1 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
Did you find this post helpful?
Yes |
No
Originally Posted by
blackjack avenger
Brh
Help me here
Is N0 a measure of the long run?
Does N0 refer to a 13.53% fixed ror?
Or
Does it refer to Kelly resizing?
Doesn't N0 or the long run go up about 4 times
Fixed betting vs Kelly resizing?
Thanks for your time
BA,
Yes NO is a measure of the long run, but (see my response above) it technically refers to an individual game,
with a particular count, a fixed (1 - M) UNIT spread (that is for example 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 per count value for a 1-5
spread - it's usually more complicated than that for an Optimal spread such as 3.34 etc by stay with me),
and a Wonging strategy such as "leave at all counts less than -1". NO is minimised when the exact
1-M spread is found for these conditions is found. As I alluded to above, the intermediate bets will
be fractional, such as 3.34 etc. the minimum bet will still be 1, the maximum bet will still be 5 in the above
example, it will tell you when you should bet the maxim, such as TC=+6, and when you are Wonging
your bet is 0.
At this stage, there is no money involved.
The same game as described above generates another parameter called "ekb" or Equivalent Kelly Bankroll.
Together (N0,ekb) characterise the optimal spread for this "game".
N0 has no effect on the ROR, what it does tell you is how many rounds it will tel you to have an ev = ekb.
It is ekb which is critical for ROR - it tells you how to calculate you monetary unit bet $B, which will be
your minimum bet in the real world should be in the real world for a given ROR.
Just say for some six deck game, we have a 1-10 spread, leave at Hilo TC=-1.
Typically for a game like this, N0 will be 40000 rounds and ekb will be 500 units.
Say you have a $10000 bankroll:
If we divide $10000 by N0 and multiply by 100 we get SCORE = 10000/40000 x 100 = $25.
If divide $10000 by ekb we get $B = $10000/500 = $20.
That is your betting scheme will be $20 - $200.
Now let's go in reverse and multiply ekb by $B: $B x ekb = $20 x 500 = $10000. This is called the EKB - your
actual Equivalent Kelly Bankroll.
If your actual bankroll was $10000, and you spread $20 -$200 your ROR would be 13.53%,
That's why we call $10000 the EKB. Notice that the ROR does not depend on N0.
Once you know the EKB you can calculate your Kelly fraction.
In this case, for a real bankroll of $20000 your Kelly fraction would be k = EKB/$20000 = 0.5 and your ROR = 5%.
I can understand this is quite difficult and you really need a simulator to work it all out.
Luckily we have the "veritable" Norm, so with a laptop and CVCX it will do it all for you.
As Tthree says, you can play with the CVCX tool on this site.
Cheers,
Brett.
Bookmarks