Different styles of play and GWAE guest, Card Counter “Joe”

[Joe748]

I just wanted you to understand why I've been a "Doubting Thomas" when I heard your story. But since it's gambling, I know it's possible.

I've been pretty transparent I can't tell you the reasoning why myself, Yoshi, and Smallcap all get a lot of time with aggressive spreads my first question would be have you tried it? If you went out and did the same thing you would get the same amount of time you just have to go to enough places to have it happen. I promise you if you do some more digging or get in contact with people that know me my story will be backed up in detail by many others. (I'm also not white I think that probably helps).

[Dbs6582]

I've been pretty transparent I can't tell you the reasoning why myself, Yoshi, and Smallcap all get a lot of time with aggressive spreads my first question would be have you tried it? If you went out and did the same thing you would get the same amount of time you just have to go to enough places to have it happen. I promise you if you do some more digging or get in contact with people that know me my story will be backed up in detail by many others. (I'm also not white I think that probably helps).

Valid points! And I do appreciate you answering me. Thank You! That makes your story more believable. I will say this, since I've heard about your story (I also knew about your story from bja) and Yoshi's story and Remyo's experience, I have started playing with much bigger bet spreads as a refusal at casinos I don't frequent much and have gotten very little heat and no backoffs. I've also had some sizable wins for me. Probably not much for your stakes. All your stories have pushed me to be more aggressive and it's been working. But when I say more aggresive, my typical spread is from $10 to $80. Playing as a refusal, I'll go from 1 x $25 to 2 x $175. So this has pushed my game up. I don't like getting backed off so I can't say it doesn't make me a little nervous. But I'm seeing as long as I stay under $200 I'm okay at the casinos I've been playing. I also don't play like a headstone at these casinos.

I'm still not willing to push it to 2 x $1,000. It's not because I don't have the bankroll. My bankroll can support this spread if I wanted to do it. It's because I don't want the backoffs and I don't want to be treated like a criminal. Who knows maybe I'll try it sometime when I'm far away from my area to see how it goes. It might be an interesting experience.

Thanks again! And I look forward to hearing about your experiences as you continue on your journey on either GWAE or Colin's podcasts.

[BoSox]

Dbs6582 wrote:

"Joe, what I struggle with is not about having the balls or social skills to back it up; it's is this even possible. It's hard for me to see how anybody could get enough time in with your strategy to win big money. I get that your method will win the money, if the casino will let you play this way."

First I have not heard the podcast show and I do not think I want to. Pertaining to if Joe's method is viable or not, I think the idea has plenty of merits. Starting with the player who is using zero deception. He is right up front about it, and who the fuck does that today? Nobody. In a very short period of time, the casino must decide what to do with this person, and they cannot make this decision lightly. This will be a very big deal as far as, how often does the casino see players walk in the door and are willing to bet pumpkins? They most likely think the guy that is being up front must be an idiot. More than likely way over betting "this is where the player's projection comes into play" his short roll "think hail Mary approach" and will suffer the inevitable. Let the bastard play "casino greed" as it will be enjoyable watching this moron lose his money. If in a short span of time the player starts doing well, the Tables Games Manager may extend the rope a little further, for lack of a better word embarrassment for letting a chump get the better of them.

[Dbs6582]

First I have not heard the podcast show and I do not think I want to. Pertaining to if Joe's method is viable or not, I think the idea has plenty of merits. Starting with the player who is using zero deception. He is right up front about it, and who the fuck does that today? Nobody. In a very short period of time, the casino must decide what to do with this person, and they cannot make this decision lightly. This will be a very big deal as far as, how often does the casino see players walk in the door and are willing to bet pumpkins. They most likely think the guy that is being up front must be an idiot. More than likely way over betting "this is where the player's projection comes into play" his short roll "think hail Mary" and will suffer the inevitable. Let the bastard play "casino greed" as it will be enjoyable watching this moron lose his money. If in a short span of time the player starts doing well, the Tables Games Manager may extend the rope further, for lack of a better word embarrassment for letting a chump get the better of them.

Here's the problem with your logic. The bet is moving with the count; it's not moving randomly. Most people who have counted can spot the difference, especially if the bet is going from min to table max. I thought Flash's discription on how casinos do a "skills check" was good. This is how I do it too. When I see someone jump the bet, I'll know pretty quick if he's counting or not. The first time he might have done it randomly but it happened to correspond to the count. But if this happens 3 times, and it corresponds to the count I know he's counting. This is why people ramp...to disguise what they're doing.

And all casinos are going to watch a player betting 2 x $1000. This is not going to help you be be less on their radar. This goes without saying. It's hard for me to believe that most casinos wouldn't know a player with this strategy isn't counting within an hour. They aren't going to just let him pound away.

