacarulo
    Guest

    Cacarulo: You're welcome! *NM*


  4. #4
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: Want to improve your Hi-Lo count?

    Wonderful work! But, I suggest that you repost this to the Main forum. It belongs there, as well.

    Don

  5. #5
    xxi
    Guest

    xxi: This is why I ponied up for Don's Domain!

    Thanks so much. This is exactly the kind of information I was hoping to get for my $50. With content like this, it'll be a bargain!

    > Here is a way of improving your Hi-Lo
    > system. The idea is to use a side count of
    > 7's but without learning any new index
    > number. So, you will still use Hi-Lo for

  6. #6
    Zenfighter
    Guest

    Zenfighter: Re: I have problems "Houston".

    > Here is a way of improving your Hi-Lo
    > system. The idea is to use a side count of
    > 7's but without learning any new index
    > number. So, you will still use Hi-Lo for
    > playing purposes but your BC will improve
    > from 0.969 to 0.984.
    > This improvement means an almost 6% in
    > SCORE for 6D.
    > Now the method:
    > 1) For playing and insurance decisions use
    > Hi-Lo.
    > 2) Keep a separate RC to accounting for the
    > sevens. Start the IRC at -4 * #decks (for 2D
    > you will start your side count at -8).
    > 3) Each time you see a seven add +1 to your
    > Side RC. Another way would be to start your
    > IRC at +8 and each time you see a seven
    > substract +1.
    > 4) For betting you should multiply the Hi-Lo
    > RC by 2 and add/substract the Side RC.
    > 5) With this RC' do the TC conversion as
    > always.
    > Basically, you should keep two running
    > counts:
    > HL_RC = Hi-Lo Running Count.
    > SC_RC = Side-Count Running Count. This one
    > started at IRC.
    > DR = Decks Remaining
    > For betting calculate RC'=HL_RC*2+SC_RC
    > ==> TC=RC'/#DR
    > The beauty of this system is that it is
    > easier than keeping a side count of ACEs
    > since you don't have to change any index
    > while still having a little better SCORE.
    > Here is the analysis for
    > 6D,S17,DOA,DAS,SPA1,SPL3,NS,5/6,Catch-22:
    > (I used my own simulator for running these
    > sims).
    > 1) Hi-Lo (5,000 million rounds)
    > play-all | rounds played = 100.00%
    > spread ev/h sd/h ror% n0 di
    > score ekb avb unit kelly
    >
    > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    > 1 - 1 -0.317 11.610 100.00 0 0.00
    > 0.00 10000.00 1.000 1.000 0.000
    > 1 - 2 0.057 15.753 13.53 7603857 0.36
    > 0.13 4343.94 1.280 2.302 1.000
    > 1 - 3 0.431 20.907 13.53 235503 2.06
