Originally Posted by
Overkill
Hello all,
I'm sure this has been covered ad nauseum previously, but some (like me!) could use a refresher please.
We know progressive betting systems are, for the basic strategy player, for instance, mathematically unsound and are therefore to be avoided.
But what about for the player with a POSITIVE advantage, but not for the entire shoe.
Consider Bob playing at a 6-deck table with one other player. Bob know that, on average, as he plays he will encouner certain conditions which provide him with a 4% advantage on about 2 hands per shoe.
So, for example, he is flat betting $10 per hand, and, after, say, Hand #8, he realizes he now has an advantage of 4% for Hand #9 and bets, say, $40 on Hand #9. As he continues playing, he comes across another player favorable Hand - maybe Hand #20, and so he also bets $40 on Hand #20.
Because his player favorable hands are so few and far between (about 2 hands per shoe), would Bob be better off progressively increasing his bet on the 4% advantage hands until he wins one of them (and starting over after he wins one of them)? (Perhaps the progression would go like the following: $20 on Hand #9, $50 on Hand #20, and then $100, $400, $500.).I realize Bob will lose the roughly $1070 (plus losing doubles, splits) at times due to losing 5 hands in a row (maybe .25% of the time?) and subsequently coming up against the table max.
I'm guessing the variance will be much higher if he uses the progression (or, more generally, ANY progression) rather than if stays patient with his $10 flat betting and $30 betting on the uncommon though player-favorable hands. And I am guessing he will also lose money with the progression in the long run, correct?
**But, at what player-advantage is a particular progression appropriate, if ever? Playing with a 12% player advantage for roughly 2 hands per shoe? Playing with a 28% player advantage for roughly 2 hands per shoe?**
I am asking because even though the player has an advantage at certain times, those times are so infrequent as to be psychologically difficult for the non-progression player during negative swings. I am hoping a particular progression can be devised given a certain player advantage at times.
Bookmarks