You got to remember he's winning big money too, so his variance is way above EV. He won $500,000 in his first year so he had some huge payoffs, probably in the $20,000 to $50,000 range. It's hard for me to see a casino, especially in a small local area, just sitting back and letting someone go from $25 to $1000 and win this kind of money.

The other thing that didn't ring true is what the pit bosses told him that didn't back him off sooner. They didn't sound like something a casino pit boss would say. One said they "googled his name and saw he had a career so they didn't think he was counting". What? Are you serious? Casinos know people who have jobs can count. And one said that when he jumped in and out, they thought this meant he wasn't counting. What? This is what a counter does. This is what identifies you as a counter....jumping in and betting big with the count. One said something about him using half deck estimations that threw them off. What? How would the casino even know about half deck or whole deck estimations. All they know is if someone is moving their bet when the deck is "rich".

The other thing that didn't ring true was "super dealer" who could deal 700 rounds per hour. He was there to stop counters. What? No casino does this. If they spot a counter, they back him off. They don't bring in "Super dealer.". I actually found that part kind of funny. It reminded me of baseball and bringing in a relief pitcher who could bring "the heat" to get out a "hot batter", but in this case it was "super dealer" against "super counter."

[BoSox]

Here's the problem with your logic. The bet is moving with the count; it's not moving randomly.

Everyone realizes that, as he is making it very clear. A good question for Joe is at what count does he go from $25 to $1000 since there is no ramp. The higher the TC he waits to do this the quicker they will be to get rid of him. If he bets a $1000 on a slightly positive EV situation he might buy himself a little more time, because they do not know his financial position.

[Ryemo]

I do not play nearly the kind of stakes that Joe748 or Yoshi play, but my top bets are around half of what Joe’s is. With that said, I’ve had some 5 figure winning session ranging between 10 and 20K while using very aggressive spreads. I visited a couple dumpy looking casinos that let me sit there for hours with extremely aggressive spreads and win a lot. Does that style lead to many back offs? Of course! But that doesn’t mean some casinos won’t let you play.

I had one casino let me play for hours using a massive spread and you could tell they were sweating me like crazy. I was spreading red chips up to 2x table max. I won a 5 figure amount and actually never got backed off. I left on my own accord because I absolutely had to be home by a certain time and I had long drive ahead of me. A part of me thinks they just weren’t good at making evaluations or maybe they were waiting for me to lose some back. I have no idea. I’m sure if I would have stuck around a few more hours, they probably would have backed me off. But I’ve ran into many casinos like that through my short career.

[refinery]

Ok. Barry Seal.

How is the Single Deck Reno BJ these days?

[Gronbog]

Absolutely no disrespect intended.

None taken.

Newbie- I want to make some money, what count should I use?
Mentor- unless you use the best system, hi opt 2 with asc, then you're a fucking idiot. Hi lo is inferior and you need an ace neutral count, adjusted, in order to reduce variance and perform well n a lower spread.
Newbie- oh golly gee willickers, hiw can I learn hi Opt 2 with asc.
Mentor- I will teach you, for I am wise and wonderful.

This is the point at which you, or anyone, can step in and say. "Well, that's not necessarily true. Simple count X will make you Y amount of money based on a CVCX sim", which would be very helpful to the newbie. This response does also happen frequently. Yes, you would have to step in and say this every time the scenario above happens, but you're already doing that with your current tactic.

I Just don't see how posting that the newbie should consider your ball count or that you don't intend to answer helps the newbie. It certainly won't stop the scenario above from occurring. I don't think that anything will. They are entitled to their position as are you. I would just rather see the exchange being one of information vs information.

As for why I am not stepping in and doing this, it's because the informative response does happen often enough, in my opinion.

[Freightman]

None taken.

This is the point at which you, or anyone, can step in and say. "Well, that's not necessarily true. Simple count X will make you Y amount of money based on a CVCX sim", which would be very helpful to the newbie. This response does also happen frequently. Yes, you would have to step in and say this every time the scenario above happens, but you're already doing that with your current tactic.

I Just don't see how posting that the newbie should consider your ball count or that you don't intend to answer helps the newbie. It certainly won't stop the scenario above from occurring. I don't think that anything will. They are entitled to their position as are you. I would just rather see the exchange being one of information vs information.

As for why I am not stepping in and doing this, it's because the informative response does happen often enough, in my opinion.

