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Thread: Told ya so!

  1. #1
    Senior Member Tarzan's Avatar
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    Told ya so!

    I guess the casinos failing in AC and dropping like dominoes should have come to me way back when (or talked to any one of us for that matter) to save their sorry, greedy butts from extinction. A post I wrote in 2011 sometime as follows:

    Table game players are flocking to PA casinos for the better blackjack rules. There is no such thing as H17 in PA. You have a surrender option in PA. This is cut and dry, plain and simple. Meanwhile, AC casino's "think tank we are so spiffy dept." are wondering why they are losing table game players and are possibly totally clueless as to why this is happening. Allow me to help you out and give you a big hint. The competition right next door is offering a good game of blackjack in which the player's money lasts a bit longer. Okay, picture me in your boardroom doing a powerpoint presentation. It will go as follows with having some cool photos and some of the bullet points on the slide presentation as follows:

    -Your game of blackjack licks sweaty rhinocerous balls compared to theirs.

    -You wanted more money so introduced a higher "gouge" on the customers to clean them out faster. You wanted to bang 5-10% instead of just 2%.

    -You assumed that 100% of your patrons were too stupid to figure out that H17 was not beneficial to them.

    -You figured that other casinos offering a surrender option at their blackjack tables would not lure your customers away.

    -2% of a huge volume of money cycling along steadily adds up to a lot more than 10% of ZERO volume of money cycling along.

    -Even if you pump it up to a whopping 20% house advantage on a ZERO volume of business, the competitor doing the huge volume of business making the steady 2% still wins out and is more profitable, amazingly enough!

    -(Slide presentation shows blackjack table full of players) Please make observations of this blackjack table in Pennsylvania.

    -(Next slide presentation photo shows a blackjack table with a dealer standing there by himself admiring the architecture) Please take note of this typical Atlantic City blackjack table and tell me if you notice any unusual differences between the two.
    This assumption that all recreational players don't understand the ramifications of hard and fast rules, such as H17, 6:5, lack of surrender, etc. is wrong. Many of them do. Players converse with one another and are internet savvy. Anyone that plays blackjack overhears the various conversations at the table and every so often someone makes very valid points on house edge, favorable vs. unfavorable rules (right along with all the other various blackjack related conversations that are often erroneous). Obviously you were not paying attention during the powerpoint presentation... are you a casino employee?

    The other assumption is that card-counters are making any considerable "hit" on the casinos. Most novice card-counters fail miserably, making the casinos lots of money and even the most formidable counters are only taking the "scraps" at best. Casinos spend 10 times or more the money to attempt to thwart card-counters than what the card-counters take. Card-counters are not the threat. The casinos true threat is the threat they are to themselves with greed and paranoia. Despite any card-counters in PA casinos (who are groveling for scraps and affect little), they are hauling it in, doing a huge volume of business while AC casinos are shutting down entire pits, laying off dealers. Jack up the house edge all you want but 5% of zero= ZERO, 10% profit on zero= ZERO and this is an amazing fact to have in a powerpoint presentation because most don't understand this but... even a 50% profit on zero STILL= ZERO!


    Greed causes them to jack up the rules to make a higher percentage of profit but if your gross volume of business declines drastically due to the rule changes, this backfires and they destroy their profit margins. Paranoia causes them to not only spend huge amounts of money (more than they could possibly ever lose to counters) on countermeasures but to also cause encumbrances on the game itself that affect all players.

    Keep in mind that maybe 1% of blackjack players out there are card-counters. Of those, only a tiny percentage of this group is actually successful in the long run. So when you babble about the handful of guys that actually turned a profit for the year in the casinos, try to think of what a tiny and insignificant amount of money this truly is in comparison to the volume of money the casinos generate. Also think of the number of novice card-counters that outnumber them 100 to 1 that lost horribly and are finding out the hard way that being an AP is not an easy task. This means that "it all comes out in the wash" and that casinos in fact make money from card-counters on the whole! Countermeasures? Are you kidding me? Welcome them with open arms!

    Customers will already be lured away over geographical convenience, as was pointed out. To have a horrible game that is not competitive in addition to this sweetens the deal and insures your demise. This will lure away additional gamblers that lack any geographical convenience by going to PA casinos and will travel farther away in order to enjoy a better game.
    Last edited by Tarzan; 09-10-2014 at 05:13 PM.

  2. #2
    Senior Member Tarzan's Avatar
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    When PA was opening up and offering better games in AC, Trump Plaza chose to remove all 6D, S17 games and replace them with 8D, H17 games across the board to offset this loss of business by increasing the house edge. There was no longer such a thing as a 6D, S17 blackjack game in Trump Plaza. Instead of it going the way the masterminds behind this incredibly stupid maneuver intended to help the bottom line it hurt things by chasing off any die-hard loyal players to PA where the grass was truly greener on the other side! Now they will be closed in a few days from making all the wrong decisions when it came to competing with the proliferation of casinos in neighboring states. Adios Trump Plaza... I guess you should have read that post of mine back in 2011! Had you listened to me it's likely that you'd still be around for a long time to come. The casino patrons missed the memo and you missed the powerpoint presentation.

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    I get what your saying but 8D H17 is not the reason 4 casinos are closing in AC. AC does not have a monopoly on gambling in that area anymore and its inevitable that the market would need to consolidate over time, regardless of how good their blackjack rules were. They could all switch to 2D S17 and I think they would be facing the same fate.

