I think we all need to wait for Gronbog to finish the simulations before any more comments.
Right now all of your posts are speculation.
I have already explained this many, many times. In the simulation Gronbog did I had included very few negative indices because I only calculated indices for the back counted game which is all that I play. I was not considering the play all game.
So what happened is for negative counts my system used basic strategy while the HO2 w ASC used indices. So of course the HO2 w ASC is going to outperform my system for negative counts since for negative counts my system was basic strategy. So for negative counts my system was no system at all as no count was used for negative counts, just basic strategy. This is not hard to figure out yet I mentioned this many times and users keep on insisting that my system is flawed because it lost the play all simulations instead of the real reason which was I did not include negative indices.
That I am correct about not including negative indices being the reason why my system lost to the HO2 w ASC for the play all simulation is further born out by taking a closer look at the SCORE for the play all game. As the betting spread increased, SCORE(HO2 w ASC) - SCORE (KO system) decreased as it should since as spread increases the importance of negative indices decreases.
So I gave Gronbog negative indices for my system to add to the simulation he did with the no LS game which had almost no negative indices. And I also gave him LS indices. I ask Gronbog to do just these two simulations.
Gronbog emailed me back last week that he did not forget and will work on the simulations when he gets a chance. And I told him if he had any questions to please email me.
So give Gronbog a chance to do the simulations and your questions will be answered.
And I am sticking by my predictions which I mentioned several times before.
(1) When negative indices are added, my system will beat HO2 w ASC for the play all game in addition to the back counted game which my system has already been shown to beat the HO2 w ASC.
(2) For the LS game, the advantage of my KO system over the HO2 w ASC will be even greater than for the no LS game.
So please stop bashing my system until the simulations are done. If simulations show that my predictions are incorrect, then go ahead and bash my system all you want. But until the simulations are done I feel that it is very inappropriate to bash my system.
But I am confident that you will see that my predictions are correct.
Last edited by bjanalyst; 03-21-2019 at 05:34 AM.
Excuse me but I think you are talking to the wrong person.
On 3-17 I posted:So please NO MORE COMMENTS until simulations are complete. Thanks.
And then there were NINE more posts AFTER I asked no more posts until simulations were complete.
Now I posted once again to hopefully stop these posts to ask users once again to please wait again till simulation are complete. I replied to the 9 posts made by others AFTER I asked them to delay posts and my post was to ask them once again to WAIT until simulations are complete.
The only reason I even looked at this forum now was to see if Gronbog posted something about the simulations since the last email I got from him over a week ago. Then I was surprised to see 9 posts by OTHERS all made by others AFTER I asked to please hold posts till after the simulations were done..
I am not the one you should be talking to about getting the hint about waiting to post until AFTER simulations are done. I think you need to ask OTHERS to stop posting until after simulations are done because obviously these other users cannot resist posting and bashing my system before the simulation results even come in and they do not listen to me.
If users listened to me and did not make any more posts after I asked them not to on 3-17 to wait for simulations results, I would not have made another post.So I post once again asking users to wait until simulations are done and then I am accused of making excess posts? I think people on this site just like to bash my system and everything I say. Skepticism is OK but you guys are overdoing it.
So WAIT UNTIL GRONBOG does his simulations before any more posts.
If you guys have some self control and can just wait until the simulations are done then I will not have to post (other than posts related to simulation questions with Gronbog) either until after simulations results come in.
So the deal is you hold off on posts and so will I.
Last edited by bjanalyst; 03-21-2019 at 10:05 AM.
Then why did you comment when nobody had commented for days? This further erodes credibility. You clearly want comments or you would have let things be. Any fool can see you are not posting what you want. If you were you wouldn't have bumped a dead thread.
The truth is if you barley beat Hiopt2 by making things ridiculously complicated you still haven't beat it. A system that is unnecessarily complicated does;t beat another system that isn't using the same complexity. You say Hiopt2 won because it uses negative indices and you don't. Using that as a guideline your system is only close because you side count 9 ranks so Hiopt2 should use side counts of the same sort to make things equal. If it did it would have similar improvement to what you got for KO. Stop trying to con APs. They see right through it.
For those who are still interested, I have the SCOREs for what bjanalyst calls sim 8. This represents the use of all of his indices for his KO+5m7c+AA89mTc+b system on the 6 deck game without late surrender. You can find those indices in is previous posts. Results for the same game with late surrender to come shortly.
The executive summary is that, for this game, with these indices, his system does have higher SCOREs than HiOpt II + ASC for all of the scenarios tested.
This not an endorsement on my part of this or any other counting system. I am simply reporting the results of the requested simulations which were, once again, conducted using the parameters described in BJA3 chapters 9 and 10.