    > 4.25 1014.61 1.561 9.856 1.000
    > 1 - 4 0.730 23.549 13.53 104045 3.10
    > 9.61 759.58 1.673 13.165 1.000
    > 1 - 5 1.047 27.353 13.53 68272 3.83
    > 14.65 714.69 1.824 13.992 1.000
    > 1 - 6 1.306 30.008 13.53 52798 4.35
    > 18.94 689.52 1.921 14.503 1.000
    > 1 - 7 1.567 32.906 13.53 44122 4.76
    > 22.66 691.19 2.024 14.468 1.000
    > 1 - 8 1.840 36.199 13.53 38723 5.08
    > 25.83 712.31 2.144 14.039 1.000
    > 1 - 9 2.058 38.524 13.53 35045 5.34
    > 28.54 721.17 2.223 13.866 1.000
    > 1 - 10 2.279 40.985 13.53 32344 5.56
    > 30.92 737.09 2.307 13.567 1.000
    > 1 - 11 2.510 43.681 13.53 30296 5.75
    > 33.01 760.30 2.400 13.153 1.000
    > 1 - 12 2.746 46.528 13.53 28701 5.90
    > 34.84 788.24 2.500 12.687 1.000
    > 1 - 13 2.973 49.241 13.53 27428 6.04
    > 36.46 815.50 2.594 12.262 1.000
    > 1 - 14 3.159 51.301 13.53 26376 6.16
    > 37.91 833.16 2.663 12.002 1.000
    > 1 - 15 3.352 53.517 13.53 25491 6.26
    > 39.23 854.44 2.737 11.704 1.000
    >
    > 2) Hi-Lo + Side Count of 7's (5,000 million
    > rounds)
    > play-all | rounds played = 100.00%
    > spread ev/h sd/h ror% n0 di
    > score ekb avb unit kelly
    >
    > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    > 1 - 1 -0.317 11.610 100.00 0 0.00
    > 0.00 10000.00 1.000 1.000 0.000
    > 1 - 2 0.065 15.789 13.53 5838267 0.41
    > 0.17 3814.97 1.284 2.621 1.000
    > 1 - 3 0.431 20.119 13.53 217631 2.14
    > 4.59 938.59 1.517 10.654 1.000
    > 1 - 4 0.763 23.695 13.53 96479 3.22
    > 10.36 736.01 1.670 13.587 1.000
    > 1 - 5 1.067 26.992 13.53 63972 3.95
    > 15.63 682.71 1.800 14.648 1.000
    > 1 - 6 1.349 30.041 13.53 49555 4.49
    > 20.18 668.74 1.913 14.953 1.000
    > 1 - 7 1.619 33.010 13.53 41552 4.91
    > 24.07 672.89 2.021 14.861 1.000
    > 1 - 8 1.863 35.603 13.53 36504 5.23
    > 27.39 680.22 2.111 14.701 1.000
    > 1 - 9 2.115 38.449 13.53 33046 5.50
    > 30.26 698.94 2.211 14.307 1.000
    > 1 - 10 2.345 40.977 13.53 30532 5.72
    > 32.75 716.01 2.298 13.966 1.000
    > 1 - 11 2.580 43.646 13.53 28628 5.91
    > 34.93 738.46 2.390 13.542 1.000
    > 1 - 12 2.793 46.001 13.53 27131 6.07
    > 36.86 757.70 2.470 13.198 1.000
    > 1 - 13 3.014 48.522 13.53 25924 6.21
    > 38.57 781.25 2.556 12.800 1.000
    > 1 - 14 3.233 51.043 13.53 24934 6.33
    > 40.11 805.98 2.642 12.407 1.000
    > 1 - 15 3.435 53.333 13.53 24105 6.44
    > 41.49 828.03 2.720 12.077 1.000
    >
    > If anyone is interested in more details like
    > betting patterns or Wonging figures just let
    > me know.
    > Sincerely,
    > Cacarulo

