HiLo-KO/Color of BJ

[Red Green]

Before I get too attached to KO/CoBJ (“KO”) and the neural networks get burned in, I was thinking most of the literature around is HL based. I was originally drawn to KO for simplicity but after reading and practicing CoBJ, I’m making discard estimations and have to commit a variety of bet ranges. It’s a small step to TC conversion. Probably a cognitive processing wash.

As I recall (I’m pondering this from vacation and without most of my books) in the original KO text it compares favourably - neck and neck, I think - with HL in BE, PE and () the third one (lol! Insurance correlation?). In the preface to CoBJ Ken Smith states after running CVData, CoBJ yields a 4.4% increase in earn rate over the original KO (6D 75% pen) and a 6.3% increase in SCORE over KO (same game). When spreading 1-10 it’s a 13.5% and 16.5% increase in 6D - 66% pen, on those metrics, respectively.

Hmmm? If true, those improvements would maybe nudge KO ahead?

I know that so long as the system is sound, net spread and penetration are more critical than system (say comparing L1 counts to each other, not against L2 or side counts).

All else being equal (i.e. leave aside the ‘politics’ of playing) this seems to be a material system improvement. What’s a fellow to do?


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[ZeeBabar]

There are so many other things to work on. I have seriously considered switching from HiLo to a higher level counts but each time, I opted, with advice from pros on forums, to look at stuff such as game selection, game speed, trying to play tables that were not full, optimal betting, using more indexes, looking at compromises I was making (not hitting a 12 against a 5,6 when called for because of ploppies reactions of heat), ROR and money management, etc.

[Freightman]

There are so many other things to work on. I have seriously considered switching from HiLo to a higher level counts but each time, I opted, with advice from pros on forums, to look at stuff such as game selection, game speed, trying to play tables that were not full, optimal betting, using more indexes, looking at compromises I was making (not hitting a 12 against a 5,6 when called for because of ploppies reactions of heat), ROR and money management, etc.

The analogy here is very simple, and Zee, as he should, has made his own best decision - a decision which will vary person by person.

The impact of higher earnings will be demolished by ignoring proper game selection. Further, time spent perfecting index play, betting scenarios etc., will help improve results within the count system chosen.

Once the intangibles have been perfected, the individual can then make a further choice of count system, should they so desire.

[Red Green]

Thanks all for your advice.

Since most of my play will be local I agree riding the wave is much more sound than trying to fight it. Longevity will be critical. As they say in the markets: bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.

What started me thinking about this were some threads about the Lucky Lady side count and (pardon me if I’m quoting what may have been a label in jest - but from the written word, I couldn’t tell...) the ‘Freightman-Ball Ace side count’. Found data on the former for KO and Jacobson’s optimal LL count but couldn’t find any links describing the F-BASC? Seemed to be more literature on HL and these things...

I will add the CV data and play around with it.

Happy NY to all!



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[ZeeBabar]

Zee. FWIW. IF you were to switch, it will take 10k hands until you begin to see the cards with new tag values. Tens days, 10 hours a day, and 100 hands per hour will allow you to drive your new car (so to speak) comfortably. Thus the value of Verite.

All the rhetoric regarding indices, ploppies, heat creates a great deal of confusion. You can't win if you can't play. So consider your heat sensitive risks carefully. I prefer a bottoms up appoach of taking what they will give me as opposed to enforcing my will against their nature. If it's not enough? Then don't play. But you never win long tern by pushing the pits or EITS buttons. Those buttons come in several different forms.

The good news is IMO, you can still maximize profits by playing within heat tolerances with CV Data and Verite tools. You just have to know the do's and don'ts. The difference between advantages and thresholds. Then be willing to invest the time of doing your homework in advance.

Call me crazy. But I don't see how anyone would/could compete in this high volatile game without understanding the depth.

Moses, the timing is right and I thought I would share. My head end results at the end of 2017is a win of $28,880 in 400 hours at a rate of $71+ though after expenses, probably $20k plus. Puny by pros here but I have learned much from you all. I lost $8k in the first two months of 2017 or my wins would be around $36k.

I guess it helps but one does not have to be a mechanic to drive a car.

[Freightman]

Moses, the timing is right and I thought I would share. My head end results at the end of 2017is a win of $28,880 in 400 hours at a rate of $71+ though after expenses, probably $20k plus. Puny by pros here but I have learned much from you all. I lost $8k in the first two months of 2017 or my wins would be around $36k.

I guess it helps but one does not have to be a mechanic to drive a car.

Zee
An expense factor of about $20 per hour is actually quite good. You might want to break down your expense per hour for driving trips, equate that to your expense per hour on flying trips, and note the difference.

That difference per hour may encourage you to increase your spread on flying trips. This would be to capture a higher win rate on flying trips, in order to compensate for the higher expense factor. You don't need CVCX to figure this out.

Your other comment was in regards to your earnings versus pros. You don't need to give a shit about others, only yourself. If you're happy with $50 per hour after expense, more power to you. My constructive criticism to you, is to be more diligent with respect to maximizing your earnings within the constraints of your bankroll.

