The cost of this commute can be devastating trip EV and ROROriginally Posted by smallcapgrowth
Depends on what your average hourly win rate is. For red chippers it aint worth it. At higher levels two or three hundred dollars for gas can easily be overcome.
"I think, therfore I can't play blackjack."
Arnold Snyder, Blackbelt in Blackjack pg. 229 (2005)
Road trips are great in areas where there are lots of casinos, but most of the time it's more cost-effective to fly, depending on your stakes. It's important not to let the immediate "savings" fool you when you lose far more in opportunity cost in the process. For example, not long ago I booked a trip to Vegas a day later than I had originally planned because I noticed a deal that would save me around $75 on the first leg of the flight by arriving a day later. Well, suffice it to say, I don't travel to Vegas to make $75 a day. I don't go to Vegas to make $75 an hour. My "savings" ended up costing me a half day of work, which is far, far more valuable than saving a few bucks on airfare. The same goes for direct flights vs flights with a layover. If I plan on playing on the day I arrive in town, I take this into consideration when choosing flights. An extra $100 or even $200 is nothing when compared to the EV of a good game (which is ostensibly why I'm getting on a plane in the first place!).
I couldn't agree more. We used to have a teammate that always wanted the cheapest flight regardless of the time or layovers. We had to drill in his head that arriving to town fresh and getting in half a day of play was more important. Missing a connection can literally cost thousands!
The ratio for EV vs penny saved on expenses is probably over 2 TO 1. The money saved can be looked at as income so to overcome that income BJ needs to earn over twice as much because of risk. However, if one looks at any play as time off of your longevity then the ratio may need to be higher, but that's subjective.
Examples:
$300 in expense savings vs $550 in EV I'll take the savings
$300 in expense savings vs $650 in EV I'll take the play
$300 in expense savings vs $600 in EV I'll take the savings and less exposure
There has to be some thought put into this. I don't think any would give up $300 in savings to make $360 in EV over 6 hours?
Last edited by blackjack avenger; 10-01-2012 at 02:44 AM.
i just got screwed, my flight got cancled so i lose a half of day of playing. I was supposed to land in vegas today at 1 pm now not going to land till about 9pm. I got the airlines to issue me 200 dollars in airline vochours for the incovience and got bumped to first class (tried to get more in vouchers but when she said all i could do is 200 i said how bout first class then)
I agree the cost of car chosen and its stated fuel efficiency can make a huge difference in costs.
The IRS estimate for car costs is 55.5 cents per mile. A newer car has large mileage depreciation. An older car has large upkeep costs with a loss in fuel efficiency. The off the lot depreciation will be high but the later immediate maintenance costs can be hard on a small bankroll. The fuel efficiency rates may not hold true in the real world. One hopes a car can last 150,000 miles before major costs outstrip value of vehicle. Savings can be found in self maintenance or purchasing a used car with few miles. In accounting practice I believe one rounds up expenses so 55.5 to 60 cents is probably prudent. Of course I also don't recommend playing BJ with a ROR. When considering a driving trip its easy to determine an approx car cost of 50, 55 or 60 cents per mile.
Last edited by blackjack avenger; 10-01-2012 at 03:07 AM.
Avenger, what is your opinion of renting an economic auto vs. driving one's own economic auto (assume both the rental and owner's car get the same gas mileage)?I agree the cost of car chosen and its stated fuel efficiency can make a huge difference in costs.
The IRS estimate for car costs is 55.5 cents per mile. A newer car has large mileage depreciation. An older car has large upkeep costs with a loss in fuel efficiency. The off the lot depreciation will be high but the later immediate maintenance costs can be hard on a small bankroll. The fuel efficiency rates may not hold true in the real world. One hopes a car can last 150,000 miles before major costs outstrip value of vehicle. Savings can be found in self maintenance or purchasing a used car with few miles. In accounting practice I believe one rounds up expenses so 55.5 to 60 cents is probably prudent. Of course I also don't recommend playing BJ with a ROR
Many people I know, rent an economical auto to reduce maintenance costs on their auto, especially on longer driving trips.
Let's use an example:
500 mile trip
IRS numbers are 55.5 cents per mile car expense of $277.50. I see no problem with adjusting the cost to $250 for an older car or up to $300 for a newer car. So if you can have total rental car costs below these numbers. It may be a good move
I think the issue is many don't think cars are that expensive, but have to remember its every penny you spend involved with the car.
Last edited by blackjack avenger; 10-02-2012 at 10:11 PM.
One marginally related point related to vehicle expenses...
Several years ago, I had full coverage insurance with a $500 deductible. I always had well more than that available and losing $500 or $1k would certainly not cause any real hardship, so I checked the price with a $1k deductible. Switching saved me $200 every 6 months. So on average, if I make a claim less than once ever 15 months, I'm better off with the $1k deductible. If your car's value is small relative to your bankroll, it might make sense to drop collision entirely, and maybe comprehensive too. At the very least, any AP should have enough funds on hand to price out a higher deductible than what you currently have. Compare the savings to the difference in deductible to see what your payback period is. You're betting on how long it will be until your next claim, so if the payback timeframe is short, your savings on your premium will be more than the extra out of pocket costs next time you have a claim.
/hijack
50-90 cents for depreciation?? What do you drive? After just 100k miles, that's $50-90,000 just for depreciation! I'm looking at economy cars that depreciate much less, at around 10 cents/mile or slightly more. Fuel is 10-12 cents per mile for many new cars, and maintenance and repairs shouldn't be worse than 6-8 cents per mile over the first 100k (this is an average, some people are lucky, some are not), maybe more for something older. When comparing renting vs. driving your own car for a trip, you can ignore the insurance and tags, since they cost the same whether you drive 500 more miles this year or not. So if the rental gets the same fuel mileage as your car, you need the rental to be cheaper than the expected depreciation for your car, which is probably 10-20 cents/mile for most people, plus maintenance and repairs, which might be another 6-12 cents/mile.
Being in a rental has some additional value if you are identified as a threat, since any license plate or car description/pictures won't be your own vehicle, but many people have still been identified by the casino calling the rental company.
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