    Yesterday, after reading your post, I was working
    a little bit on this High-Low/7s again, and have
    founded the following:

    1)The average absolute effect of the High-Low
    cards is .517 (assuming LV Strip rules). Being
    the betting effect of the 7 = .28, thats mean a
    7 behaves himself like a .5416 of a total HL point. So rounding down to .5000 makes sense, or in plain English, the removal of 2 sevens equals an average HL card.

    2) When trying to apply your formula for estimating the final TC, compare to the traditional method of estimating excess/defect and adjusting the TC there-after, I have founded discrepancies between both methods or there is something I'm doing wrong, obviously. Examples:

    Cards delt out 156; RC=9; 7s out=16

    a)9 + 4/2 = 11 therefore TC = 3.66
    b)9* 2 = 18 - (24-16) = 10 therefore TC = 3.33

    Same with 14 7s out

    a)9 + 2/2 = 10 => TC = 3.33
    b)9*2 = 18 - (24-14) = 8 => TC = 2.67

    What the hell is this, or what am I doing wrong?
    I really appreciate your time and willingness
    to help others.
    Regards
    Z

  7. #7
    Cacarulo
    Guest

    Cacarulo: Re: I have problems "Houston".

    > Yesterday, after reading your post, I was
    > working
    > a little bit on this High-Low/7s again, and
    > have
    > founded the following:

    > 1)The average absolute effect of the
    > High-Low
    > cards is .517 (assuming LV Strip rules).
    > Being
    > the betting effect of the 7 = .28, thats
    > mean a
    > 7 behaves himself like a .5416 of a total HL
    > point. So rounding down to .5000 makes
    > sense, or in plain English, the removal of 2
    > sevens equals an average HL card.

    > 2) When trying to apply your formula for
    > estimating the final TC, compare to the
    > traditional method of estimating
    > excess/defect and adjusting the TC
    > there-after, I have founded discrepancies
    > between both methods or there is something
    > I'm doing wrong, obviously. Examples:

    > Cards delt out 156; RC=9; 7s out=16

    > a)9 + 4/2 = 11 therefore TC = 3.66
    > b)9* 2 = 18 - (24-16) = 10 therefore TC =
    > 3.33

    > Same with 14 7s out

    > a)9 + 2/2 = 10 => TC = 3.33
    > b)9*2 = 18 - (24-14) = 8 => TC = 2.67

    > What the hell is this, or what am I doing
    > wrong?

    I don't understand what you are doing with the excess/defect of 7s. The system I'm proposing can be seen as follows:

    1) For playing: -1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 -1 (primary count)
    2) For betting: -2 2 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 -2 (secondary count)

    In fact you'll be betting with an unbalanced sytem. The imbalance in this case is +4*# of decks. Note that 2) is twice the hi-lo count plus the side count of sevens adjusted for the imbalance.
    Your point b) is correctly calculated and it's the modern way of dealing with unbalanced systems.

    Don't know if this helps. If not just let me know.

    Sincerely,
    Cacarulo

  8. #8
    Zenfighter
    Guest

    Zenfighter: Re: Not so many now

    > I don't understand what you are doing with
    > the excess/defect of 7s. The system I'm
    > proposing can be seen as follows:

    > 1) For playing: -1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 -1
    > (primary count)
    > 2) For betting: -2 2 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 -2
    > (secondary count)

    > In fact you'll be betting with an unbalanced
    > sytem. The imbalance in this case is +4*# of
    > decks. Note that 2) is twice the hi-lo count
    > plus the side count of sevens adjusted for
    > the imbalance.
    > Your point b) is correctly calculated and
    > it's the modern way of dealing with
    > unbalanced systems.

    > Don't know if this helps. If not just let me
    > know.

    > Sincerely,
    > Cacarulo

    What I'm doing with system a)is this:

    1)Keep a separate count of 7s

    2)Before betting, compare this count to the mean
    or average number of 7s that 'should' be on the discards. In our example above, with 16 out of a
    mean of only 12 (3 packs), we have a surplus of +4 7s out of the shoe. Dividing by 2 to adjust
    for the average effect of a HL point and we get
    2. This +2 is then incorporated to the HL count
    in order to compensate a little bit the natural
    tendency of the High-Low point count to over or under estimate the true advantage due to his
    blindness regarding 7s.

    3)Get your TC and bet as usual.

    4)A lot of 7s to be played yet, can help us to be
    not so optimistics, on the other hand.

    I have understood your explanation about unbalanced counts quite well, if you find something wrong with the a) procedure don't
    hesitate for a moment to tell me, please.

    Thanks for your response
    Z

  9. #9
    williwong21
    Guest

    williwong21: Cacarulo

    A quick question pops up for me.If I chose HiLo because of lack of mental drain while wonging shoes,why would I now incorporate an additional side count?Wouldn't a levell 2 count with no sides have a better BC?Or is this for someone who already uses HiLO and doesn't want to bother switching?Willi.

  10. #10
    Cacarulo
    Guest

    Cacarulo: Re: Not so many now

    > I have understood your explanation about
    > unbalanced counts quite well, if you find
    > something wrong with the a) procedure don't
    > hesitate for a moment to tell me, please.

    Aparently nothing is wrong. However, I can't reconcile the difference in TC. It seems that the methods are not equivalent.

    Sincerely,
    Cacarulo

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