How Does a blackjack comeback look like?

[Three]

Are you kidding? CVCX shows that with this spread in the worst of games ur still making about 30$/hr. How isnt that enough? 10 minutes of play covers my gas expense.

As it seems you are finding out having an EV of $30/hr doesn't mean you will make $30 in an hour. How many hours did you put in and what was your total earnings?

[Three]

Game selection again is difficult because of geography as well as low bankroll. A store with good rules will be one that requires a solid act and cover, something my bankroll isn't in the state of supporting.

There is more to game selection than just rules and pen.

[Three]

Dealer mistakes and crowding are also factors to be considered. Dealer mistakes and player options can make flat betting plus EV.

[ZeeBabar]

Dealer mistakes and crowding are also factors to be considered. Dealer mistakes and player options can make flat betting plus EV.

Great, now you are not revealing your own system, you do not play BJ, you know the keys to beating 6:5 BJ and you make $$$ flat betting but you don't reveal how and you are on this forum to guide newbies.

[Three]

Don't you love it how people show they speak from a clueless perspective when they have no idea what you play and don't play but they tell you anyway. I know almost every AP play. I play the best opportunity when I get to the casino. Blackjack is ubiquitous so most of the time it is BJ. Other opportunities rely on certain conditions being met or certain availability of games that are not usually available. Some are always there but not worth much. Others may happen once in a blue moon.

Pretty much everyone knows what conditions makes 6:5 pitch games playable. It requires a big BR when you find it. I never said I make money flat betting in this thread but I did find situations in BJ that the best play was flat betting my max bet. There was more money in the special circumstance than there was in counting. You didn't want to have a small bet out when things hit for the other opportunity so bet fluctuation with the count only hurt me. My guide to newbies is pay attention to unusual opportunities. On a computer they never happen but we play in a casino. There it happens often enough you are a fool not to be paying attention to everything.

Here are a few I have had:
1) Dealer brought in when normally deals baccarat due to staff shortage. The dealer cut off like 13 cards and dealt a round after the cut card came out.
2) Dealer was a craps dealer. He counted the A as one or 11 for the player but always counted it as 11 for the dealer. He was busting with an ace all night.
3) When I surrendered dealer would push back half my bet and leave the other half in the circle. Dealer also paid blackjack pay on splits the ended a TA or AT. Dealer couldn't add to save her life (that is a common one everywhere). Dealer let me surrender after splitting.
4) Dealer paying a side bet wrong because they keep rotating dealers from game to game and the dealer didn't know what side bet payoff for the game was.
5) Dealer messed up side bet pay but only for certain denomination chips.
6) Dealer is helpful keeping others off the table when I want them to not come in (wouldn't change money and pushed bets back if they had chips).
7) On a misdeal the dealer doesn't call the floor until the hand has progressed enough to give me the best option.
8) Dealer informs me he can do a courtesy shuffle without calling the Floor under certain circumstances. The circumstances always seem to happen when I wanted a shuffle.
9) Dealer doesn't take my match play after a win when I have a big stack of matchplays.
10) I noticed a mini-baccarat dealer that payed the Banker bet on a Dragon7 instead of pushing the bet. That made the banker bet have a nice player edge. They eventually fixed the dealer as they usually do, but I got a lot of advantage play in while it lasted.
+) There are lots more that I am sure you are all aware of. Understanding what systematic dealer errors are worth can tell you what your edge is. If it is high enough you should just flat bet your max bet. Just pay attention. Sometimes the most profitable time spent in the casino is when you are observing things rather than playing. Of course you need to use your observations to make money with them.


Sometimes you come across games with the wrong payables of side bets. The casino got that cleared with gaming and either has to deal the side bet with the wrong payoff or not offer the side bet once they notice their mistake. It can take quite a while to change things with gaming in some jurisdictions.

New games are often not analyzed properly or the casinos failed to listen to the patent holders recommendations about how to deal the game. Sometimes the recommendations they ignore are about vulnerabilities but the patent holder didn't explain why he made the recommendations. I am taking about recommendations not how the game was directed to be dealt. Analyze the game yourself. Look for procedural vulnerabilities.

Of course I left some off because they should not be discussed in an open forum.

[refinery]

So is no one going to tell Dalmation he likely has major holes in his game?

[Stealth]

In theory, you are right. The reality is when a $1000 daily loss turns into $5000. The bill collectors don't care about high variance. They don't care about EV.

Then you are playing with a bankroll too small for your bets and with too much risk.

Doing the wrong thing while playing because you did the wrong thing to start is not a good program.

[Freightman]

Thanks but I have no idea what they could possibly be? Also, I made money last year playing way more hours and I was a weaker player. Im trying to attend the bootcamp in October. I have a special red shirt I gonna wear to the event that has 3SD written on it.

Get 2. One with -3sd (red), the other in green, 3sd. Been at both.

[Stealth]

And also, it doesn't matter because the store is very tolerant.

If it is the store I think I have played there several times, it is slowly becoming less tolerant.

Not being able to play = ZERO EV. Tolerance is very high until it is immediatly gone.

Consider that a bad game with tolerance may by better than a god game with heat.

Re-look at your betting to improve your EV. Go to max bet earlier.

Betting in dead lockstep with the count is the fastest way to back off.

Read Burning the Tables, Anderson.

PM me if you want to talk.

Stealth

[Stealth]

Hi Stealth, I read his spread as 1-20 or 1-40 depending on his minimum bet. What would be considered a non-anemic bet spread for a 6D game?

Spread is not just about range. It is also about when you are betting.

I am guessing but I believe the game he is playing is 6d h17 das 75% pen in reasonablly tolerant environment. He should be at his max bet at TC3 not 4. He will only see about 12-14 rounds per shoe that are at TC 2 or higher. His opportunites are small and likely even less on crowded tables.

He indicated he is aggressively wonging which is mandantory in this game. He should be out at least 40% of round below TC-1.

He indicated that his game was good, and I would ask how do you know. How do you ever know how many errors you made, especially TC errors. Took insurance at TC2 because you thought it was TC 3. You get my point. A few of these at max bets wlll kill you.

The fact that he is at 2SD negative is a red flag for quality of play. Remember statistics do not give you answers, they give you questions. And the question is "Is your game tight?".

[refinery]

I'd also add that even if you pass in the boot camp you should also get checked out in a casino. If you make it around the east coast I'd be happy to evaluate your play.

[DoubleDownSoft21]

Re-look at your betting to improve your EV. Go to max bet earlier.

Betting in dead lockstep with the count is the fastest way to back off.


Stealth

I like this idea and plan to use it.

[cottage cheese]

Spread is not just about range. It is also about when you are betting.

I am guessing but I believe the game he is playing is 6d h17 das 75% pen in reasonablly tolerant environment. He should be at his max bet at TC3 not 4. He will only see about 12-14 rounds per shoe that are at TC 2 or higher. His opportunites are small and likely even less on crowded tables.

He indicated he is aggressively wonging which is mandantory in this game. He should be out at least 40% of round below TC-1.

He indicated that his game was good, and I would ask how do you know. How do you ever know how many errors you made, especially TC errors. Took insurance at TC2 because you thought it was TC 3. You get my point. A few of these at max bets wlll kill you.

The fact that he is at 2SD negative is a red flag for quality of play. Remember statistics do not give you answers, they give you questions. And the question is "Is your game tight?".

wonging is mandatory at a 6D with a 1-20 or 1-40 spread? I thought that spread can easily overcome sitting through negative counts. If you're wonging, you shouldn't need much of a spread at all, no?