You are also discounting a possible natural draw from the second card.
Irrelevant. A 1.5 x payout is not the sort of variance we are concerned with. The reason why you adjust for variance is because of the prospect of losing multiple bets on a single hand, after splitting and doubling. That won't happen when you have a ten, because you won't split or double. You especially won't split after making an 8% of your bankroll wager.
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