[Freightman]

Zee
An expense factor of about $20 per hour is actually quite good. You might want to break down your expense per hour for driving trips, equate that to your expense per hour on flying trips, and note the difference.

That difference per hour may encourage you to increase your spread on flying trips. This would be to capture a higher win rate on flying trips, in order to compensate for the higher expense factor. You don't need CVCX to figure this out.

Your other comment was in regards to your earnings versus pros. You don't need to give a shit about others, only yourself. If you're happy with $50 per hour after expense, more power to you. My constructive criticism to you, is to be more diligent with respect to maximizing your earnings within the constraints of your bankroll.

P.S. Your expense factor is to high a proportion of revenue

[Bubbles]

You don't need to give a shit about others, only yourself. If you're happy with $50 per hour after expense, more power to you. My constructive criticism to you, is to be more diligent with respect to maximizing your earnings within the constraints of your bankroll.

.

Wise words.

I spread more when I fly places too. I'm unlikely to return with any regularity. Might as well get those bets out there.


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[Freightman]

Congrat's Zee. If I'm reading your results correctly, you actually made nearly $50K at the tables?

:

You misread zee's post. 400 hours at 71 per equals about 28 k, less about 8k for expense equals about 20k net.

[ZeeBabar]

You misread zee's post. 400 hours at 71 per equals about 28 k, less about 8k for expense equals about 20k net.

Correct! I actually retired at the end of June. The second half of the year was more successful because I spent more time, living/thinking BJ.

I have a whole lot to learn but it does not include a new count. I have to become more comfortable with bigger bets (max has been around $150 on a single hand), learn to tackle 6 deck games, diversity my travels (it's mostly been Mo, Tunica and DD games in Las Vegas off strip).

Problem is that I am still, for family reasons, restricted to short trips (2-3 day) twice a month and local casinos. Those short trips have been to Las Vegas visiting (playing 15-20 hours) or Tunica. Plan to look at other places.

[Freightman]

Correct! I actually retired at the end of June. The second half of the year was more successful because I spent more time, living/thinking BJ.

I have a whole lot to learn but it does not include a new count. I have to become more comfortable with bigger bets (max has been around $150 on a single hand), learn to tackle 6 deck games, diversity my travels (it's mostly been Mo, Tunica and DD games in Las Vegas off strip).

Problem is that I am still, for family reasons, restricted to short trips (2-3 day) twice a month and local casinos. Those short trips have been to Las Vegas visiting (playing 15-20 hours) or Tunica. Plan to look at other places.

Zee
inferences are as follows.
400 hours per year, with 2-3 day trips twice per month equates to 48-72 days per year. Use 60 days average, which equates to approx 6.75 hours per day of play. Think about your age and fatigue factor. A 3 day trip equates to 20.25 hours. Granted, you are playing hi lo, and your health issues may be minimal, but that pace would absolutely exhaust me, though I do have health issues.

If that is in fact the case, let me assure you that there is a negative return once you surpass the fatigue point. Think about that. For myself, I have 2 different types of tired. The first is no big deal, and I can simply play longer, and I'll get a second wind, soon enough. The other is a type of tired that gives me a headache, slows me down, abd I will start to get Brain farts. I simply quit, regardless of where I am.

Regardless, I'm exhausted at the end of a trip, and need a good day to day and a half to recover. My typical trip is 2-3 days when driving, and at least 4 days when flying. The longer flying trip is to amortize the additional expense over a longer period if time, thereby reducing my expense per day. Note also, that when I fly, I also incur car rental costs. My most recent trip, which I just returned from, was 16 hours of play over 3 days, comprising 8 sessions. I typically average 5 hours per day of actual play. Everything was 6 deck. Actual total expense was 450-500. Expense thus trip was under 10%. For the year, I played your half your hours with double the revenue. Expense was give or take 75% if yours, though, my unit expense cost per hour is higher than yours (yes, everything is more expensive up here. My year also started slow.

You just posted year end results stating approx 28k revenue with 8k expense, netting 20k. Quick calc tells me that your expense factor, as a percentage of revenue, is give or take, 28%. Your expense ratio is far to high. I understand that you're happy with $50 per hour after expense, but the proportion of expense to revenue is such that a bad run will really demolish you. Think about that.

Seriously consider a plan (you can relax these numbers, as you do have a retirement income) which provides an approximate expense ratio of 10% on driving trips. You can relax this a bit fir flying trips due to the higher expense involved, and as you have stated, it does not appear that you can amortize the higher expense over an extended time period.

Anyways, something went haywire in my iPad, and the paragraphs got mixed up. The simple message is to up your spread to reduce your expense ratio.

[ZeeBabar]

You misread zee's post. 400 hours at 71 per equals about 28 k, less about 8k for expense equals about 20k net.

Zee
inferences are as follows.
400 hours per year, with 2-3 day trips twice per month equates to 48-72 days per year. Use 60 days average, which equates to approx 6.75 hours per day of play. Think about your age and fatigue factor. A 3 day trip equates to 20.25 hours. Granted, you are playing hi lo, and your health issues may be minimal, but that pace would absolutely exhaust me, though I do have health issues.

