Risk of Ruin

**DSchles** · 10-07-2019, 02:06 PM

Originally Posted by DannyOcean

Hi, what level of risk of ruin to counters generally play on? I am switching from six deck to 8 deck and with my br, it makes sense to play two hands to raise my ev. However this jumps my risk of ruin from 1.1% to just under 4 %. At what level does risk of ruin become a concern?
Thank you

If it jumps your ROR, then you aren't betting the two hands optimally with respect to the one-hand amount. For example, suppose your optimal one-hand bet is $100. To bet two hands optimally, you should be betting 73% of that amount ($73) on each of the two hands. Since that is not practical, $75 will do. If you bet this way, ROR stays the same.

Don

**PinkChip** · 10-07-2019, 03:07 PM

Originally Posted by DSchles

If it jumps your ROR, then you aren't betting the two hands optimally with respect to the one-hand amount. For example, suppose your optimal one-hand bet is $100. To bet two hands optimally, you should be betting 73% of that amount ($73) on each of the two hands. Since that is not practical, $75 will do. If you bet this way, ROR stays the same.

Don

Sorry Don, I mistyped on my smartphone. I wanted to rate your post helpful but accidentally rated it not helpful. Cannot revert this as it seems...

**refinery** · 10-07-2019, 03:21 PM

Originally Posted by PinkChip

Sorry Don, I mistyped on my smartphone. I wanted to rate your post helpful but accidentally rated it not helpful. Cannot revert this as it seems...

I threw in a helpful to balance it out. Now it's net 0. Someone throw in a helpful so Don gets his net +1.

**DSchles** · 10-07-2019, 08:22 PM

Originally Posted by PinkChip

Sorry Don, I mistyped on my smartphone. I wanted to rate your post helpful but accidentally rated it not helpful. Cannot revert this as it seems...

Not to worry. I have never, ever looked at this feature.

Don

**ZeeBabar** · 10-08-2019, 04:40 AM

Originally Posted by DSchles

Not to worry. I have never, ever looked at this feature.

Don

Me neither, but it seems to matter to some folks how many "likes" or dislikes they get.

**James989** · 10-10-2019, 04:02 PM

Hi Don,

A sidebet, ev=+12.68%(player edge), Var = 8.87, Kelly ratio = 1, ROR = 13.53%, so :-

Bankroll(units) = 100 * Var/ev = 100*8.87/12.68 = 70 units

According to my understanding, the probability that I will loss this entire 70 units is 13.53% in the long run.

How many rounds played will consider as "long run" in this example ?

James