Spanish 21 EV?

[SpikeBJ]

FYI. Poolside drinks should be RUM drinks.

[All Clear]

Hi Gronblog- your attachment was VERY helpful, and thanks again for sending it. If you would like information on how basic strategy changes for doubling when using a match-play, let me know (it seems like others aren't as interested, likely since most locations don't let you use a match-play coupon on Spanish 21). Feel free to chime in when you return.

[Gronbog]

Thanks, but I already am able to generate the proper strategy. It's part of what I will be addressing when I return. We can compare results at that time.

[stringer]

Readers of this thread are reminded that almost no casino in North
America will permit the use of Match Play on Spanish21 games.

I don't doubt this for a second....
At my only local casino that offers surrender on their BJ tables, and offers FREE BET coupons , in the fine print on the coupons it states that they cannot be used in the surrender situation. I had a 16 vs dealer 10 and they would not let me do it.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/...ouponsbjfo.pdf

Who am I to speak up if I think that the redoubtable
James Grosjean may have published an error?

I am Iconoclastic, so ...

On page #5 in "Beyond Coupons" (see link in post #4)
it delineates a Craps "Pass Line" Bet returning significantly
more to the holder of a Match Play coupon than a "Don't Pass"
Bet.

I M H O this is egregiously wrong. That is simply because the
Pass Line House Edge is higher than the Don't Pass House Edge.
Admittedly, the difference is small, approximately 0.02%.

I really am looking for feedback on this.

[Gronbog]

Grosjean is correct.

Match play coupons are mathematically equivalent to loss rebates. As such, the house edge is no longer the dominant factor in their value. Variance is. The higher the better. That's why a single number on roulette provides the best value, despite the very high house edge. In a similar way, "player" is a better match play bet than "banker" in baccarat.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

How is there an invariance between these two (2) craps
bets favoring one over the other?

The only difference that I can see is that the Pass Line bet
is resolved with a win more often on the initial roll, while
the Don't Pass wins more often on the otherwise decisive
subsequent rolls.

I really want to understand this issue. Please assist me.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

"player" is a better match play bet than "banker" in baccarat."

I have been using Match Play on the Player Bet at baccarat.
In fact, my local casino won't permit Match Play on Banker.
The Player Bet has a lower House Edge, but clearly wins less
often than the Banker Bet.

I would like an explanation of this, as it appears that I am but
partially cognizant of the issue of variance as it applies in this
instance.

[All Clear]

Just played Spanish 21 with match plays, and surrendered twice (I had 6 match plays), both of which I wouldn't have done previously (since the EV for the play was better than -0.5, but worse than -0.333). Thanks to everyone who contributed toward lowering my house edge at SP21! Agreed that you can't use coupons in most cases, but in places where you can, this is awesome information. :-)

[Gronbog]

I have been using Match Play on the Player Bet at baccarat.
In fact, my local casino won't permit Match Play on Banker.
The Player Bet has a lower House Edge, but clearly wins less
often than the Banker Bet.

I would like an explanation of this, as it appears that I am but
partially cognizant of the issue of variance as it applies in this
instance.

You're on the right track. The value of the coupon only asserts itself when you lose. A bet which loses more often will be favoured all else being equal. I should be clear that house edge is not completely irrelevant here. It is just no longer the dominant factor.

The math for craps and baccarat is a little to much for me to do on my tablet (while on vacation ). The extreme case of roulette is easier and probably more instructive. Using American roulette, for a single number bet of one unit plus one match play coupon, your expected value is

(1/38)x35x2 + (37/38)x(-1x2 - 1) = (70/38) - (37/38) = 33/38 = 0.868

The power of the coupon asserts itself in the second term as the loss is reduced 37 out of 38 times the coupon is played. It is this form of variance which comes from infrequent wins which dominates the value of the coupon.

Note to Meistro: even though they take the coupon away at this point we don't deduct its value from its EV because we "lost" the coupon (a bit of a glimpse into some points I will make when I return home next week).

I'll leave it as an exercise for the reader to determine the value of this coupon for a fair coin toss which has a lower house edge (zero) than roulette, but for which the coupon is less valuable (0.5)

[ZenMaster_Flash]

"Agreed that you can't use coupons in most cases."

"Most cases" is quite the extreme understatement.

I have never seen a Span21 table accept Match Play.

I imagine that there are perhaps as many as 2 or 3

such opportunities ~ and you've found the only one

misunderstanding the major magic of 'couponomy'.

[Banker]

Grosjean is correct.

Match play coupons are mathematically equivalent to loss rebates. As such, the house edge is no longer the dominant factor in their value. Variance is. The higher the better. That's why a single number on roulette provides the best value, despite the very high house edge. In a similar way, "player" is a better match play bet than "banker" in baccarat.

And a tie bet is better than player or banker in baccarat.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

It is this form of variance which comes from infrequent
wins whichdominates the value of the coupon.

Wowee!

I am densely dumb.

Oh yeah.

I still do not fathom this

in regards to Craps play.