Here's an analogy.
I have 2 sons, both fine young men. I've been told that I must have been very consistent in how I raised them. Not a chance in hell. Those 2 boys are polar opposites in personality. The older boy was never a problem. The younger one, whrpen puberty hit and the ADHD kicked in, was hell on earth. Despite their personality differences, they both share the same fundamental core values that I drilled into those boys.

If I had treated the older boy like u treated the younger one, I would have destroyed him. If I had treated the younger one like the older boy, he would have ended up in jail.

Cream puff to one, hard ass on the other. I never gave the young one an inch - at around 17, he finally figured it out - if I keep this up, I'm going to be a loser, and I'm not a loser.

Was I concerned, damned right I was. In the end, I knew I did it right. They are 38&34 now.

Flash and 3 are like the younger boy - they don't get it, they don't want to get it. They refuse to get it - unless they get their butt kicked.

So, time will tell. I don't want to be the cop, but no one else stands up to the plate - and if people,e want to put up with this shit, then fine. P- maybe they don't.

Anyways, gotta run. Time for the grand kids.

[Dbs6582]

Everyone realizes that, as he is making it very clear. A good question for Joe is at what count does he go from $25 to $1000 since there is no ramp. The higher the TC he waits to do this the quicker they will be to get rid of him. If he bets a $1000 on a slightly positive EV situation he might buy himself a little more time, because they do not know his financial position.

BoSox, in Joe's reply to one of my posts he said he goes to 2 x $1000 at a TC 3. At this count, the casino is going to know the deck is "rich". It's hard for me to see how anybody will get away with this for long, and, in fact, Joe said he's been backed off over 300 times, so it's not like he's getting away with it at a lot of casinos. Maybe Joe is finding some casinos that tolerate this type of action.

Getting back to his first year, I calculated that he was making about $1,000/hour for 400 hours...this was during the second half of the year. To understand the probability of this occurring, I ran some sims on CVCX last night with the spreads he gave. It's possible but he'd have to have had some very good variance, and he'd have had to be able to find a lot of tolerant casinos for this type of action. I think we'd all agree $1,000/hour for 400 hours is incredible! Not impossible, but certainly incredible! I agree with Moses here. I'd be worried about my safety if I was this blatant and open about how I play. This is called sticking it to the casinos...playing aggressively with no cover.

As far as someone winning big money, I've seen it at my local casino. This guy won $32,000 in one session. How did I know? I asked the pit boss the next day and he told me. This guy was on an incredible winning streak when I was there. I left around 2 am and he was still wining. The casino gave him no heat because they could see he wasn't counting. He bet like a gambler going from $500 to $1000 on two hands and playing $50 on the sucker bet. Once he was up a lot, he was basically flat betting $1000 on 2 hands. He was just hitting everything. As I'm sure you know, casinos don't mind you winning money if you're playing on their terms, which means being a negative EV player. But when they see someone bet min and then go to table max at TC 3, this usually isn't tolerated for long. Btw, this guy who had the one big night, came back several more times and gave it all back and then some in probably less than a month. We've all seen this before.

[Dbs6582]

Robinhood and EITS. Just a guess. But if 30 pit bosses listen to this podcast, 15 are laughing their asses off. 10 are pissed off. 5 are scared shitless. Am I close?

Frieghtman, that was a good one. That's the most I laughed today. Helped get me through lunch.

[Joe748]

BoSox, in Joe's reply to one of my posts he said he goes to 2 x $1000 at a TC 3. At this count, the casino is going to know the deck is "rich". It's hard for me to see how anybody will get away with this for long, and, in fact, Joe said he's been backed off over 300 times, so it's not like he's getting away with it at a lot of casinos. Maybe Joe is finding some casinos that tolerate this type of action.

Also Dbs6582 keep in mind ever since that first big year my hourly win rate has gone down each year. I've made less and less money each year. When I had my big year I was doing 2x1000 at T3 now I have to wait till T5 because I don't have the bankroll to support the swings at T3.

[Dbs6582]

DBS. It's those 5 that worry me. Here is how a gunfight works with a pit boss. We draw our pistols, we aim, we shoot, I die.

Point taken! I haven't been backed off lately, but I remember one well. I was doing some serious damage (meant sarcastically) spreading from $10 to two hands of $40 and down about $300 when a big burly guy tapped me on the shoulder and said my action was no longer welcome. He was very rude, waited for me at the cage to cash out and then walked me to the door, making sure I went to my car. He was definite sending me a message. They didn't want me there. I was actually put in their data base and can't play at any of their casinos nationwide. This happened almost 10 years ago and I'm still in their data base. At that time, I probably wasn't even a winning player, at least I wasn't that night.

if this happened to me going from $10 to $40 and being down $300, I can only imagine what happens to people playing big money and actually winning. I'd rather not find out.