Code:Scenario System Source SCORE Delta --------------------------------------------------------------------- Play-All 1-8 HiLo Full Indices Gronbog 24.30 HiLo+AA78mTc 6 Gronbog 27.18 11.85% HiLo+AA78mTc 12 Gronbog 27.89 2.61% HiLo+AA78mTc 26 Gronbog 28.35 1.65% HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c Gronbog 29.53 4.16% HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c+b Gronbog 30.37 2.84% KO+5m7c+AA89mTc+b sim 6 Gronbog 32.94 8.46% HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 34.49 4.71% KO+5m7c+AA89mTc+b sim 8 Gronbog 35.32 2.41% Play-All 1-10 HiLo Full Indices Gronbog 29.27 HiLo+AA78mTc 6 Gronbog 32.33 10.45% HiLo+AA78mTc 12 Gronbog 33.07 2.29% HiLo+AA78mTc 26 Gronbog 33.54 1.42% HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c Gronbog 34.83 3.85% HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c+b Gronbog 35.78 2.73% KO+5m7c+AA89mTc+b sim 6 Gronbog 38.89 8.69% HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 40.03 2.93% KO+5m7c+AA89mTc+b sim 8 Gronbog 41.33 3.25% Play-All 1-12 HiLo Full Indices Gronbog 33.04 HiLo+AA78mTc 6 Gronbog 36.21 9.59% HiLo+AA78mTc 12 Gronbog 36.95 2.04% HiLo+AA78mTc 26 Gronbog 37.44 1.33% HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c Gronbog 38.80 3.63% HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c+b Gronbog 39.84 2.68% KO+5m7c+AA89mTc+b sim 6 Gronbog 43.35 8.81% HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 44.19 1.94% KO+5m7c+AA89mTc+b sim 8 Gronbog 45.83 3.71% Back-Count 1-1 HiLo Full Indices Gronbog 46.86 HiLo+AA78mTc 6 Gronbog 49.64 5.93% HiLo+AA78mTc 12 Gronbog 50.03 0.79% HiLo+AA78mTc 26 Gronbog 50.43 0.80% HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c Gronbog 51.67 2.46% HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c+b Gronbog 52.95 2.48% HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 55.70 5.19% KO+5m7c+AA89mTc+b sim 6 Gronbog 57.89 3.93% KO+5m7c+AA89mTc+b sim 8 Gronbog 59.47 2.73% Back-Count 1-2 HiLo Full Indices Gronbog 55.56 HiLo+AA78mTc 6 Gronbog 58.86 5.94% HiLo+AA78mTc 12 Gronbog 59.45 1.00% HiLo+AA78mTc 26 Gronbog 60.06 1.03% HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c Gronbog 61.44 2.30% HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c+b Gronbog 63.09 2.69% HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 66.77 5.83% KO+5m7c+AA89mTc+b sim 6 Gronbog 68.45 2.52% KO+5m7c+AA89mTc+b sim 8 Gronbog 70.47 2.95% Back-Count 1-4 HiLo Full Indices Gronbog 61.24 HiLo+AA78mTc 6 Gronbog 64.49 5.31% HiLo+AA78mTc 12 Gronbog 65.01 0.81% HiLo+AA78mTc 26 Gronbog 65.60 0.91% HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c Gronbog 66.98 2.10% HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c+b Gronbog 68.46 2.21% HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 72.31 5.62% KO+5m7c+AA89mTc+b sim 6 Gronbog 74.88 3.55% KO+5m7c+AA89mTc+b sim 8 Gronbog 76.95 2.76% Back-Count 1-8 HiLo Full Indices Gronbog 62.91 HiLo+AA78mTc 6 Gronbog 65.96 4.85% HiLo+AA78mTc 12 Gronbog 66.43 0.71% HiLo+AA78mTc 26 Gronbog 67.00 0.86% HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c Gronbog 68.32 1.97% HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c+b Gronbog 70.08 2.58% HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 74.35 6.09% KO+5m7c+AA89mTc+b sim 6 Gronbog 76.60 3.03% KO+5m7c+AA89mTc+b sim 8 Gronbog 78.63 2.65% Back-Count 1-12 HiLo Full Indices Gronbog 63.23 HiLo+AA78mTc 6 Gronbog 66.48 5.14% HiLo+AA78mTc 12 Gronbog 67.05 0.86% HiLo+AA78mTc 26 Gronbog 67.68 0.94% HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c Gronbog 69.11 2.11% HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c+b Gronbog 70.92 2.62% HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 75.05 5.82% KO+5m7c+AA89mTc+b sim 6 Gronbog 77.37 3.09% KO+5m7c+AA89mTc+b sim 8 Gronbog 79.65 2.95% Unrestricted HiLo Full Indices Gronbog 63.87 HiLo+AA78mTc 6 Gronbog 67.01 4.92% HiLo+AA78mTc 12 Gronbog 67.55 0.81% HiLo+AA78mTc 26 Gronbog 68.16 0.90% HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c Gronbog 69.54 2.02% HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c+b Gronbog 71.27 2.49% HiOpt II + ASC Gronbog 75.22 5.54% KO+5m7c+AA89mTc+b sim 6 Gronbog 77.95 3.63% KO+5m7c+AA89mTc+b sim 8 Gronbog 80.10 2.76%
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