If that is in fact the case, let me assure you that there is a negative return once you surpass the fatigue point. Think about that. For myself, I have 2 different types of tired. The first is no big deal, and I can simply play longer, and I'll get a second wind, soon enough. The other is a type of tired that gives me a headache, slows me down, abd I will start to get Brain farts. I simply quit, regardless of where I am.

Regardless, I'm exhausted at the end of a trip, and need a good day to day and a half to recover. My typical trip is 2-3 days when driving, and at least 4 days when flying. The longer flying trip is to amortize the additional expense over a longer period if time, thereby reducing my expense per day. Note also, that when I fly, I also incur car rental costs. My most recent trip, which I just returned from, was 16 hours of play over 3 days, comprising 8 sessions. I typically average 5 hours per day of actual play. Everything was 6 deck. Actual total expense was 450-500. Expense thus trip was under 10%. For the year, I played your half your hours with double the revenue. Expense was give or take 75% if yours, though, my unit expense cost per hour is higher than yours (yes, everything is more expensive up here. My year also started slow.

You just posted year end results stating approx 28k revenue with 8k expense, netting 20k. Quick calc tells me that your expense factor, as a percentage of revenue, is give or take, 28%. Your expense ratio is far to high. I understand that you're happy with $50 per hour after expense, but the proportion of expense to revenue is such that a bad run will really demolish you. Think about that.

Seriously consider a plan (you can relax these numbers, as you do have a retirement income) which provides an approximate expense ratio of 10% on driving trips. You can relax this a bit fir flying trips due to the higher expense involved, and as you have stated, it does not appear that you can amortize the higher expense over an extended time period.

Anyways, something went haywire in my iPad, and the paragraphs got mixed up. The simple message is to up your spread to reduce your expense ratio.

Excellent points. Yes, my typical flying trip of 1-2 times a month is 2 full days in Las Vegas and it leaves me exhausted. Takes me 1-2 days of washed up feelings before I recover. I manage 12 hours of table time. Expenses are about $350-$400 each trip.

My driving trip gives me a full day of playing, maybe a day and a half and I do this 1-2 times a month and I manage about 8 hours of play. Expenses are about $150 a trip.

I had more of my success in local casinos but it's likely to dry up as dealers joke ( "He always wins") and individual pit guys take counter measures of sorts (tightening up penetration 75% to 50-60% in DD, from as much as 90% to under 80% on 6 deck) when other players are playing with me, worse when heads up.

I have to work on family to get away a bit more for longer trips but part of the issue is my 15 year old. Maybe when he grows up a bit more, I might travel longer periods. Now, Monday to Thursday, I get him to school and back, help him with his study and life issues.

[Freightman]

Excellent points. Yes, my typical flying trip of 1-2 times a month is 2 full days in Las Vegas and it leaves me exhausted. Takes me 1-2 days of washed up feelings before I recover. I manage 12 hours of table time. Expenses are about $350-$400 each trip.

My driving trip gives me a full day of playing, maybe a day and a half and I do this 1-2 times a month and I manage about 8 hours of play. Expenses are about $150 a trip.

I had more of my success in local casinos but it's likely to dry up as dealers joke ( "He always wins") and individual pit guys take counter measures of sorts (tightening up penetration 75% to 50-60% in DD, from as much as 90% to under 80% on 6 deck) when other players are playing with me, worse when heads up.

I have to work on family to get away a bit more for longer trips but part of the issue is my 15 year old. Maybe when he grows up a bit more, I might travel longer periods. Now, Monday to Thursday, I get him to school and back, help him with his study and life issues.

Zee
I'm astounded by how cheap you're driving and flying trips are. Granted, in the playing venues I frequent, there's not much in the way of hotel comps without raising an awareness issue, which us getting up there as it is. Accordingly, that is one factor to contend with.

My most recent trip was 3 nights at 95 per, in a nice place, plus gas and food (some food comps) with an expense around 425 VS your 150. Rev was approx 14x expense. I've just booked a flying trip for end of month. You spend 350-400 on your flying trips. I have, what I consider as cheap, a $308 airfare cost, $240 car rental (4 days). Haven't booked hotel yet, but my preferred spot will be 3 nights at probably 140 per fir a 420 expense. There are lots if cheaper places, but the place that I use us a decent Best Western, in the absolute best location for my purposes.

I will arrive about 8.30 in the morning, leaving 7.30 in the evening, giving me 3.5 days to 4 days of play over 3 hotel nights. I think an extra day of car rental puts me in the weekly rental cost category, which ups my car rental expense. Puts me close to 1k in expense plus food.

I'll probably push it a bit. If I'm lucky, I'll hit 10x expense, though a more likely result will be 6-7 x expense. Like you, I have other income, so the actual ratios are not critical. Having said, I'm certainly cognizant of a possible loss.

Zee, I recognize that we both tend to be laissez faire. Regardless, I still approach it as a business, which us graded, among other things, as revenue over expense.

After all, f not to make money, then, what is "Zee" point.