  4. #4
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    AC was lucky to last as long as it did. They made money (not counting Trumps’ casinos) because the closest competition was in the islands. In the decades it took for neighboring states to go through the legal machinations to approve casinos, they should have built a go-to paradise that no one else could match. Afterall, they have real ocean beaches and a moderate climate -- not a fake beach in the desert. They had the money and they had the time. But, they just sat on their hands, and counted money without any rational thought toward the inevitable future.

    I’ve always enjoyed the thought of visiting Vegas (not always enjoyed the results). I was in AC the day Resorts opened, and there so many, many other visits. But, I never liked the dump of a city. I never really thought of it as a city.
    Last edited by Norm; 09-10-2014 at 05:54 PM.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by mjbballar23 View Post
    I get what your saying but 8D H17 is not the reason 4 casinos are closing in AC. AC does not have a monopoly on gambling in that area anymore and its inevitable that the market would need to consolidate over time, regardless of how good their blackjack rules were. They could all switch to 2D S17 and I think they would be facing the same fate.
    MJB,

    Come to think of it that is what I will be playing this weekend, S-17, DD, and killer 6D, , and my wife will be playing HI-Denom 9/6 JOB, as well as WHA, so the BJ brings us both in.

    O

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ouchez View Post
    MJB,

    Come to think of it that is what I will be playing this weekend, S-17, DD, and killer 6D, , and my wife will be playing HI-Denom 9/6 JOB, as well as WHA, so the BJ brings us both in.

    O
    If I'm a casino owner, bringing in a bunch of couples like Mr and Mrs Ouchez is not going to end well for me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mjbballar23 View Post
    If I'm a casino owner, bringing in a bunch of couples like Mr and Mrs Ouchez is not going to end well for me.
    Yeah, but having Mr and Mrs Ouchez telling their acquaintances that your casino sucks and your games are too tight to win at isn't going to go very well, either.
    May the cards fall in your favor.

  8. #8
    Senior Member bigplayer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tarzan View Post
    Table game players are flocking to PA casinos for the better blackjack rules.
    No, they aren't (at least mainly). They're flocking to PA casinos because they are closer to home.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by bigplayer View Post
    No, they aren't (at least mainly). They're flocking to PA casinos because they are closer to home.

    I ditto that. It's especially true about Mohegan Sun Casino in Wilks-Berre, PA. The local folks packed its bj tables eventhough dealers shuffled cards every round continuously with CSMs! I kid you not.
    Last edited by Adrianno; 09-11-2014 at 02:44 PM.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tarzan View Post
    When PA was opening up and offering better games in AC, Trump Plaza chose to remove all 6D, S17 games and replace them with 8D, H17 games across the board to offset this loss of business by increasing the house edge. There was no longer such a thing as a 6D, S17 blackjack game in Trump Plaza. Instead of it going the way the masterminds behind this incredibly stupid maneuver intended to help the bottom line it hurt things by chasing off any die-hard loyal players to PA where the grass was truly greener on the other side! Now they will be closed in a few days from making all the wrong decisions when it came to competing with the proliferation of casinos in neighboring states. Adios Trump Plaza... I guess you should have read that post of mine back in 2011! Had you listened to me it's likely that you'd still be around for a long time to come. The casino patrons missed the memo and you missed the powerpoint presentation.
    Maybe you ought to call up the Trump Plaza BJ pit on a random phone line (not yours) before they close their doors to tell'em what you think. Give them a nice farewell. It would be nice if casinos openly welcomed card counters, but I still don't think it would turn the situation around in AC even if the casinos there did such a thing or reduced their countermeasures on BJ games to give the players a slightly better game. The casinos that are closing in AC seem to be failing in more than one area of their business model, and no matter how great the BJ rules are or are not isn't going to be enough to keep the lights turned on at the end of the day.

    What is the job market like in the surrounding areas of AC besides for the casino industry? Is it healthy or has it been cored out like an apple? When times get tight entertainment gets put on the back burner.

  11. #11
    Senior Member Tarzan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigplayer View Post
    No, they aren't (at least mainly). They're flocking to PA casinos because they are closer to home.
    I live practically right next to AC and will drive into PA over playing in AC any day of the week! I didn't ask all those other players that I've seen and recognized from AC casinos in PA if they were from Jersey or not though. I do know that tables in NJ have emptied out and tables in PA have filled up. Some of them appear to be "New Yawkers" from the way they talk. Many just happen to be closer to home as you said but many like me and those New Yawkers are clearly not from PA.

    It might be a lot like Norm says and instead of stuffing quite as much in their pockets when the haul was juicy over those 27 years or so of exponential gains in revenue, they should have put a sliver of that into making AC more of a destination of choice competitive with budding markets, starting on that project long ago. They could call it the "lipstick on a pig program", maybe the "lipstick on a pig revitalization project" or something like that.

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    When I went to AC for AP mentoring and interaction I rarely played any b;ackjack there. I played plenty on the way there and the way home. When my high rolling ploppy buddies and I go to a casino it must have great BJ rules and high odds in craps. Some cared about 1 and others cared about another and some went wherever the others wanted to go because all destinations offered the same thing at their game. It wasn't long before the ones that didn't care got used to the new destinations and considered them their preferred destination.

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    Reading the OP and some of your responses, one would think casinos make all their money from BJ and better BJ rules would be the answer to survival. I play in the Mid West and all the games here are H17 and no surrender.

    it is ego and conceit to think that all these casinos are dumb, a simple answer is looser BJ rules. Highly educated folks with bunch of studies make the decisions and while some BJ players might be making a long trek to PA, slot players and crap players and other ploppies go to places easier to get to.

    stop thinking everyone of these corporate decision makers are dumb. They all probably make a lot more money than you do.

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