My Betting Strategy

**WA Player** · 07-26-2021, 06:53 PM

Originally Posted by Overkill

WA Player, in regarding to betting very high when the count is very high, is there indeed a relationship between such? From looking at very limited sim data recently, I was under the impression that perhaps at the extreme end (the extreme positive count end), a very high count is not as reliable a predictor of a player win as, say, is a low to moderate count.

Anyone: does any data back this thought up?

I am assuming that as the count goes up to very high levels that my confidence in being in a positive EV will improve. I'm not necessarily assuming a proportional increase in EV, but just more certain that even if I am off by a point or 2, that EV will still be solidly positive. Sadly, I don't have any data to back this up and am hoping that someone will help to enlighten me.

**DSchles** · 07-26-2021, 08:23 PM

Originally Posted by WA Player

I am assuming that as the count goes up to very high levels that my confidence in being in a positive EV will improve. I'm not necessarily assuming a proportional increase in EV, but just more certain that even if I am off by a point or 2, that EV will still be solidly positive. Sadly, I don't have any data to back this up and am hoping that someone will help to enlighten me.

Higher true counts continue to furnish higher expectations. There is no tapering off, or reaching an inflection point, as is the case with negative counts. At about -13 true or so (why would you be anywhere near the table??), the edge stops decreasing. But, there is no corresponding phenomenon on the upside. Despite this, the edge doesn't quite continue to increase linearly, as, at extremely high counts, there are an inordinate amount of 20-20 pushes.

Don

**21frogman** · 07-27-2021, 12:15 PM

Originally Posted by DSchles

there are an inordinate amount of 20-20 pushes.

Don, is this a test?

**DSchles** · 07-27-2021, 04:06 PM

Originally Posted by 21frogman

Don, is this a test?

Would you have preferred: "there are a large number of 20-20 pushes"?

Don

**21frogman** · 07-28-2021, 06:31 AM

Originally Posted by DSchles

Would you have preferred: "there are a large number of 20-20 pushes"?

No. I was thinking, "There is an inordinate amount of 20-20 pushes."

**DSchles** · 07-28-2021, 08:08 AM

Originally Posted by 21frogman

No. I was thinking, "There is an inordinate amount of 20-20 pushes."

That's really wrong also. But there are two different concepts at work here. The fact is that "amount" shouldn't be used for things that can be counted. As I mentioned, I should have written "number." You reserve "amount" for what can't be counted, such as, "There is a large amount of water in the beaker." You use "number" for things that can be counted (such as pushes!). So, as I replied, I should written, "there are a large number of 20-20 pushes."

I just want to make sure that you also understand, in the latter construction, that we use the plural verb "are" and not the singular "is."

Don

**21frogman** · 07-28-2021, 12:51 PM

Originally Posted by DSchles

I just want to make sure that you also understand, in the latter construction, that we use the plural verb "are" and not the singular "is."

You addressed my (erroneous) concern. It was the use of "are", a plural verb, to modify what I thought was a singular noun. I was unaware that "amount" in this circumstance has plural status.
What made it stand out more than usual was the singular adjective, "an", modifying it.
Thanks for the explanation.